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re: Google Doc showing NBA MVP voting so far
Posted on 4/12/17 at 9:10 pm to Epic Cajun
Posted on 4/12/17 at 9:10 pm to Epic Cajun
He said he had a vote on his last pod with vernon. Vernon said do you have a vote? When are they due?
He says yes. Due Saturday.
He says yes. Due Saturday.
0
Posted on 4/12/17 at 9:20 pm to Boomshockalocka
Vegas disagrees with that and they are the top oddsmakers in the world. More like 50% Westbrook 25% Harden 20% Leonard and 5% LeBron.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 9:21 pm to Corporal Beavis
Vegas has good reason to hedge esp this year with so many new(unidentified) voters.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:11 pm to Boomshockalocka
Do you know what hedging is? Cause that's not how hedging works. IF they were hedging it, then that means they're making it closer than it really is.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:17 pm to Corporal Beavis
They are giving good odds on harden to encourage bets to come that way bc most of their money is tied up in Westbrook bets.
Now if Westbrook wins they are getting some harden $$ to offset the Westbrook payouts.
And if harden wins at the higher odds they have tons of money on westbrook to offset the harden winnings.
not overly complicated if you know how these kinda things work.
Now if Westbrook wins they are getting some harden $$ to offset the Westbrook payouts.
And if harden wins at the higher odds they have tons of money on westbrook to offset the harden winnings.
not overly complicated if you know how these kinda things work.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:25 pm to Boomshockalocka
So you agree that Vegas is giving better odds to Harden who isn't the favorite, yet that underdog has a greater than 50% chance to win according to you and there's more than just 2 people also. I think you messed up your math bro
Unless you completely disagree with Vegas in which case your IQ has to be a good bit lower than 50 if you're not placing bets on Harden then
Unless you completely disagree with Vegas in which case your IQ has to be a good bit lower than 50 if you're not placing bets on Harden then
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 10:26 pm
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:25 pm to okietiger
Over under on the pages for the thread for the MVP winner on this board?
I'll set it at 20.
And say over.
I'll set it at 20.
And say over.
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 10:25 pm
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:29 pm to Corporal Beavis
Vegas needs to hedge against a Westbrook win so they are setting a line to encourage harden bets. Hardens actual odds aren't what's important. What's important is they set a # to encourage action on harden. If they set the line at 50% for harden but the public isn't betting it. Well they gotta lower it to bring some $ in. I can recommend some reading for you if you wanna go more in depth into it.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:30 pm to SECFan1995
Over. Comfortably 
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:34 pm to Boomshockalocka
Vegas never has and never will work that way.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:40 pm to htran90
so oddsmakers don't move lines to get action on a certain side? News to me. And everyone else who ever placed a bet
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:44 pm to Boomshockalocka
Moving lines is one thing, I meant your talk of hedging.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:50 pm to htran90
That's why they move the lines
To encourage action to limit risk.
Say In football everybody is betting a certain team at -7. Vegas raises the line to -7.5 to encourage people to take the 7.5 points. Vegas is hedging their bet by encouraging people to take the dog so if the team covers and wins by 8 they have some losers on the +7.5 side to offset all the winners who bet the favourite. Ie hedge
To encourage action to limit risk.
Say In football everybody is betting a certain team at -7. Vegas raises the line to -7.5 to encourage people to take the 7.5 points. Vegas is hedging their bet by encouraging people to take the dog so if the team covers and wins by 8 they have some losers on the +7.5 side to offset all the winners who bet the favourite. Ie hedge
Posted on 4/12/17 at 10:54 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:Can you link us to show us the breakdown of where the money is?
They are giving good odds on harden to encourage bets to come that way bc most of their money is tied up in Westbrook bets.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:02 pm to shel311
The thing is if you are savvy you don't need to see the breakdown of the money, the odds will tell you where the money is coming in.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:16 pm to Boomshockalocka
As others have mentioned, that is not how this works.
The odds don't shift as far as they have just to get money on the other side. They do so because Westbrook has become the overwhelming favorite and not changing the odds could end up losing an oddsmaker everything, which is about as elementary as it gets to understand.
The odds don't shift as far as they have just to get money on the other side. They do so because Westbrook has become the overwhelming favorite and not changing the odds could end up losing an oddsmaker everything, which is about as elementary as it gets to understand.
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:22 pm to shel311
Again you trying to explain to me how these things works is one of the funniest things I've read here in a while.
you just said that oddsmakers change the odds to encourage/discourage bets on one side. Which is the same thing I said.
They lose it all if all they have is bets on Westbrook and Westbrook wins. That's why they setting an attractive line for action on James. Remember where the odds were a couple weeks ago. Those holding those Westbrook bets are in line for a big big pay day if he wins. Vegas need some non Westbrook bets to hedge against a Westbrook win. Simple really. Even elementary.
you just said that oddsmakers change the odds to encourage/discourage bets on one side. Which is the same thing I said.
They lose it all if all they have is bets on Westbrook and Westbrook wins. That's why they setting an attractive line for action on James. Remember where the odds were a couple weeks ago. Those holding those Westbrook bets are in line for a big big pay day if he wins. Vegas need some non Westbrook bets to hedge against a Westbrook win. Simple really. Even elementary.
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 11:32 pm
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:31 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
the odds will tell you where the money is coming in.
We repeatedly see that isn't the case in betting.
Money can be 1 sided and the line still moves in that sides favor, outside to the even money theory.
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 11:32 pm
Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:32 pm to TigerBait1127
Oh reverse line movement is something we are very familiar with. Admittedly I am probably too well read on the topic. but the way the lines have moved in this particular event no it's clear that's not the case.
but the way the lines have moved in this particular event no it's clear that's not the case. Posted on 4/12/17 at 11:33 pm to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Remember where the odds were a couple weeks ago. Those holding those Westbrook bets are in line for a big big pay day if he wins. Vegas need some non Westbrook bets to hedge against a Westbrook win. Simple really. Even elementary.
Wow
It's been taken off the board at a lot of books, and I want to say it's at a ridiculous number now of 5dimes
This post was edited on 4/12/17 at 11:37 pm
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