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re: OFFICIAL Week 1 College Football Bet Thread
Posted on 9/7/15 at 5:23 pm to accnodefense
Posted on 9/7/15 at 5:23 pm to accnodefense
I understand what public money is, but does it only count when the % of bets placed on a team is over 50% when more than 50% of the money is on the other side? What ratio of bets to money have to be on a public team for it to be considered the public side?
1
Posted on 9/7/15 at 5:46 pm to SirWinston
frick it I'll throw a little on the twins for +175
Posted on 9/7/15 at 5:47 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
I understand what public money is, but does it only count when the % of bets placed on a team is over 50% when more than 50% of the money is on the other side? What ratio of bets to money have to be on a public team for it to be considered the public side?
I would say any team that is getting 2/3 or more of the money
Heavily favored name teams playing cupcake teams(i.e. Oklahoma vs. Akron, USC vs. Arkansas State this past weekend) are almost certainly going to be heavy public sides.
On the radio they said the 5 largest public plays of the week were Oklahoma, Florida State, USC, Georgia, and Arkansas. 4 of those 5 covered and Georgia probably would have if the game wasn't called.
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:00 pm to accnodefense
When I think of a single bet being bet by the public, I think of a large % of the bets being on 1 side, while the smart money and larger bet sizes are on the other.
Would Oklahoma still be considered the public side if the sharps also crushed the over? Obviously line movement would attempt to get the money back to 50/50. But, if sharps thought the line was low and pretty much everyone threw their money on Oklahoma, would betting Oklahoma at the original number be a square or public play?
People talk about public money and square bets in a really negative manor. Just wondering what percentage of bets need to be on a team for that side to be the public or square side.
Would Oklahoma still be considered the public side if the sharps also crushed the over? Obviously line movement would attempt to get the money back to 50/50. But, if sharps thought the line was low and pretty much everyone threw their money on Oklahoma, would betting Oklahoma at the original number be a square or public play?
People talk about public money and square bets in a really negative manor. Just wondering what percentage of bets need to be on a team for that side to be the public or square side.
quote:Do you try to avoid being on the public side?
I would say any team that is getting 2/3 or more of the money
This post was edited on 9/7/15 at 6:02 pm
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:02 pm to ReauxlTide222
Smart money isnt on every game. If public is 90% all the money is on that side
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:02 pm to blades8088
VT+14. Legggoooo 
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:04 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Do you try to avoid being on the public side?
As much as I can help it. Try to avoid it like the plague
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:04 pm to blades8088
53.5 seems high, right?
Va Tech isn't going to score a lot, but their defense is good and OSU has a lot of skill position players out...
Va Tech isn't going to score a lot, but their defense is good and OSU has a lot of skill position players out...
This post was edited on 9/7/15 at 6:05 pm
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:07 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:If the game is as close as everyone thinks, the under should be pretty safe........imo.
53.5 seems high, right?
Va Tech isn't going to score a lot, but their defense is good and OSU has a lot of skill position players out...
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:08 pm to ReauxlTide222
Got OSU at -13.5/-120.
In for 4 units, biggest play in prob three years
I think OSU wins 45-10 or so.
In for 4 units, biggest play in prob three years
I think OSU wins 45-10 or so.
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:09 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Do you try to avoid being on the public side?
Yes... not that the public is always wrong, but generally if the public is on one side there will be more value on the other. My "fade the public" strategy has given me 2 straight winning seasons. Not that fading the public is the only strategy I use, I make my bets and then look at the public money, but I feel better about my wagers if it is opposite the public side. So when I am capping games, I think "which side is the non-public side".
Being on the other side of the public cost me big this past Saturday. The public got killed on Thursday/Friday, but made up for it on Saturday.
I was 5-0 headed into Saturday and finished the week 9-6-1. I picked 4 road dogs that were heavy public fades and they all lost.
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:27 pm to tigerfoot
quote:
Got OSU at -13.5/-120.
In for 4 units, biggest play in prob three years
I think OSU wins 45-10 or so.
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:33 pm to accnodefense
I see. I weigh it as well. I don't know the stats regarding this, but it seems like it has more of a bearing on NFL games. My buddies will see the Colts being 6.5 point favorites at Jacksonville(made this up) and flip their shite, saying the Colts will win by 35. I don't bet on the NFL but I'm really mindful of the lines and home dogs and public money and shite. I feel like sharp bets and square bets don't hold AS much weight in college football, though.
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:33 pm to oleyeller
quote:
I know it's not popular opinion in this thread, but I'm with him. I think OSU beats em by 17+. I couldn't get it at 13.5, so I stayed away.
This post was edited on 9/7/15 at 6:39 pm
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:35 pm to tigerfoot
quote:
4 units
New to gambling what does this mean? 4 hundred?
I just got OSU at -13.5 after being indecisive all weekend.
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:36 pm to oleyeller
That's what I look like right now.
Dumb move, I had great little run this first week. But will be barely up if I miss.
Dumb move, I had great little run this first week. But will be barely up if I miss.
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:37 pm to Lazy But Talented
Say his bankroll is $1000, and his normal bet(unit) is $25. If he were to put 4 units on a game, he'd put $100 on it. It's just a way to show how much money one puts on a game without telling everyone how much the dollar figure is.
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:37 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
quote:
I know it's not popular opinion in this thread, but I'm with him. I think OSU beats me by 17+. I couldn't get it at 13.5, so I stayed away.
my reaction was more of the confidence in it (4 units) rather than thinking osu wins big. I could see osu winning 17-20 or also it being a 3 point game. I just dont have enough confidence to lay 4 units on it lol.
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:39 pm to Lazy But Talented
quote:
quote:
4 units
New to gambling what does this mean? 4 hundred?
I just got OSU at -13.5 after being indecisive all weekend.
depends on the person. Its their normal betting amount. Mine is $50, some peoples is $25, some $100.
Posted on 9/7/15 at 6:40 pm to oleyeller
quote:Now I'm with you on that. Good luck to everyone. I only need OSU to win by 2...so I'm gonna kick back and watch this one stress free(jinx?).
I just dont have enough confidence to lay 4 units on it lol.
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