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Started By
Message
re: Debunking some Playoff Metrics
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:25 pm to Mr. Hangover
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:25 pm to Mr. Hangover
quote:
I’m sorry dude, but if LSU beats Georgia comfortably, there’s no reason for them to be #2
IDGAF about metrics and eye tests, etc.
Then what's it based on?
1
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:26 pm to KosmoCramer
Probably beating 2 teams that are NC contenders. Stop being obtuse
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:26 pm to VOR
quote:
I haven’t watched Utah, but the consensus seems to be that their defense is the real deal. They may sneak in, from comments I’ve heard the last few days.
They have a very good defense(#6 in SP+) but no great wins yet.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:27 pm to Hoops
quote:
Probably beating 2 teams that are NC contenders. Stop being obtuse
What's the definition of an NC contender?
You're just throwing out terms that have no definition or bearing behind them.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:27 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
UF is obviously a better win
based on what?
quote:
Going on the road and beating Bama is better than beating Penn State at home ( and the committee certainly felt that way until it was beneficial to sink Bama this week
Take a look at Bama;s schedule and just their schedule and tell why they should be ranked higher? Be honest, how would you view a B1G or any other team that's only wins over teams with winning records was 2 7-5 teams. Let that sink in they won 10 games and they best 3 are 7-5, 7-5 and 6-6.
quote:
and I think you could easily make a case for Auburn being a better win based on what Auburn has actually accomplished (harder schedule, better wins, better losses to only current top 10 teams)
better win? Auburn's best wins are Florida and......
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:29 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
What 3 and what metric resume or eye test?
Florida
Auburn
Alabama w/ Tua
Based on where Florida is ranked, where I believe Auburn should be ranked if not for the committee attempting to fix #1 for OSU, and where Alabama would be with Tua. So, a metric and two eye tests. Yes, I've seen Penn St. multiple times this year.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:29 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
What's the definition of an NC contender?
UGA is in until we beat them. Bama would be in had they not lost to us. UF would have been possibly in without the loss to us.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:29 pm to KosmoCramer
They can only play who is on their schedule. Not Clemsons fault the ACC sucks and not OSUs fault the B10 is mediocre.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:30 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
What's the definition of an NC contender?
Again, stop being obtuse
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:31 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
based on what?
Ask the committee.
quote:
Take a look at Bama;s schedule and just their schedule and tell why they should be ranked higher?
Talk to the committee.
quote:
Be honest, how would you view a B1G or any other team that's only wins over teams with winning records was 2 7-5 teams.
That's not the same as a loaded roster with at worst one of the best coaches ever, so that's an irrelevant question.
You be honest, would you take Bama or Penn State in a neutral game?
quote:
better win? Auburn's best wins are Florida and......
Better than anything Penn State has.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:31 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
UF would have been possibly in without the loss to us.
UF wasn’t getting in
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:32 pm to Hoops
Auburn vs. Penn State
Losses: Wins
vs. #2 LSU vs. #12 Bama
@ #9 Florida vs. #13 Oregon
vs. #4 UGA
Losses Wins
@1 OSU vs. #14 Michigan
@ 18 Minnesota @ #16 Iowa
The wins cancel out and while Auburn has more losses they played 2 top 5 teams and didn't lose to anyone outside of the top 10. That loss to Minnesota is a bad loss and both teams played a significant number of 1 score games (wins and losses quality and non-quality opponents). The problem is we have no metric for quality of a loss. Given less opportunities of quality opponents the weight of Penn State's loss to Minnesota looks bad. I would argue the two resumes are similar, if you swapped the schedules based on what I've seen from Auburn I would expect them to drop a game between Iowa, Minnesota and Michigan. I certainly expect Penn State to lose to LSU and Georgia but they could win one between Florida and Bama.
I don't think you can definitely say one is better than the other based on the data provided.
Losses: Wins
vs. #2 LSU vs. #12 Bama
@ #9 Florida vs. #13 Oregon
vs. #4 UGA
Losses Wins
@1 OSU vs. #14 Michigan
@ 18 Minnesota @ #16 Iowa
The wins cancel out and while Auburn has more losses they played 2 top 5 teams and didn't lose to anyone outside of the top 10. That loss to Minnesota is a bad loss and both teams played a significant number of 1 score games (wins and losses quality and non-quality opponents). The problem is we have no metric for quality of a loss. Given less opportunities of quality opponents the weight of Penn State's loss to Minnesota looks bad. I would argue the two resumes are similar, if you swapped the schedules based on what I've seen from Auburn I would expect them to drop a game between Iowa, Minnesota and Michigan. I certainly expect Penn State to lose to LSU and Georgia but they could win one between Florida and Bama.
I don't think you can definitely say one is better than the other based on the data provided.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:32 pm to High C
quote:
So, a metric and two eye tests. Yes, I've seen Penn St. multiple times this year.
That's fine, but if you are good with using the eye test for that, why shouldn't the committee be free to use the eye test to have Ohio State over LSU?
You are accusing the committee of fixing #1 for Ohio State while you yourself are using whatever standard makse the best case for your team, do you see the irony there?
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:32 pm to Hoops
quote:
UF wasn’t getting in
1 loss UF would have a possibility, I never said it was remotely likely.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:32 pm to Hoops
quote:
Again, stop being obtuse
Why isnt Penn State a NC contender?
Or Wisconsin?
Both 2 loss teams?
What's the definition of a "NC contender."
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:34 pm to JB Bama
quote:
I certainly expect Penn State to lose to LSU and Georgia but they could win one between Florida and Bama.
I don’t see PSU hanging with Bama even without Tua
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:35 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
Auburn vs. Penn State
Losses: Wins
vs. #2 LSU vs. #12 Bama
@ #9 Florida vs. #13 Oregon
vs. #4 UGA
Losses Wins
@1 OSU vs. #14 Michigan
@ 18 Minnesota @ #16 Iowa
There, more than eye test.
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:38 pm to KosmoCramer
Being in the top 5 late into the season? Being in a position to control your path to the playoff in the final weeks?
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:39 pm to Hoops
quote:
Being in the top 5 late into the season? Being in a position to control your path to the playoff in the final weeks?
If Penn State beats Ohio State two weeks ago, they're in the driver's seat for the CFP.
So...
Posted on 12/4/19 at 2:40 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
If Penn State beats Ohio State two weeks ago, they're in the driver's seat for the CFP.
So...
So his points still stands that LSU has beaten more of those.
ETA to say will have, since we are discussing who should have the 1 seed after this weekend's games.
This post was edited on 12/4/19 at 2:42 pm
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