re: DEI has infiltrated the CFP and is why every game is over 7 point spread. Let money market

I didn’t read your post, just downvoted it

quote:

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I'm just saying that the OP presents a better way of choosing the field than by a group of puppets. Because Vegas does this kind of stuff for a living. They literally can't afford to be wrong.

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Vegas makes money by predicting a number that will get the public to place (relatively) equal amounts of money on a team (in a game) or teams (in terms of prop bets).

There spreads are simply reflective of public perceptions of the teams. So essentially, it’s like starting off with the premise of polling 100 college football fans and asking “who do they think would win between Alabama and Boise State”. 90% of people say Alabama. So they follow up with “do you think Alabama would beat Boise by 7? 10? 15?” Vegas has simply gotten good at guessing what that number is, so that roughly 50% of the money goes to each side.

So no, that would be an absolutely terrible was to pick the playoff teams.

The idea of the title of this thread that it’s somehow “bad” that the spreads are over 7 points is absurd. Normally HFA is considered to be worth 3 points. I’d think in college football with the playoff atmosphere, it might be a little more. You might also add in that SMU and Tennessee could be playing in conditions they don’t see as frequently as their opponents as well.

Aside from the Clemson game, this pretty much means that on a neutral field, these would all be close, one score games.