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re: 2023 Australian Open Thread.

Posted on 1/24/23 at 12:15 pm to
Posted by KamaCausey_LSU
Member since Apr 2013
16008 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 12:15 pm to
No, she lost. No Americans in the women's semis.


It seems like the pressure is on Paul to not lose to a rookie, and Shelton is playing with house money.

If Tommy Paul plays up to his game, he should advance. But I've seen (and bet) too many matches where Tommy Paul just didn't show up. Also of note; the last big serving lefty Paul faced was a 4-6, 4-6 loss to Jack Draper a couple of weeks ago in Adelaide. I think I'm talking myself in to taking Shelton +4.5 games.
Posted by ronbary
Sarasota, Fl
Member since Oct 2022
73 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 1:48 pm to
I agree, when he gets that down and with that serve, Wimbledon watch out.
Posted by lsupride87
Member since Dec 2007
104135 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 1:53 pm to
He is the youngest person in atp history to win 3 consecutive challengers.

Nothing about his rise is normal.
This post was edited on 1/24/23 at 1:55 pm
Posted by KamaCausey_LSU
Member since Apr 2013
16008 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 2:42 pm to
quote:

I agree, when he gets that down and with that serve, Wimbledon watch out.

Just hope he doesn't lose confidence if/when he struggles with clay season.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6897 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 3:44 pm to
He could just skip clay like most US players, although it's my opinion that TP playing a lot of clay was a big factor in his rise.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6897 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 3:59 pm to
Guess my afternoon is booked up


Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
62396 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 4:21 pm to
Gambling apps are the devil.

I was going to ask, can he servebot out three more wins Raonic/Isner style? 60 to 1 for a quarterfinalist is wild. I will say I watched some highlights with JJ, and it looked like he straight up beat him from the back of the court on a lot of points. I hadn't really seen Shelton play much, so was expecting Ivo Karlovic or something. He moved really well from what I saw and had a good knack for turning defense into offense.
Posted by Dawgsontop34
Member since Jun 2014
44779 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 4:40 pm to
I think it’s +300 for Shelton to win his first 3 service games at 0, 15, or 30.

But I’m on a hiatus after my last couple months
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6897 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 4:54 pm to
The catch is that he hasn't faced any good returners so far, but going 5 sets without getting broken vs. Wolf was something, so that +300 sure seems enticing.

I'm just getting started looking at his serve but it doesn't appear to be very ace-friendly. He crushes it obviously, but it's a lot of body serves and just hitting it as hard as he can without much emphasis on painting lines. And the slice is effective but not ace-effective like Shapo.
This post was edited on 1/24/23 at 4:54 pm
Posted by Dawgsontop34
Member since Jun 2014
44779 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 4:56 pm to
Yeah, he only had like 8 aces against Jarry I think which shocked me. But he has a massive body serve and as a lefty that will work all day.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6897 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 4:58 pm to
Then again... in Cincinnati he faced a decent returner lol

Posted by Dawgsontop34
Member since Jun 2014
44779 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 5:00 pm to
I had no idea Azarenka had only made one semifinal in 9 years before yesterday’s win.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6897 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 5:03 pm to
Damn I wouldn't have expected that either. I know the baby thing happened but at most that takes 2 or 3 years away.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6897 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 5:06 pm to
quote:

60 to 1 for a quarterfinalist is wild

Funny the first thing I typed into the parlay calculator was +220 (current odds vs. Paul), +300 (my guess vs. Tsitsipas), and +400 (my guess vs. Djokovic, although could be more) and it spit out 63/1. So you would have to hope for an upset or two. Or just play the running-parlay if you want to go that route.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6897 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 5:07 pm to
Check out this read at 5:16 on the Wolf serve. Makes me wonder if that's a Wolf-specific thing or if his instincts are just that good. If I see it vs. someone else, I'll update it.

LINK
Posted by Dawgsontop34
Member since Jun 2014
44779 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 5:36 pm to
Shelton was struggling with that serve from Wolf for the vast majority of the match, and Wolf went to it a bunch.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6897 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 5:52 pm to
Makes sense. Thanks.
Posted by KamaCausey_LSU
Member since Apr 2013
16008 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 7:05 pm to
quote:

Then again... in Cincinnati he faced a decent returner lol

Then he faced Norrie won 2 games in a 0-6, 2-6 loss.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6897 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 7:55 pm to
Had to watch that one out of curiosity. Norrie won a ridiculous 20/25 2nd-serve return points and Shelton double-faulted 8 times. Norrie just did his normal thing and let Ben spray errors. He also handles pace well and completely neutralized the 1st serve.

Great editing on these highlights. Entire match in 10 mins with 1st and 2nd serves.

LINK
This post was edited on 1/24/23 at 7:59 pm
Posted by dirtsandwich
AL
Member since May 2016
5925 posts
Posted on 1/24/23 at 8:14 pm to
Apologies if this has already been addressed, but why is the crowd so small for this quarterfinal? Lack of interest? Covid protocols?!
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