re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 5

UCF is +7.5 on most offshore books. Which book are you waiting for?

Went and pulled up last years Week 7 thread. The week Texas Tech beat West Virginia when the whole world was on West Virginia.

I almost didn't play the line because my numbers liked Texas Tech in the spot but it just didn't feel like they were getting nearly enough points for me to feel ok about it.

My numbers feel the same way about Arkansas this week, and the line looks like it will open up less than a touchdown.

(2012) OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™

The difference in that was West Virginia was just not very good last year, but everyone loved them because they could score points... Texas A&M is much much better than Arkansas. There is no one who can stop A&M's offense. I realize their defense is not good, but we're also not talking about a good Arkansas team. This isn't even as good as Nutt's Arkansas teams.

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Tread lightly my friends...

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team DG


frick team Vegas

Maybe so. But I don't think he has the talent level. And I guess my main point was that, while I did fall into the trap and learn the hard way last year, West Virginia was a complete fraud. Hot garbage.... Texas A&M is legit.

The Early List of Possibles:

South Alabama
Texas State
Wash State
Kentucky
Wake Forest
Notre Dame
Southern Cal
Cal
Arizona
Arkansas St
Boston College
W Mich
C Mich
Purdue

Lol, I've got to get to work this morning so I'm not going to argue with you, but this is statement is so flawed.

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The difference in that was West Virginia was just not very good last year, but everyone loved them because they could score points...

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West Virginia had just beaten Baylor and won at Texas, they were 5-0 and ranked #5 in the country. Who has Texas A&M beat so far? Are you hanging your hat on their backdoor cover against Bama?

2012 Week 7 NCAAFB Rankings

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There is no one who can stop A&M's offense. I realize their defense is not good, but we're also not talking about a good Arkansas team.

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West Virginia came into the the game scoring 52 points per, Texas A&M comes in the game scoring 52 points per. Everyone was arguing the exact same logic about Texas Tech last season.


I am not coming on here to tell everyone to bet Arkansas, the line hasn't even come out yet. I am just telling anyone who thinks betting the house on Texas A&M in this spot to tread lightly. I am not Nostradamus, I can not predict the future. All I can do is use the information provided in front of me to try and gain an advantage multiple times a week to net a positive result in the end. My methods and approach are different than the majority of this boards, I'm not coming on here to beat my chest and say I am smarter than you or anyone else. I just know that from time to time something jumps out to me that is overlooked without digging really deep in to the numbers, numbers that I have spent years and a great deal of time developing, and I try and share that insight with all of you.

Its gonna be tamu -7

A&M doesnt have a run D. Arkansas is built around their run game.... Regardless, i probably won't play it. Too many better lines out there. Arkansas has faced noone

I think Vegas knows the public will see a few things.

A) Arkansas lost to Rutgers
B) Johnny Manziel
C) TAMU 'carving up' Bama's D
D) Johnny Manziel

The public will be on A&M at -13 still. Hell, they'd be on them at -17 probably. I don't think they see a reason to overexpose themselves if they can inflate the line and still get money on TAMU. Just like Bama's lines have been inflated for the past few years most weeks.