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re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 3

Posted on 9/8/13 at 8:29 pm to
Posted by kkhere
Member since Nov 2009
428 posts
Posted on 9/8/13 at 8:29 pm to
What I have locked in so far:

Oregon -23
Maryland -8
WKU -9.5
Bama -9
Arizona State -5.5
Auburn -6.5
Duke +8
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
30237 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 8:18 am to
1) Walk into work Monday morning
2) Get told you won 2 quarters in the LSU office pool (squares)
3)????
4) Profit

Posted by redfieldk717
Alec Box
Member since Oct 2011
28117 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 8:48 am to
whole account going on louisville
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 9:08 am to
Line moves are going to price me out of a few of these games. Hopefully we'll see some buy back during the week. Hell, the A&M game might get high enough to jump in on the side I was expecting to fade.
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
30237 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 9:15 am to
quote:

Line moves are going to price me out of a few of these games. Hopefully we'll see some buy back during the week.


Yeah no kidding. Missed a day of checking lines and the Oregon game I wanted goes up almost 5 points.

If your buyback theory doesn't occur, it may be "The Week of the Teasers" for me.

Already got the one for Oregon and Louisville I posted earlier.
Posted by Billy Mays
Member since Jan 2009
25311 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 9:24 am to
I like so far:

Louisville -13 @ UK
Ohio +7 vs Marshall
Bowling Green +3 @ Indiana
Colorado +9.5 vs Fresno

Leans:
UCF +7 @ Penn St.
Will look at Bama in a teaser
Posted by PurpleAndGold86
Member since Jun 2012
11036 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 9:26 am to
SportsBook hasn't even posted their damn lines yet this week. Normally they post on Sunday night. This is very strange.
Posted by touchdown moses
eunice, LA
Member since Nov 2009
6024 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 9:33 am to
Couldnt help it
locked in teaser
bama -3
Lville -6.5
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
30237 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 10:18 am to
What's worse? Bama's o-line or aTm's defense?

I don't like the aTm/Bama game one bit. That offense they run always has Saban nervous.
Posted by sgallo3
Dorne
Member since Sep 2008
24747 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 10:23 am to
I think im gonna play A&M. Hopefully the line goes up a little. Love TCU with Boykins starting. I killed it in the nfl this weekend, think i made the most money ive ever made in a week last week, hopefully keep it goin
Posted by wish i was tebow
The Golf Board
Member since Feb 2009
46122 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 10:41 am to
aTm D. that allows Bama to mask their Oline problems
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
30237 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 10:53 am to
quote:

aTm D. that allows Bama to mask their Oline problems


I would tend to agree. I still don't know about the game as a whole though.

Normally I would be confident with Saban at the helm, but aTm went into Bama and beat them on their own field against an insanely good defense. Plus Saban absolutely cannot stand playing against the type of offense aTm runs.

Gun to my head, I'd take Bama. It's gonna be a no play for me unless some new freak information pops up between now and game time though.
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25607 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 11:14 am to
Lots of things different between this game and last year's game.


Early November game compared to a late September game. Less injuries. Less season long fatigue. Both teams will be fresher, which I think plays to the advantage of the more talented team (which I believe is Bama).

1st year facing a QB like Manziel year compared to a 2nd year is always different. I don't even think Cam would have had the success he did if he stayed a 2nd year.

Our O-line got pushed around by VT. Small sample size, but it is a concern in my mind. I think we will see AJ roll out a bit more. More quick slants. He will have options to get rid of the ball more.

That TAMU D is not what it was last year, while I think Bama's D is as good, if not better than last years stifling defense.

If it gets back to -7, I'm hammering it. I'll probably lay the money line, as well include it in some teasers.

While I'm nervous as a fan about the game, I see this game being Bama from start to finish.
Posted by LSUAlum2001
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
47196 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 11:15 am to
Lets put together a little scenario..

Thursday best bet (if applicable)
Friday best bet (if applicable)
11:00 best bet
02:30 best bet
06:00 best bet

..and should there be a consensus:

09:30 best bet (if applicable)

I want to throw $100 and roll it over each bet 4-6 times in a CFB weekend.

$100 4x would be $1600
This post was edited on 9/9/13 at 11:17 am
Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25607 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 11:20 am to
UCLA +5.5 against the Huskers.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80859 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 11:40 am to
Still have money on Oddsmaker and their Oregon/Tenn line is ridiculous. Opened everywhere at 22, siting at 25 most places...oddsmaker has 27. I put a large chunk on Tennessee at +27

I expect some line regression as the week goes no. I don't think the line will continue to shift after already moving 5 points.

Posted by bamafan425
Jackson's Hole
Member since Jan 2009
25607 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 11:46 am to
Up around 26/26.5 most places now.

I'm gonna try and time it at it's peak and take Tennessee as well as the under.

So far for the week, I have:
UCLA +4.5
TTech +3.5
Louisville -10
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
30237 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 11:51 am to
quote:

Lets put together a little scenario..

Thursday best bet (if applicable)
Friday best bet (if applicable)
11:00 best bet
02:30 best bet
06:00 best bet

..and should there be a consensus:


I would imagine Louisville will be the consensus for whatever time they play.
Posted by BeYou
DFW
Member since Oct 2012
6027 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 11:52 am to
Just want to mention that the OU QB, Trevor Knight, won't be playing against Tulsa this week due to injury.

Not that it really matters because their offense has looked like shite with him as QB.
Posted by sgallo3
Dorne
Member since Sep 2008
24747 posts
Posted on 9/9/13 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

UCLA +5.5 against the Huskers.


Yessir!
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