re: Heat just beat the Warriors

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I simulated the game 1000 times and it had the Heat winning 21% of the time, average score was GSW 111 Miami 102.

The ML was +720 which translates to about 13%. So according to my model the ML should have been +400, so there was value at +720

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i remember when i used to think shite like this panned out. Congrats on your nightly win and your future losses.

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How did you simulate the games? I would like to know because I have been studying a little bit about money line betting and implied odds but I don't have a way of determining an alternate value to determine whether the line is off or not.

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Its pretty complex. I use a big grand excel macro

I take all the team/opponent stats from stats.nba.com, use excel formulas convert them into advanced stats and also calculate national averages. I also take each teams/opponents stats based on home/road splits so I can calculate national home advantages as well as team home/road adjustments

Then I take each team's game by game stat log from basketball reference and adjust each team's stats from each game based on opponent strength and location. I also weight more recent games(the most recent game will have 4x the weight of the 1st game, though I am considering giving recent games even more weight than that)

For the simulation itself I calculate the expected tempo of the game, then use each team's season long adjusted stats to calculate expectancy. I.E. what % of possessions they will shoot a 2 point field goal(as well as allow a 2 point field goal attempt on defense), what % of possessions they will foul, what % of possessions they will turn the ball over, what their foul-to-free throw ratio is, offensive rebound %, and so on

I use 3 main calculated expectancy percentages in my simulation - 2PA%, 3PA%, and TO% which combined = 1. Independent of that is Foul % which is the 4th expectancy, but the foul check is done before the expectancy check

Then I run a loop in an excel macro and run the simulation until the amount of possessions exceeds the expected game tempo, at that point the "game" is over. I simulate the game 1000 times to eliminate outliers

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What will you buy?

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probably more coke

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would you consider emailing me this If I post my email address?

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Yeah man

I guess you could look around at my formulas and macro codes and how i do things

As far as updating it, its a complex process that takes between 15-30 minutes a day. Probably something you would not know how to do without me giving you detailed step by step instructions

Nugget is going to end up being the KenPom of pro hoops.

Sent

Whatcha think about Houston being 6-5 since the OKC game where you proclaimed them a 65 win team?

(no message)

Who are we picking tonight?