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ESPN s Ken Pom model have all the Pac12 teams losing in the Elite 8...
Posted on 3/29/21 at 3:27 am
Posted on 3/29/21 at 3:27 am
Zags 75% chance!
Michigan 62% chance!
Houston 73% chance!
Is this low-seed-itis or bias?
The highest rated Pac12 team at 5% odds to win the National Title is USC, surprising considering they'll be going against a semi-pro team of men in the Zags.
Oregon State and UCLA have odds at 2%, the lowest of any remaining elite 8 teams.
Michigan 62% chance!
Houston 73% chance!
Is this low-seed-itis or bias?
The highest rated Pac12 team at 5% odds to win the National Title is USC, surprising considering they'll be going against a semi-pro team of men in the Zags.
Oregon State and UCLA have odds at 2%, the lowest of any remaining elite 8 teams.
8
Posted on 3/29/21 at 6:22 am to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
I always thought that would be the case (whether it was USC or Oregon who won last night). As much shite (deservedly) as the seeding committee got, the Final Four in all likelihood is going to be three No. 1 seeds and a 2 seed.
Of course the way the PAC 12 has played, I will always give them a shot, and will root for them. Even ucla...
The fact the PAC-12 is 12-2 heading in to the Elite 8 (with one loss inevitable with USC and Oregon playing) is incredible in itself.
If the tournament ends over the next two days for the Beavers, Bruins, and Trojans, the PAC-12 has no reason to hang their heads.
Of course the way the PAC 12 has played, I will always give them a shot, and will root for them. Even ucla...
The fact the PAC-12 is 12-2 heading in to the Elite 8 (with one loss inevitable with USC and Oregon playing) is incredible in itself.
If the tournament ends over the next two days for the Beavers, Bruins, and Trojans, the PAC-12 has no reason to hang their heads.
This post was edited on 3/29/21 at 10:14 am
Posted on 3/29/21 at 7:04 am to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
High seed privilege. SMH.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 8:48 am to Porkchop Express
I mean, at least this MIGHT get the Pac 12 some respect going into next season.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 9:55 am to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
Any ratings will most likely spit out chalk.
Kenpom didn’t give any Pac 12 team better than a 17.5% chance of even making the sweet 16.
Kenpom didn’t give any Pac 12 team better than a 17.5% chance of even making the sweet 16.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 10:05 am to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
Kempom got screwed up from the lack of non-conference games. Kempom had the SEC the strongest it's been in awhile. I just didn't see that really.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 12:09 pm to Smoke7024
ESPN does not own nor did they create kenpom. Do give those idiots credit.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 12:11 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
The Zags not winning would be the only "shock" for me. They're just too damn good to not make the Final 4/Championship game.
Houston and Michigan can go either way for me, especially considering how well the PAC-12 has performed this tournament.
Houston and Michigan can go either way for me, especially considering how well the PAC-12 has performed this tournament.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 12:12 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
Good. I hope all 3 teams go into the Elite 8 games feeling disrespected AF. Don't want them to lose the edge.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 12:24 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
I can't lie. I would LOVE seeing a USC - UCLA match up in the Final Four.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 12:47 pm to EastBankTiger
quote:
I can't lie. I would LOVE seeing a USC - UCLA match up in the Final Four.
USC has won the last four, but two out of the last three were won on threes at the buzzer.
Always a great game nowadays.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 1:38 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
wow, absolutely insane that statistical models are predicting the better teams to win their games.
more breaking news at 11
more breaking news at 11
Posted on 3/29/21 at 1:46 pm to rockchlkjayhku11
How are they automatically better teams?
The model is supposed to be on relevant tournament data, not who was just seeded higher.
And it's supposed to be a reseeding model based on the tournament stats.
So whatever he's feeding into his little computer, despite the Pac12's play, doesn't think they match up - shooting %, defense, etc.
The model is supposed to be on relevant tournament data, not who was just seeded higher.
And it's supposed to be a reseeding model based on the tournament stats.
So whatever he's feeding into his little computer, despite the Pac12's play, doesn't think they match up - shooting %, defense, etc.
This post was edited on 3/29/21 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 3/29/21 at 1:56 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
quote:
How are they automatically better teams?
cause they were better the entire year?
quote:
So whatever he's feeding into his little computer, despite the Pac12's play, doesn't think they match up - shooting %, defense, etc.
it's crazy, it's almost like the teams the pac 12 schools are playing against in the elite 8 are....the other teams that have also won their tournament games, 3 of which are easily the 3 best teams in the country.
why should usc jump gonzaga? why would oregon state jump houston? and why would ucla jump michigan?
any of those teams can win. they all have very reasonable chances, as demonstrated by the percentages. none should be favored. it all makes perfect sense, i dont know what to tell you.
Posted on 3/29/21 at 3:23 pm to mizzoubuckeyeiowa
I don't think it is based on tournament stats. It probably just includes tournament game stats.
There is nothing earth shattering about kenpom. It is just offensive and defensive efficiency, with a SOS adjustment. Teams that are more efficient offensively/defensively tend to outscore their opponents often and thus get ranked/seeded higher than teams that are not.
Kenpom had Iowa ranked #5 and Purdue #13. Half of his top 10 were Big Ten schools. His rankings would have yielded an elite 8 of 1s and 2s (i.e. chalk). Big whoop. A kenpom based bracket would have busted the first day.
There is nothing earth shattering about kenpom. It is just offensive and defensive efficiency, with a SOS adjustment. Teams that are more efficient offensively/defensively tend to outscore their opponents often and thus get ranked/seeded higher than teams that are not.
Kenpom had Iowa ranked #5 and Purdue #13. Half of his top 10 were Big Ten schools. His rankings would have yielded an elite 8 of 1s and 2s (i.e. chalk). Big whoop. A kenpom based bracket would have busted the first day.
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