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re: If Andrew Luck Wins the Rookie of the Year

Posted on 12/19/12 at 10:34 am to
Posted by FootballNostradamus
Member since Nov 2009
20509 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 10:34 am to
quote:

This is a 2 dog race.

Wilson should be a distant 3rd.


Why? Other than preseason hype.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73904 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 10:43 am to
He's basically doing what RG3 is doing except he inherited a way better team and he only needs to score 16 points a game to win.
Posted by marchballer
The Greatest Country on Earth
Member since Aug 2008
4121 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 10:48 am to
Wilson has a stud defense in Seattle helping him out.

I think you are missing the point. The Colts rely on Andrew Luck throwing way more than the Skins rely on RG3. Luck has turned around this football team to a playoff team. He doesnt have a run game to fall back on. All the Colts have is his arm. From the 1st pick in the draft to a wild card team in the playoffs is enough for me to give him the award.
Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31210 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 11:07 am to
quote:

It's more like he's a guy winning the home run title in 250 ABs.

No, batting average. RG3 is winning percentages. Yes, he is having a statistically nicer year, but he is not the same impact on each. He is an Alex Smith with speed. Both are good, above-average QB's, but they are generally not relied on to be the game changers.

quote:

He has a better completion%, td% and int% which negates your attempts logic.


The old Tyson Chandler argument. There are people who push for players with high-efficiency ratings to get more touches, no matter the sport, but the reason they are so efficient is that they are not relied on to have high-usage.

RG3 throwing 35 times a game with a pro-style offense and not risking injury by running about 10 designed runs a game would result in statistically inferior games by a landslide to what he is doing now.

Another factor is that RG3 has been incredibly lucky with his receiving core. They have been really fricking good, regardless of their names.

I saw Santana Moss catch a screen pass and ran straight down the middle of the field for a 40-yard TD. The defense literally was not there. It was shocking.

There are at least three other huge plays due to Moss and Garcon literally making incredible plays even when RG3 made a bad throw that resulted in gigantic gains and some TD's.

RG3 definitely makes a case for ROY, but Luck has impressed me more, contrary to what some stats say.
Posted by Vicks Kennel Club
29-24 #BlewDat
Member since Dec 2010
31210 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 11:11 am to
Also, Harrison Smith should get a shout out for his play.

3 INT's
2 pick 6's
10 passes defended
1 fumble recovery
57 tackles
28 assists on tackles

More importantly, he is a game changer in the Minnesota secondary. Last year, the Vikings problem on a horrendous team was that could not stop the pass. They were ranked either 31st or 32nd. It was 2012 Saints bad.

Harrison Smith makes big plays, flies in on the ball with crunching hits, and is a great tackler. He has changed the defense. Even with AP going HAM, they would have no chance in any game because they would let up way too many points without him.
Posted by FootballNostradamus
Member since Nov 2009
20509 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 11:32 am to
quote:

I think you are missing the point. The Colts rely on Andrew Luck throwing way more than the Skins rely on RG3. Luck has turned around this football team to a playoff team. He doesnt have a run game to fall back on. All the Colts have is his arm. From the 1st pick in the draft to a wild card team in the playoffs is enough for me to give him the award.


Again, you're arguing a system not a player. I've made this comparison before, but why does everyone discount Houston and Big 12 QBs in college because they throw so much yet in the NFL this is considered a huge burden on the QB?

Case Keenum threw the ball 200 more times than Andrew Luck last year. Is he more valuable to his team? Does his team ask him to do more? It's a spread system.

People make this attrocious argument that if Shannahan thought he could do it he'd ask Griffin to pass more. Again, I don't know why it's so ridiuclous for some of you to understand, but there's no reason for them to do it. Their offense averages more yards per play than any in the NFL. Why the fvck would they change that?

Also, and this somehow continues to fall on deaf ears, but yal do realize there are some coaches (shocker) who prefer to run the ball over passing? There are some coaches who believe the inherent risks in putting the ball in the air are sugnificantly greater than running. Gasp!

Lastly, what kind of record would Washington have had last year without Orakpo and Kerrigan? They were the only reason that team had a pulse. I'd expect them to be a 4-5 win team without those two.
Posted by FootballNostradamus
Member since Nov 2009
20509 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 11:38 am to
quote:

He is an Alex Smith with speed.




RG3 is an Alex Smith with speed. Are you literally on prescription drugs? Did you see what Smith did upon entering the league compared to what RG3 has done? Have you ever seen Smith effortlessly flick a ball 70 yards to a WR in perfect stride? Have you ever seen Smith be compared to an OLYMPIC LEVEL HURDLER from an athletic standpoint? That was up there with the "we are all now dumber for having listened to what you just said" Billy Madison line.

quote:

Both are good, above-average QB's, but they are generally not relied on to be the game changers.


If you don't think RG3 changes the game for every single defense he goes up against then you should stop watching football.

quote:

The old Tyson Chandler argument. There are people who push for players with high-efficiency ratings to get more touches, no matter the sport, but the reason they are so efficient is that they are not relied on to have high-usage.


I understand what you're trying to say but that's another attrocious argument. When has Chandler not gone somewhere and not had an immediate positive impact on his club?

quote:

RG3 throwing 35 times a game with a pro-style offense and not risking injury by running about 10 designed runs a game would result in statistically inferior games by a landslide to what he is doing now.


You forgot the obligatory "IMO". RG3 threw almost the exact number of times as Luck last year and was 8 million times more effecient in every category possible. As I listed above, why the fvck would the Redskins ask him to do anything other than what he's doing to lead them to the most efficient offense in the league?

quote:

Another factor is that RG3 has been incredibly lucky with his receiving core. They have been really fricking good, regardless of their names.


Now it's just getting comical. I assume Brady was just a product of Moss or Gronk. Brees is simply an extension of Graham. Just stop, it sounds that ridiculous.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73904 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 11:53 am to
Why are you so condescending?
Posted by Sophandros
Victoria Concordia Crescit
Member since Feb 2005
45219 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 12:03 pm to
Because y'all are presenting terrible, illogical arguments.
Posted by FootballNostradamus
Member since Nov 2009
20509 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 12:15 pm to
quote:

Also, Harrison Smith should get a shout out for his play.

3 INT's
2 pick 6's
10 passes defended
1 fumble recovery
57 tackles
28 assists on tackles

More importantly, he is a game changer in the Minnesota secondary. Last year, the Vikings problem on a horrendous team was that could not stop the pass. They were ranked either 31st or 32nd. It was 2012 Saints bad.


Smith is no doubt legit, I'll give you that much. Why couldn't my Saints draft him
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112623 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

We aren't even mentioning the anomaly that is 7 TD passes of 30 yards or more
So, you view seven 30 yard TD passes as a negative for Griffin?

quote:

So 9 of his games yielded 6 TD passes total. Brilliant

Luck's 9 worse games, 8 TD passes. That's what you're hanging your hat on?

quote:

Sample size, dude

Good thing I used percentages and not totals.

quote:

The more passes you throw, the lower his percentages go
What? I'm not sure how else to possibly address this assertion because it doesn't make any sense.

quote:

Please, tell me this... If he was so good at passing like you people are claiming and could sustain those numbers, don't you think Shannahan would have him throwing 500+ times this season and not rushing the ball 112+ times? He wouldn't be 26th in attempts and he wouldn't be 22nd in yards. Why risk injury running if he's so great at throwing?
So a QB is only as good as the pass attempts he throws?

Well Andrew Luck is better than Montana, and Montana never should have won any All Pro awards throwing under 400 passes all those times!!!

quote:

If you want to slurp someone's percentages, look at the great QBs who are actually passers and not runner. That, my friend, is impressive.

So, just so I fully understand your logic, a QB who can put up good pass numbers is better than QB who can put up good passing and rushing numbers?
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112623 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 1:33 pm to
quote:

No, batting average. RG3 is winning percentages. Yes, he is having a statistically nicer year, but he is not the same impact on each. He is an Alex Smith with speed. Both are good, above-average QB's, but they are generally not relied on to be the game changers
I'm sticking with HR title lol.

I was making that comparison based on RG having only 2 less TD passes despite having 200+ less attempts, that's the logic I was going for.

quote:

The old Tyson Chandler argument
Apples and oranges man. Chandler may shoot 70% but anyone who watches knows he's not posting guys up and being a focal point of the offense. He doesn't shoot much and does on putbacks, or when he gets wide open under the bucket.

Short of throwing nothing but bubble screens, that comparison can't be made with an NFL QB, especially when the QB we're comparing, is doing great in all aspects of the passing game, not just bubble screens lol.

quote:

RG3 throwing 35 times a game with a pro-style offense and not risking injury by running about 10 designed runs a game would result in statistically inferior games by a landslide to what he is doing now.
First, that's just an opinion and an assumption. I'd rather base this debate on what has actually happened this season. But to play along, even if it made some sort of difference to throw 10 more times per game, RG has a TD:INT ratio of 18:4 to Luck's 20:18. It would be really hard to convince me that it would make THAT much of a difference. Would RG throw 14 more INTs and not any extra TD passes?

Montana won big time awards throwing roughly the same amount as RG, much closer to RG(maybe 2 attempts more per game) than Luck. Was it because he couldn't be trusted? Why didn't they throw Montana 35-40 times a game if he was that good?





I completely agree with the upside on Luck. I'd take him over RG if I'm starting a team. But he's not having a better season. He may show flashes of brilliance that makes us point to that regarding his upside, but he's not as good as RG this year. I don't see how.
Posted by FootballNostradamus
Member since Nov 2009
20509 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

shel311


Thanks for the backup
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73904 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

So, you view seven 30 yard TD passes as a negative for Griffin?


I didnt say it was a negative. Pierre Garcon and Moss have taken 5 yard passes and housed them for 30+ yards a few times. That's not on RG3.

quote:

Luck's 9 worse games, 8 TD passes. That's what you're hanging your hat on?


You addressed Rg3 passing TD total, not me. Mainly, I was pointing out he threw 8 in 2 games. The number is nice but it doesn't do much good in the other games.

quote:

Good thing I used percentages and not totals.

What? I'm not sure how else to possibly address this assertion because it doesn't make any sense.


It's pretty simple. It is easier to connect on 5 out of 10 or 50 out of 100. You can go 1 for 2 and still be completing 50%. Awesome percentage.

quote:

So a QB is only as good as the pass attempts he throws?

Well Andrew Luck is better than Montana, and Montana never should have won any All Pro awards throwing under 400 passes all those times!!!


Where are you getting this shite from? Or are you that bad at comprehension? You were the one claiming RG3 is some great passer. I told you why he wasn't that impressive.

quote:


So, just so I fully understand your logic, a QB who can put up good pass numbers is better than QB who can put up good passing and rushing numbers?


A QB who throws the ball 500+ times with good %s is more impressive than a running QB.

Are they better? Let me know when the last running QB won a Super Bowl (hint: never). The guys winning Super Bowls are throwing the ball almost 500 times a year.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112623 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 2:05 pm to
quote:

. I told you why he wasn't that impressive
Not that impressive?

quote:

Are they better? Let me know when the last running QB won a Super Bowl (hint: never).

I have no clue why this is relevant.

Unless you can show me the list of running QBs with similar completion%s, TD:INT ratios of 4.5:1, and similar passing efficiency numbers, then you have a point.

Otherwise, it's all irrelevant.
Posted by GynoSandberg
Bay St Louis, MS
Member since Jan 2006
73904 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 2:16 pm to
Ah, right. There is no one comparable. He's "revolutionizing the position", much like Michael Vick, Vince Young, and Cam Newton has done.

Im done arguing. All we can do is see what happens the next few years.
Posted by FootballNostradamus
Member since Nov 2009
20509 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

I didnt say it was a negative. Pierre Garcon and Moss have taken 5 yard passes and housed them for 30+ yards a few times. That's not on RG3.


Do you understand offenses? You know that when RG3 rides the mesh point with the RB long enough to force the OLB up then he pulls it out and drills it to Garcon in perfect stride right between the CB and S that that is one of the reasons we believe RG3 and this offense will be so unstoppable in the NFL right? Do you understand the constratins this offense puts on a defense?

quote:

You addressed Rg3 passing TD total, not me. Mainly, I was pointing out he threw 8 in 2 games. The number is nice but it doesn't do much good in the other games.


You're the one who brought-up RG3 6 TDs in 9 games. Also, you failed to address my point where RG3 had all 6 of his rushing TDs in those games. Is it not possible for you to understand that maybe RG3 was taking what the defense gave him in the redzone and running it in instead of forcing it through the air? Again, that's another plus for RG3 and this offensive system.

quote:

It's pretty simple. It is easier to connect on 5 out of 10 or 50 out of 100. You can go 1 for 2 and still be completing 50%. Awesome percentage.


You make it sound like we're proclaiming Greg McElroy the second coming because he scored a TD on his one drive. The guys played 13 fvkcing games. He's thrown 350 passes for God's sake. What the hell kind of sample size do you need to make an accurate judgement of a player?

quote:

Where are you getting this shite from? Or are you that bad at comprehension? You were the one claiming RG3 is some great passer. I told you why he wasn't that impressive.


You're the one claiming RG3 isn't an impressive passer because he doesn't play in a pass-happy offense. He's just pointing out how absurd the assumption that only pass-happy QBs can be elite is.

quote:

A QB who throws the ball 500+ times with good %s is more impressive than a running QB.


Way to stereotype and label RG3 as a running QB simply cause he's mobile and black. When has a mobile QB ever passed with the accuracy and arm strength of someone like RG3?

quote:

Are they better? Let me know when the last running QB won a Super Bowl (hint: never). The guys winning Super Bowls are throwing the ball almost 500 times a year.


How old are you Gyno? I've said many, many times that RG3 is simply a more athletic Steve Young with a better arm. Were you alive when Steve Young came into the league? The guy was running around like a chicken with his head cut-off. It would have made analysts these days have a heart-attack.

But guess what happened? Over time, he got more and more comfortable from the pocket. He still had that mobile element that could kill defenses, but he made his living through the air.

This exact same thing is going to happen with RG3. He's already light-years ahead of Young as a passer and is more athletic than him in every measureable way.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112623 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

Ah, right. There is no one comparable
Feel free to show me the QBs who had more efficient passing seasons. By all means, prove me wrong, don't get condescending, which I view as just throwing in the towel to be honest.

Prove me wrong, I don't mind.

quote:

much like Michael Vick, Vince Young, and Cam Newton has done
None of those guys fit the criteria that I mentioned. Vick and Young never remotely had passing seasons as good as Griffin. Not even close. Newton put up some big numbers, but again, wasn't nearly as efficient.

quote:

All we can do is see what happens the next few years
Huh?

The rookie of the year award is for this year only. What happens in the next few years is irrelevant pertaining to this year. Plus, I've already said I like the upside of Luck better. That doens't mean he was a better QB THSI year.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112623 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

When has a mobile QB ever passed with the accuracy and arm strength of someone like RG3?
I don't want to put words in his mouth.

But apparently, he's saying Vick and Vince Young did.
Posted by Rittdog
Yesterday, all my troubles seemed
Member since Oct 2009
9955 posts
Posted on 12/19/12 at 2:46 pm to
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