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re: Cutler: 7 years, $126 Million, $54 Guaranteed

Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:25 pm to
Posted by brgfather129
Los Angeles, CA
Member since Jul 2009
17360 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

Today's production of Small Sample Size Theater is sponsored by Fox Mulder.




Never had a QB rating above 12th in his entire career...and that was six years ago in another uniform. But yeah, we can keep the "Jay Cutler is a good QB" narrative going and let 104 career start "sample size" get a little larger.
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:27 pm to
sample size is a two way street. BTW, 30 is the minimum for sample sizes, the problem is that the NFL shits all over statistics because of the interdependent variables and constant change in the league

mccown has looked good in places that are not chicago, and he didn't have 1/10th of the talent surrounding him that he had in chicago...he's an average qb, but so is cutler...and mccown isn't the one signing a $126 million contract
This post was edited on 1/2/14 at 2:29 pm
Posted by Walking the Earth
Member since Feb 2013
17390 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:30 pm to
quote:

Good move by the bears.


I'm willing to be talked into it but you're going to have to do at least an A- or B+ level sales job convincing me.
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:36 pm to
the sales pitch chicago is giving themselves and their fans...

"well, we didn't have anyone else...were we supposed to let him walk"

parting ways is rarely an option that is not on the table

5 or 6 guys have that kind of leverage and jay cutler is not one of them.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112624 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:38 pm to
quote:

Today's production of Small Sample Size Theater is sponsored by Fox Mulder


Josh McCown, the 34 year old journeyman QB, throws up a few good games and all of a sudden he's an above average QB? C'mon!
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112624 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

mccown has looked good in places that are not chicago
Where exactly did he ever look like a good, or even average player?
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:41 pm to
30 is the minimum sample size, mccown has started 38...I am going to find out his rating in starts, and like i said the sample size is bullshite to a large degree because of how interdependent things are and how things change wildly in just a year.

This post was edited on 1/2/14 at 2:44 pm
Posted by lsuin92
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
1362 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:43 pm to
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:45 pm to
mccown has a career rating 7 less than cutler and he has played on some dog shite teams. anyone who saw mccown in tampa knows he is a capable qb.

all you can judge is what they did with the same team. This team has only been together this year. No sample size helps here...mccown outplayed cutler and yes, he had the biggest cupcake defense in the NFL as one of his starts but he played well in all of his starts.
Posted by DelU249
Austria
Member since Dec 2010
77625 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:49 pm to
let's not delude ourselves either. If mccown were 24, cutler is wearing another uniform

I guess trestman doesn't want to risk his job finding another qb, which he would have ample time to do and thus room for failure.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112624 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

mccown has a career rating 7 less than cutler and he has played on some dog shite teams
That amount of points is basically the difference between average and a top 7-8 type QB. And if you give McCown the crap teams excuse, you gotta give Cutler the excuse of having quite a few years of terrible Olines as well.

quote:

anyone who saw mccown in tampa knows he is a capable qb.
Are you getting your McCown QBs mixed up? Hell, am I getting my McCown Qbs mixed up?

quote:

all you can judge is what they did with the same team. This team has only been together this year. No sample size helps here...mccown outplayed cutler and yes, he had the biggest cupcake defense in the NFL as one of his starts but he played well in all of his starts
Matt Flynn had the GOAT game for a Packers Qb. 1 game vs 8 games, yes. But where do you draw the line there?
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112624 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:52 pm to
quote:

let's not delude ourselves either. If mccown were 24, cutler is wearing another uniform
Well of course because the 24 year would likely have this 8 game sample size of awesomeness, so we wouldn't already know that he's no better than a journeyman QB.

quote:

I guess trestman doesn't want to risk his job finding another qb, which he would have ample time to do and thus room for failure
Would he have ample time if McCown played like he's played every year of his career except 2013? No chance, he'd be canned within 2 years.
Posted by Srbtiger06
Member since Apr 2006
29013 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:52 pm to
quote:

anyone who saw mccown in tampa knows he is a capable qb.


ummm
Posted by Jelly
Chilling with Timmy Chang
Member since Oct 2010
225 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:53 pm to
That would be Luke McCown who was in Tampa and actually tossed passes.

You can't just hitch your horse to Josh McCown (34+ and 1 good fluke year) and then hope to find a QB through the draft. Just because Russell Wilson happened, doesn't mean your will find success all the time. You could end up like Minny, Cle, or J-ville and just whiff a lot on QB's and be stuck in neutral.
Posted by Sophandros
Victoria Concordia Crescit
Member since Feb 2005
45219 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:54 pm to
quote:

anyone who saw mccown in tampa knows he is a capable qb.


Wrong McCown. The one who played in Tampa is Brees's backup for now.

Here is Josh's pfr page:

LINK

For comparison, here is Cutler's:

LINK
Posted by Patrick_Bateman
Member since Jan 2012
17823 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:54 pm to
quote:

$54 Guaranteed
LOL, that's about what he's worth. 54 dollars.
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
88702 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

Wrong McCown. The one who played in Tampa is Brees's backup for now.


Fox gonna Fox.
Posted by CajunCowboy35
Member since Feb 2012
646 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:59 pm to
Dumb bears
Posted by Sophandros
Victoria Concordia Crescit
Member since Feb 2005
45219 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 2:59 pm to
5.56 Net Yards per Attempt vs. 6.39 for their careers...
Posted by Jelly
Chilling with Timmy Chang
Member since Oct 2010
225 posts
Posted on 1/2/14 at 3:03 pm to
EXACTLY, I knew I enjoyed your posting for a reason Soph.
This is pretty telling as NYA accounts for all the sacks that Cutler has taken, and he STILL comes out ahead of Josh McCown.

And I'm guessing that Fox got a A in prob/stats but didn't actually take any of it to heart, as the first lesson is make sure you are looking at the right data set for the issue when you are doing analysis.
This post was edited on 1/2/14 at 3:04 pm
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