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re: Kentucky Derby Discussion Thread

Posted on 5/7/16 at 7:18 pm to
Posted by Overbrook
Member since May 2013
6357 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 7:18 pm to
Don't be modest. you took 1-2.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
116792 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 7:24 pm to
We did

Horse that won is his absolute favorite though
Posted by WildcatMike
Lexington, KY
Member since Dec 2005
43614 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 7:43 pm to
Damn you chicken. You hit it.

I told Bho yesterday I would regret not putting Nyquist in my bets. Had Exaggerator and Gun Runner. frick, what could had been. Oh well, had a kick arse dinner at Middlefork to make up. Only lost $20....but I could had bought dinner tonight if I just put Nyquist.
Posted by WildcatMike
Lexington, KY
Member since Dec 2005
43614 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 7:47 pm to
Awesome Aspy...happy stable tonight!
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
116792 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 7:52 pm to
I knew I would regret no exaggerator, but I just dislike them...

Had gun runner/nyquist/outwork/creator box.

I an a loser : lol:
Posted by SuperSaint
Sorting Out OT BS Since '2007'
Member since Sep 2007
147956 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 8:11 pm to
I had the 11-13-5 Tri, needed about 30 more yards of track
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24806 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 8:17 pm to
quote:

I had the 11-13-5 Tri, needed about 30 more yards of track



So Mohaymen could run third?
Posted by vengeanceofrain
depends
Member since Jun 2013
12465 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 9:55 pm to
;i think what's irking me is that we just watched 2 days of racing, and everyone knows for the most part, we didn't see the best 3YO in the country run in either race.

There is only one thing that's gonna satisfy me at this point. I want to see Songbird and I want to see Nyquist in the same starting gate, preferably in the haskall.


Beating these scrubs isn't doing much.
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24806 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 10:07 pm to
quote:

I want to see Songbird and I want to see Nyquist in the same starting gate, preferably in the haskall.


You know this probably isn't going to happen. I hate Nyquist. Always have, but he beat me into submission after Florida Derby. I mean he comes home like a $3500 claimer at River Downs, but always hangs on. In fact, I didn't realize until late that HE HAS NEVER BEEN PASSED. He is a nice horse, the richest horse entering and exiting the Derby. I always pull for the Triple Crown, but honestly, he belongs nowhere near those horses and I'd like to say he has no shot in the Belmont, but who's going to beat him? He could literally get a super easy pace there and come home a winner.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
116792 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 10:22 pm to
There is something to be said for heart and the desire to win.

Btw, a pretty hilarious thread on the it right now about the derby. Apparently one guy owned a horse once so he knows racing is cruel.
Posted by BRgetthenet
Member since Oct 2011
118227 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 10:23 pm to
He probably rode it too.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
116792 posts
Posted on 5/7/16 at 10:25 pm to


Posted by vengeanceofrain
depends
Member since Jun 2013
12465 posts
Posted on 5/8/16 at 12:22 am to
quote:

You know this probably isn't going to happen. I hate Nyquist. Always have, but he beat me into submission after Florida Derby. I mean he comes home like a $3500 claimer at River Downs, but always hangs on. In fact, I didn't realize until late that HE HAS NEVER BEEN PASSED. He is a nice horse, the richest horse entering and exiting the Derby. I always pull for the Triple Crown, but honestly, he belongs nowhere near those horses and I'd like to say he has no shot in the Belmont, but who's going to beat him? He could literally get a super easy pace there and come home a winner.



I can say pretty confidently he wont' win the Triple Crown. He's not that good. physics and shite eventually will catch up with him.

The gap between the best 3YO colt and the 2nd best, is so drastic tho, and it's not becuase the 3YO colt is American Phraoh level good. a month from now, the wear and tear will show up and a horse that's fresh will have a significant advantage.


There is no one in racing i hate more than Zayat, but i can respect talent and alweays liked American Phraoah because it was clear he belonged. This horse does not.


There's eventually come a point with songbird, where there's nothing left to prove against fillies, and that point is going to come sooner rather than later. I say after the coaching club american oaks or at worse the Beldame, there's just not gonna be a point anymore. There was no way the owner was gonna do Eight Bells 2.0 considering he was the owner of Eight Bells 1.0 but i think he eventually will run her against boys.


really isn't that big a deal as people make it out to be running against colts, ti's what you do when you literally cannot lose against fillies. it will eventually happen. but this was just too early.
This post was edited on 5/8/16 at 12:25 am
Posted by vengeanceofrain
depends
Member since Jun 2013
12465 posts
Posted on 5/8/16 at 3:18 am to
Lani is gonna win the belmont. I believe that wast he end game all along.
Posted by vengeanceofrain
depends
Member since Jun 2013
12465 posts
Posted on 5/8/16 at 3:34 am to
for anyone interested this is the pedigree predictions for the now run derby LINK

Nyquist was towardst he bottom of the list. This is pedigree / stanima only not performance.


Chef De Race are the most influential sires in horse racing. They get broken down into 1 of 4 categories B(Brilliant), I(Intermediate), C(Classic) or S(Stainima) or P(professional)


i say 4 because i've never seen a P in a real pedigree before.


brilliant = early developing. the sire has a knack for producing early developing horses (ex.Nasrullah)

intermediate = middle distance type horses / sprinters / early speed. (ex. El Prado)

Classic- has a nack for producing classic distance horses (ex. A.P Indy)


Stanma = provides stanima to offspring (ex. Secretariat)


honestly don't know what p means.


Each Chef De Race is worth 16 points. First generation is worth 16, 2nd generation is worth 8, 3rd generation is worth 4, 4th generation is worth 2. this is how you get a horses dosage. any horse with a dosage over 4 at least in the past, you could throw out in the derby. not so much anymore. the lower the number, the further their pedigree suggests they can run

jesus Nyquist has a dosage of 7 frick my life lol


i don't feel like researching but that might be legit the highest ever.
This post was edited on 5/8/16 at 3:45 am
Posted by Kcrad
Diamondhead
Member since Nov 2010
64858 posts
Posted on 5/8/16 at 6:51 am to
I love to watch the fillies run the derby.

What was that filly who won the derby in the mid 80's?

Genuine risk and Winning Colors. I made some cash on her.
Posted by WildcatMike
Lexington, KY
Member since Dec 2005
43614 posts
Posted on 5/8/16 at 8:24 am to
So, you made cash in 1980 and 1988?
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
140703 posts
Posted on 5/8/16 at 12:43 pm to
I wonder if Nyquist Exaggerator will become Affirmed Alydar type rivalry?

Nyquist is 4-0 vs him and each win is becoming closer to defeat.

Posted by Kcrad
Diamondhead
Member since Nov 2010
64858 posts
Posted on 5/8/16 at 1:04 pm to
Yep at Whiteys on Downman Rd. Blackie ran a book out of a cigar box. Great times.


How old do you think I am.
This post was edited on 5/8/16 at 1:05 pm
Posted by Kcrad
Diamondhead
Member since Nov 2010
64858 posts
Posted on 5/8/16 at 1:22 pm to
I was born in 1962. My dad would bring to Whiteys when I was 12.

Those ice cold Dixie's plus the crawdads were great.

I was the King of Krewe of whiteys in the mid 80's.

Fun times.
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