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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 1
Posted on 8/26/13 at 9:27 pm to ChemE in the OP
Posted on 8/26/13 at 9:27 pm to ChemE in the OP
3
Posted on 8/26/13 at 9:32 pm to ChemE in the OP
never seen that before. interesting
Posted on 8/26/13 at 9:34 pm to Carson123987
Is Bryant Monfiz still at Hawaii?
Posted on 8/26/13 at 9:34 pm to ChemE in the OP
Adding LSU/TCU under 50.5 to the slate...
Ole Miss -3
Bama/VaTech u46.5
LSU/TCU u50.5
Seems a bit surreal NCAAF is here Thursday.
Ole Miss -3
Bama/VaTech u46.5
LSU/TCU u50.5
Seems a bit surreal NCAAF is here Thursday.
Posted on 8/26/13 at 11:33 pm to ChemE in the OP
I don't think the guy who created the power rankings knows anything.
It looks like that the only thing he did was take the Vegas line for W1 and arbitrarily assign power rankings to achieve the spread.
Like:
LSU 76 & TCU 74. The line is -4
Alabama 88 & Virginia Tech 68. The line is -18.5 to -20
Those numbers are unadjusted due to playing at a neutral site.
Ohio State 78 (81 with HF) & Buffalo 46. The line is -35.5
It looks like that the only thing he did was take the Vegas line for W1 and arbitrarily assign power rankings to achieve the spread.
Like:
LSU 76 & TCU 74. The line is -4
Alabama 88 & Virginia Tech 68. The line is -18.5 to -20
Those numbers are unadjusted due to playing at a neutral site.
Ohio State 78 (81 with HF) & Buffalo 46. The line is -35.5
Posted on 8/27/13 at 2:13 am to LSUAlum2001
"Again, these aren’t how I personally see the teams. This is my guess at how “the market” as a composite of oddsmakers and sharps see the teams. To this point, the public hasn’t bet much. So…current “as we speak” pointspreads are generally a composite of oddsmaker openers plus sharp adjustments."
So, yes, you're exactly right and he says that in his post. The value is in seeing these numbers evolve week by week. Or in applying these numbers to a game you have highlighted weeks from now and seeing the variation when it arrives...
So, yes, you're exactly right and he says that in his post. The value is in seeing these numbers evolve week by week. Or in applying these numbers to a game you have highlighted weeks from now and seeing the variation when it arrives...
This post was edited on 8/27/13 at 2:36 am
Posted on 8/27/13 at 6:25 am to ChemE in the OP
In the coming weeks, when two teams play who already have values, whose rating due you adjust to fit the line?
Posted on 8/27/13 at 6:45 am to LSUAlum2001
I normally look for over-adjustments throughout the year and either back or fade that team. That link I sent should be adjusted week by week so take a snapshot of it and watch how it evolves.
Teams like Bama won't move but some will change drastically. You just have to decide if the adjustment is appropriate or not.
Teams like Bama won't move but some will change drastically. You just have to decide if the adjustment is appropriate or not.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:01 am to ChemE in the OP
Going to Vegas this weekend with the missus. Never been to Vegas or a sportsbook before. Any tips for a newbie? Staying at NY NY Friday to Monday. Planning on spending the majority of Saturday at one of the big sportsbooks in the south strip (MGM? or Mandalay Bay?)
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:06 am to Cowbells
MGM and Mandalays books suck. Go to Bellagio, Mirage or Palazzo
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:11 am to SDVTiger
upfront apology incase this question has been beat to death, but I need a good online site for the season.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:14 am to PapaPogey
5 Dimes, if they set you up with a visa allowed deposit account.
They gave me a MG/WU only and I told them no thanks.
They gave me a MG/WU only and I told them no thanks.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:16 am to LSUAlum2001
Yeah I looked at them but I don't have a Visa card. I had a local guy a few years ago, but I burned bridges with him and need somewhere to go.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:17 am to PapaPogey
Bookmaker is another good one.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:24 am to LSUAlum2001
what's the deal with Visa? Id rather not be getting shite in the mail. Why can't I just put my Mastercard in somewhere? 
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:31 am to PapaPogey
i do 5dimes and just pay by western union because i have a master card as well
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:31 am to SDVTiger
quote:
MGM and Mandalays books suck. Go to Bellagio, Mirage or Palazzo
What, MGM and Mandalay are 2 of my favorites.
MGM is a bit small and cramped and not as many seating options, but if you can get a seat it is good.
Mandalay is one of the bigger ones. Only gripe is that the seats aren't comfortable.
Bellagio sucks. Not enough seats and if its crowded you have to pay to sit. Why waste money to sit at a book?
Mirage is good.
Palazzo is a restaurant. If you aren't going to get any food, go elsewhere or they will kick you out
My books of choice on the strip are LVH, Mandalay Bay, Luxor, MGM, and Mirage. Though overall I prefer Palms or Hard Rock but they are off strip and you have to pay to sit on football days.
Treasure Island/Flamingo are good on non football days, because it is small yet gets the job done.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:33 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Adding LSU/TCU under 50.5 to the slate...
I think this under may be the best under on the entire card this week.
Just not seeing either team have explosive offensive output. If a team wins in a blowout it will be something like 38-10 not 59-28.
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:48 am to redfieldk717
Posted on 8/27/13 at 12:00 pm to PapaPogey
Ygm
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