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re: IYO, which active MLB players will be first ballot HOFers?
Posted on 7/17/17 at 11:18 pm to ZZTIGERS
Posted on 7/17/17 at 11:18 pm to ZZTIGERS
Rizzo
Maybe not 1st ballot. But he's building an impressive resume and is consistent as they come
If he stays healthy, you're looking at 300+ homers before he turns 32. He's the best defensive 1st baseman and he's the leader of this Cubs team that'll be together for a bit. I'm a homer, but the lack of respect he gets is surprising
Maybe not 1st ballot. But he's building an impressive resume and is consistent as they come
If he stays healthy, you're looking at 300+ homers before he turns 32. He's the best defensive 1st baseman and he's the leader of this Cubs team that'll be together for a bit. I'm a homer, but the lack of respect he gets is surprising
This post was edited on 7/17/17 at 11:30 pm
0
Posted on 7/18/17 at 7:26 am to VADawg
quote:
Trout, Harper and Kershaw will get there in all likelihood, but if they all decided to quit tomorrow I don't think they're there yet.
Trout and Harper wouldn't even be on the ballot if they retired after this season, because they don't have 10 years in the league. Same with Rizzo, Bumgarner, Posey, and others mentioned.
Kershaw would be at exactly 10 seasons... that would be an interesting case.
*Technically the committee can allow an exception, but that's typically only happened when a player died.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 8:43 am to LSUBoo
Discussing players like Rizzo, Trout, and Harper in this subject is just such a speculative thing to do. Who the hell knows what will happen to them over the next 10 years. Of course all three have the talent to be first ballot HOFers but we all know that doesn't just automatically play out
If you want to have the discussion about them that's perfectly fine but incredibly hard to predict with much accuracy
If you want to have the discussion about them that's perfectly fine but incredibly hard to predict with much accuracy
Posted on 7/18/17 at 8:56 am to tduecen
quote:
Dude is 27 with 234 home runs, he may not get 500 if he can't stay healthy
Which is more than Barry Bonds,Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome and others at the age of 27. Obviously it's a big if, and Stanton has shown he can't stay healthy, but I'm a believer. The best of stanton has yet to come.
This post was edited on 7/18/17 at 8:59 am
Posted on 7/18/17 at 9:23 am to ZZTIGERS
I think the only sure fire first ballot guy in baseball right now is Pujols. Cabrera will be I think in another year or so.
Ichiro should be but he won't because the baseball writers are a bunch of fake tough guys on their high horses.
If his career goes on the current trajectory, Kershaw will be 1st ballot. Same for Trout.
Joey Votto will not be a hall of famer. I think the only guys from your second list that have a shot are Felix and Beltre. I think Beltran lost too much time to injury.
Ichiro should be but he won't because the baseball writers are a bunch of fake tough guys on their high horses.
If his career goes on the current trajectory, Kershaw will be 1st ballot. Same for Trout.
Joey Votto will not be a hall of famer. I think the only guys from your second list that have a shot are Felix and Beltre. I think Beltran lost too much time to injury.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 9:27 am to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
Do most ppl not think Yadi will land In the hall eventually? I'm not trying to say he's absolutely good enough but he's arguably the best defensive catcher of all time and he's been solid for a catcher at the plate
I don't think he'll get in. But I know many around the game think he eventually will.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 9:30 am to LSUBoo
quote:
Kershaw would be at exactly 10 seasons... that would be an interesting case.
Kershaw has 3 CY Youngs and another 3 top 5 finishes
Only two modern era players with WAR7's higher than Kershaw aren't in the HOF, Schilling and Halladay. Halladay will make it in for sure and Schilling is a maybe but he'll pass him anyway this season.
His career ERA+ is 164 is currently the highest in baseball history, the next closest starter is pedro at 154
Kershaw could peace out and be a stone cold lock for the HOF.
Trouts WAR7 for a CF after this year will rank him only Mays, Mantle, Cobb, Speaker....and that's with basically only 6 seasons. Seasons be damned, he's a HOF.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 9:36 am to Wishnitwas1998
quote:
Yadi
quote:
he's arguably the best defensive catcher of all time
Posted on 7/18/17 at 10:01 am to barry
quote:
Trouts WAR7 for a CF after this year will rank him only Mays, Mantle, Cobb, Speaker....and that's with basically only 6 seasons. Seasons be damned, he's a HOF.
The average HOF CF has a career WAR of 71.2. Trout has a career WAR of 51.8. The average JAWS score for a HOF CF is 57.3. Trout obviously has a career JAWS score of 51.8 since he hasn't played seven seasons yet. As great as Trout is, he just hasn't played long enough to reach those benchmarks yet. Trout will turn 27 on August 2018. He'll likely have a career WAR and JAWS score over 60 by then. By that time, I don't think anybody will question his HOF credentials.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 10:16 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
The average HOF CF has a career WAR of 71.2. Trout has a career WAR of 51.8. The average JAWS score for a HOF CF is 57.3. Trout obviously has a career JAWS score of 51.8 since he hasn't played seven seasons yet. As great as Trout is, he just hasn't played long enough to reach those benchmarks yet.
You don't have to reach "career" benchmarks when you've been the best hitter in baseball for 5 consecutive years. He should have at a MINIMUM 4 MVP's and likely 5 if writers weren't dumb and like but but RBI's!!!
If trout got hit by a bus tomorrow I guarantee he'd be in the HOF. It's not just about an overall career, its about peak also and his peak is GOAT level good.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 10:21 am to barry
quote:
He should have at a MINIMUM 4 MVP's and likely 5 if writers weren't dumb
Isn't it those same dumb writers who decide who goes into the HoF?
Posted on 7/18/17 at 10:23 am to Master of Sinanju
quote:
Isn't it those same dumb writers who decide who goes into the HoF?
I'm not arguing if they would put him in, I'm arguing if he's a HOF.
Hopefully the new proposed restrictions on the BBWA get put into effect. They have dudes voting who haven't worked in 20 years.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 10:35 am to barry
quote:
If trout got hit by a bus tomorrow I guarantee he'd be in the HOF.
I agree, but mostly because of the bus thing.
But, if he just decided after this season to quit baseball and take up knitting as a hobby, he wouldn't.
I think Kershaw could retire after this season and make it in, but it wouldn't be first ballot.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 10:39 am to LSUBoo
quote:
But, if he just decided after this season to quit baseball and take up knitting as a hobby, he wouldn't.
disagree, plus he's seems more like a gardening kind of guy
quote:
I think Kershaw could retire after this season and make it in, but it wouldn't be first ballot.
Agree-ish
Posted on 7/18/17 at 10:43 am to barry
quote:
disagree, plus he's seems more like a gardening kind of guy
If Trout retires after this season, he won't even be eligible for the HOF... his name will not even be on the ballot. Those curmudgeons aren't going to make an exception for someone who willingly walked away from the game.
I'd actually bet on surfing.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 11:11 am to cheesesteak501
quote:
hich is more than Barry Bonds,Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome and others at the age of 27. Obviously it's a big if, and Stanton has shown he can't stay healthy, but I'm a believer. The best of stanton has yet to come.
I'm not arguing one side or the other but there were some other things some of the players you listed were allowed to do that Stanton won't be...
This post was edited on 7/18/17 at 11:29 am
Posted on 7/18/17 at 11:28 am to barry
What a convincing argument, very impressive Barry 
Posted on 7/18/17 at 12:33 pm to barry
You think Haaladay is a sure bet?
Posted on 7/18/17 at 12:49 pm to Lester Earl
I think Halladay is pretty marginal... a shame because he was one of my favorites to watch.
Posted on 7/18/17 at 2:50 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
You think Haaladay is a sure bet?
His career was basically over at 34 because of injuries, so i don't think its fair to dock him since he had a very good peak before that. Even with that his WAR is still 45th all time for SP. Not too shabby.
2 Cy Youngs
5 other top 5 Cy young voting finishes
Every modern era pitcher with a higher WAR7(sum of 7 top WAR seasons) is in the HOF
Higher WAR7 than:
Koufax
Drysdale
Glavine
Ryan
Smoltz
Sutton
His career ERA+ is tied for 36th all time
eta: IMO I think there are 3 types of HOF candidates
All-time greats:
High Peak plus above average play for 15+ seasons
Lesser players:
Above average play for 15+ seasons
High peak for 7+ seasons
This post was edited on 7/18/17 at 2:55 pm
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