re: OFFICIAL Week 1 CFB Bet Thread™

I've got no opinion on that total. Need to see what Sumlin has installed before I bet an aTm total.

Hate when my post ends a page so I'll repeat.

I'm now on Ga Tech +8 and Boise +7 for week one, 2-3 more plays under evaluation...

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ChemE, what are your reasons for Boise?

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Start with Joe Southwick. Much has been made of K Moore's departure but the fact of the matter is he made good decisions and stayed within Boise's system. His physical tools were very limited. Southwick offers mobility and experience in a proven system. I do not expect much of a drop off in efficiency. To this point Southwick has completed 77% of his passes.

Mich St offense vs Boise D. Yes, it's true, the top 4 leading tacklers in Boise's system have moved on and this is an area of concern. Fortunately, Mich St will be running a vanilla offense while Maxwell gets his feet wet and Boise will be able to stack the box since 3 of the 4 secondary starters are returning for the Broncos. Mich St's 3 top receivers have moved on and the new guys will be facing an experienced group.

Boise offense vs Mich St D. Already discussed Moore's replacement but here's the rest. Mich St returns all 3 starting LBs but will have matchup issues unless they run nickel. Trenton Robinson made up for Adams/Dennard's mistakes last year, with him gone the DBs will have to take less risks. Boise may struggle to run the ball but don't underestimate Harper's success in BSU's zone blocking scheme.

Intangibles. Mich St is facing some of the highest expectations in school history with Ohio St, Penn St, and Wisconsin in flux while Boise should be feeling less pressure. D'Antoni tends to move towards the conservative side in big games while Petersen does not hesitate to exploit mismatches.

Prediction. I project a Mich St win 23-21 with Boise having opportunities to win SU.

ETA - Lots of public money on Mich St and line is holding (even moving against public at Pinny) so there's that as well.

I was leaning towards Miami as well if I were to play that game, just not sure yet. I might play it in a small tease.

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Start with Joe Southwick. Much has been made of K Moore's departure but the fact of the matter is he made good decisions and stayed within Boise's system. His physical tools were very limited. Southwick offers mobility and experience in a proven system. I do not expect much of a drop off in efficiency. To this point Southwick has completed 77% of his passes.

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Yeah he completed 77% of his passes when Boise was winning 70-0 against Idaho...

I can't think of a much tougher way for the 185lb kid to start his career than on the road in front of 75,000 on Friday night. Boise has 9 new starters on D. Le'Veon Bell is going to have a field day.

The line movement is irrelevant to me. Especially for the first game of the season.

Sounds like you've got it figured out. You should bet Mich St. Good luck.

Games in Atlanta. Neutral site.

Recent line changes:
Texas A&M (-7.5) v. Louisiana Tech (Shreveport) (up)
Washington State at BYU (-13.5) (down)
Minnesota (-8.5) at UNLV (up)

Notre Dame (-16.5) v. Navy (Dublin, Ireland) (down)
Miami-OH at Ohio State (-23) (up)
Southern Miss at Nebraska (-20) (up)
Miami at Boston College (even) (down)
Clemson (-3) v. Auburn (Atlanta) (down)
Hawaii at USC (-40) (up)
Michigan v. Alabama (-13) (Dallas) (up)
Oklahoma (-30.5) at UTEP (up)

Well which of the 3 stops you?

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Locked in Mich St. -7 (-105) at 5 units. I'm probably going to keep a record this year. Each unit is $20.

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I've hated Boise ever since they started making their ridiculous run. Part of me wants to pick them to cover their end of the deal, especially since the public is swinging towards Sparty....but I know the minute I do, I'm going to be shafted by the team I once hated.