re: Early MLB Prediction Thread

What bothers me is that even if the Reds manage to win the division again, they aren't built for the postseason. They lack a true ace on the staff and will struggle against teams like Philly, Milwaukee, San Fran, etc in a playoff series.

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Most of the drop was a drop in 15 points in batting average, which lead to corresponding drop in both OBP and SLG.

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301---285 avg

360--337 obp

499----464 slg


That's a pretty nice dip, especially when you consider what his pedigree was coming in.


I'm not sure what "crater" means in this sense, but if it is what I think it means, I don't believe he will totally just crap out. I could see him hitting 15 HRs and something like 85 RBI.

I think he is closer to Ty Wigginton than Ryan Zimmerman, which is about where he would be if he builds on his 2010 numbers this season.

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and the Brewers don't even need him to improve

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they dont, you are right. But they need guy like him and Corey Hart to stay consistent, and for Rickie Weeks to stay healthy. And they need Braun to revert back to his old self.

Well, he's obviously not Ryan Zimmerman, but Zimmerman is an elite level 3rd baseman, maybe the best in the game (I think it's Longoria, but Zimmerman has a case as does A-Rod still).

to use Wigginton as an example, after his first season, he then got a full time gig. In his first season as a regular, his average dropped 50 points and his SLG dropped 130 points.

McGehee isn't really similar to EITHER of those guys. Zimmerman is one of the very best players in baseball and Wigginton is a borderline replacement player who has never really produced in a starting role for a full season.

He'd have to regress to become wigginton, losing 30 RBI's, 35 points of batting average, 25 points of OBP, and 50 points of slugging... and that's one of Wigginton's best seasons. If he simply gains those 15 points of batting average back, hardly a big deal given the volitile nature of batting average, he's hitting about 300/350/480. And that's without adding any power by seeing his doubles turn to homers as many young players do. That puts his numbers in Jay Bruce territory. and remember, he's the fourth best hitter on the team, maybe the fifth.

I don't have a problem if you think the guy won't do it, but you seem to be arguing that it's ridiculous for someone to believe in him, and that's a completely untenable position. there are plenty of historical factors to be pretty encouraged by the guy. Like I said, most of his drop in his rate stats were due to the BA drop, but it was also his first year as a starter, when players tend to flop if they're gonna flop.

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Well, he's obviously not Ryan Zimmerman, but Zimmerman is an elite level 3rd baseman, maybe the best in the game (I think it's Longoria, but Zimmerman has a case as does A-Rod still).

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offensively and defensively, but should McGehee take the next step in his 27 year old season, his numbers will be right up there with Zimmerman, offensively.

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to use Wigginton as an example, after his first season, he then got a full time gig. In his first season as a regular, his average dropped 50 points and his SLG dropped 130 points.

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Im not talking career patterns, just their "game" as a whole.

Wiggton's career OPS is .772. when given the chance to start, he has hit 20-25 HR's regularly. He has been a utility guy, playing some 3rd, 2nd, 1st, and OF.

McGehee has been a utility guy too. His OPS last year dipped to .800

My opinion is he takes another small step down.

Which is why I think he is closer to Wigginton than Zimmerman.

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you seem to be arguing that it's ridiculous for someone to believe in him, and that's a completely untenable position. there are plenty of historical factors to be pretty encouraged by the guy.

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truthfully, im not going off any historical data or anything of the such. Just watching him play a lot.

Not every player at 27 is going to have a career year because data says 27 year olds tend to peak.

We'll see. He's a decent player, i just dont think he'll get much better.


as for Jay Bruce, he is 23 or 24, and he has gotten better every year. Dont really see them as comparable

If it was fantasy I could see him taking a step closer to Zimmerman (but I actually think his numbers drop. I don't see him as a break out 27 year old season kind of guy). When you take defense into account, there is no chance he could ever be the player Zimmerman is.

If Zimmerman has a down year at the plate, his D will still make him one of the most valuable players in the game. McGehee's peak defensively is probably league average.

Wigginton has never hit .280 in a season in which he got at least 400 AB, like McGehee has. He also didn't hit 20 HR's until he turned 28 as he turned his doubles power into homer power. McGehee hit 38 doubles last year, a real indicator of future home run power (as well as belting 23 HR).

I highly doubt McGehee is going to hit 300/400/500 like Zimmerman, but no one is claiming that he will. I do think McGehee will either see his BA improve, raising his OBP and SLG accordingly, or he will sacrifice average and fully develop his power stroke. I think improvement is likely, though I don't think his improvement will be so dramatic as to put him in the elite levels. I do think he can put himself in that Michael Young, Aramis Ramirez tier beneath the true elites of the game.

Young players tend to improve. Obviously, they don't all improve, but McGehee has demonstarted the kind of encouraging signs that players who improve demonstrate. The way I make predictions is looking at similar factors historically nad making comps. McGehee fit comfortably in the pattern of many young hitters.

It's just like gambling, play the percentages. He's a smart bet, though not to become Ryan Zimmerman. Age 27 season, great doubles power, numbers didn't drop dramtically at his first full season as a starter... those are great signs.

Ryno now back in the only uniform he should've ever worn..

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That infield in '83 would have been-
1B Pete Rose/Tony Perez
2B Sandberg/Joe Morgan
SS Jesus
3B Mike Schmidt

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meh

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Chicago Cubs World Champions over the Red Sox

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FWIW, back in 2003 (before Boston reversed the curse) on my Ken Griffey's Slugfest 1998, the Cubs beat the Red Sox in game 7 at Fenway. I am still waiting for this day. Go Cubbies!