re: NCAA Tournament Betting Thread

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I am confident in UNO -1 tonight.

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it's who i bet, their conference is much better.

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Why is everyone so locked on Marquette... South Carolina looks like a horrible matchup for them. Everything Marquette is great at, South Carolina is great at stopping. Marquette ranks 7th in Offensive Efficiency according to KenPom, South Carolina ranks 7th defensively. Marquette ranks 6th in Effective FG% and 75th in turnovers. South Carolina, defensively, ranks 12th and 4th in those categories. It's the classic irresistable force running against the immovable object.

Until we get to the other side of the ball, where South Carolina is 45th in Off. rebounding and 66th in FTA/FGA. Marquette ranks 166th and 194th in those categories on defense.

It seems that South Carolina excels in stopping the thing Marquette is good at, and Marquette is bad at stopping the things South Carolina is relatively decent at doing offensively. I don't see this as a Marquette slam dunk at all.

What am I missing?

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You're missing the fact that the vast majority of people analyzing this game aren't doing it to this level. It's "struggling SEC team meets Big East team who can shoot"

Nobody betting this year?

i always wait till halftime to make 2nd half plays. like a dummy, when cal was down 12, i took cal+6

i wait 6? more minutes and they were +16 at half, instead of sweating the game till last 2nd, i could of had easy winner. coming back from down 20 to lose by 7 was tough one

loss on ncc
Won on IPFW

loss on Syracuse - 4 2nd half (won 2nd half by 3)
won fairfield + 1/2 2nd half (tied on points 2nd half)

went san fran +1 2nd half
UMKC +2 2nd half
washington NBA under 207 1/2 all live bets. these have saved my bacon.

I'm on ETSU and MTSU big.

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You can make up for the UNO loss by doubling down against Mount St. Mary's.

Villanova is going to absolutely destroy them.

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I wouldn't feel comfortable laying 26.5 in a tourney game especially against a regular season single bid league conference champion whom stats show play better in the tournament than non regular season champs from single bid leagues

bailing myself back out

have usc - 5 1/2 2nd half
illinois st - 3 1/2 2nd half
sf austin +165

I do pretty well overall in the NCAAT. I tend to use analytic data projections vs. the spread and then sweetheart tease the hell out.

Here are the plays I like (Bovada lines, almost everything gets teased +8/10):

Virginia -7
Xavier +2
St. Mary's CA -4.5
Wisconsin -5.5
Oklahoma State +2.5
Butler -11
West Virginia -14
Northwestern +2.5
Marquette +1
Minnesota +1
Notre Dame -7
Florida State -12
Arizona -17
Purdue -10

I mix and match a lot +8/10 to those lines.

Others I like, but not committed yet:
Baylor -12
Wichita St -6

I am laying off:
Oregon, Florida, Creighton games. Generally I bet every game NCAAT just for thrills.

Good call,