re: ATL Thread: Opening Day April 26th, 1995 Giants at Braves

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I guess only one stat should be considered when evaluating a player. And one who's formula differs depending on the source.

that and Tris Speaker>Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Musial, yas, Honus, and Lou Gehrig.

WAR

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Maybe if you read some you'd have a better understanding of the stat.

Bill James and others have written extensively about it. James himself acknowledges that early era players aren't as accurately represented because the gap between great and average was so much wider than it is today.

Which explains why Speaker's WAR > than the players you mentioned.

But we can and should look at other numbers.

Justice's 1995:

.253/.365/.479

491 PAs
4.72 PAs/Hit
20.4 PAs/HR
28.8 PAs/Double
6.73 PAs/BB
OPS+: 118


Heyward's 2012 (just using the nearest complete season):

.265/.335/.479

4.12 PAs/Hit
24 PAs/HR
21.7 PAs/Double
11.22 PAs/BB
OPS+: 116

So 22-year-old Jason Heyward got hits and doubles at a better rate, while 29-year old Justice got HRs and BBs at a better rate.

The net is slugging wound up the same. Justice's main advantage is that he simply got on base more in 1995 than Heyward did in 2012.

Heyward also stole 21 bases and played better defense.

I would argue his overall contribution last year (as a 22-year-old) > than Justice in a "prime" year.

Presuming Heyward can stay healthy, his age 29 season will likely obliterate anything Justice did.

The notion that Heyward is "all hype" or "not meeting expectations" is rather silly. If you review what other players his age have done at the same ages, his type of production is closer to the legends than the duds. Yet, a lot of Braves fans act like he's some sort of a disappointment.

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You and I were making the same point

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wRAA actually compares the player vs league avg as well and Jason had Justice beat 18.6 to 13.9 those years.

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But, I guess that's where our philosophy differs. I weight offense a LOT more than i weight defense, especially for a corner OF spot or 1B.

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Actually, I'm fairly skeptical of a lot of D-metrics because of their inconsistencies.

I do think Heyward is a known quantity on defense and that's confirmed by eyes and numbers.

I remember Justice being a pretty good RF too, just not as good as Heyward.

But the season you specifically referred to ('95), compares near identically to Heyward's 2012. Then you consider Heyward was only 22, and I think the gap is fairly obvious.

To me, Heyward hasn't had the "Put it all together" type of season he's capable of having. He's still "figuring it out" in that sense. Heyward as a rookie had all the on-base tools, but the power less so. Heyward last year had more of the power but less of the on-base tools.

Once he gets those things to align, he's the type of guy that could put up a .300/.400/.500 season with 40 bombs and 20 SBs.

quote:

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Maybe if you read some you'd have a better understanding of the stat.

Bill James and others have written extensively about it. James himself acknowledges that early era players aren't as accurately represented because the gap between great and average was so much wider than it is today.

Which explains why Speaker's WAR > than the players you mentioned.

But we can and should look at other numbers.

Justice's 1995:

.253/.365/.479

491 PAs
4.72 PAs/Hit
20.4 PAs/HR
28.8 PAs/Double
6.73 PAs/BB
OPS+: 118


Heyward's 2012 (just using the nearest complete season):

.265/.335/.479

4.12 PAs/Hit
24 PAs/HR
21.7 PAs/Double
11.22 PAs/BB
OPS+: 116

So 22-year-old Jason Heyward got hits and doubles at a better rate, while 29-year old Justice got HRs and BBs at a better rate.

The net is slugging wound up the same. Justice's main advantage is that he simply got on base more in 1995 than Heyward did in 2012.

Heyward also stole 21 bases and played better defense.

I would argue his overall contribution last year (as a 22-year-old) > than Justice in a "prime" year.

Presuming Heyward can stay healthy, his age 29 season will likely obliterate anything Justice did.

The notion that Heyward is "all hype" or "not meeting expectations" is rather silly. If you review what other players his age have done at the same ages, his type of production is closer to the legends than the duds. Yet, a lot of Braves fans act like he's some sort of a disappointment.

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Fair assessment and if JHey repeats 2012, then Justice is clearly not better to take. It still doesn't excuse you from claiming that heyward's 2012 is better than Justice's best season (97 or 93) which is what I took the most exception to.

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Yet, a lot of Braves fans act like he's some sort of a disappointment.

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While I agree that he shouldn't be written off like some do, 2011 was VERY disappointing regardless of age (though injury has affected that). Some experts are left wondering if Heyward's prime is closer to 2011 or 2012 or greater than 2012. I'm a Braves fan, so I'm hoping it's greater than 2012 in his prime seasons, plus Bobby really likes him. 2013 so far is disappointing, and if he's still hitting around .150 mid-late May, then i'd say that's statistically significant.

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It still doesn't excuse you from claiming that heyward's 2012 is better than Justice's best season (97 or 93) which is what I took the most exception to.

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Well, to me, his total contribution was worth more.

But if you are completely discrediting defense, then sure, it won't.

2011 was a down year for him for sure. I think he was hurt most of that year and just never right. My biggest concern is that he'd be injury-prone.

He's a smart kid and a hard worker. He'll figure out the rest.

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WAR is not the end all/be all stat you pseudo sabremetric nerds like to think it is.

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You post on an Internet message board, Captain Pussy Slayer

quote:

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You post on an Internet message board, Captain Pussy Slayer

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You completely ignored the word "pseudo." I was more alluding to the fact that so many baseball fans now consider themselves experts on sabremetrics after learning a few new statistics than I was calling him "nerdy."
reminds me of this meme:

LINK

Two things:

I'd take the Lemer over Uggla-y

JHey has never hit a HR to score the only run to win a WS

Come on Gattis

wrong thread dumbass