re: Why CASH is a BAD investment right now

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Well with blackjack I can tell you exactly what the odds are given a certain set of cards. The stock market isn't such a simple closed universe.

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True. But for example, you could buy a company for $10 a share that had net cash of $12 on the books. Purchasing that stock would be speculative, but the risk/reward would seem to be in your favor. Contrast that with buying Amazon when it was at $400 and with no earnings.

'I think Parliament's point is very worthwhile. There are many people (read: the vast majority) who DO NOT care about economics and finance, and they want to pay someone else to do the work for them.'

You are right, lots of people do not care about economics and finance. Many times these people become known as FWOs (formerly well offs), especially when times get tough. It would be great if we could depend on someone else to manage our money. In my experience it has not worked for a variety of reasons. I think right now is a good time to work my arse off to preserve capital and look for the next opportunity. How can I expect someone else to work as hard for me? Where is this wonderkind?

In addition to that; I don't like taking a bad beat because I screwed up or was blind sided by a Black Swan, but I deal with it. We learn from our mistakes. What pisses me off is turning my money over to someone else that takes a bad beat and I only find out about it in some damn financial statement, with no details, no explanation, nada. This is not a learning experience...except I learn that it won't happen again.

Well, I meant the royal "I," as in, someone, somewhere can tell you the odds.

I agree that a buy and hold strategy is good for a long-term investor. I also agree that there are extremely rare times when an investor needs to be able to "read the signs of the times", and go to cash.
Times of instability. When the banks began to charge billions of dollars of write-offs in the 4th Q of 2007 that was a "sign". (I went 75% cash) Many "experts" were saying "that's the last wrtie-off". FALSE. Who in their right mind would think any bank would write all of their losses down at one time when we're talking billions. I surmised that was the beginning, not the end.
In that situation instability was on the horizon. GO TO CASH!!! signs were screaming everywhere.
Until job losses, bankruptcies, foreclosures, credit card defaults, etc. stabilize no one knows what is going to happen. Being in cash would be prudent. With the FED printing money like it's free we'll eventually see high inflation, and you'd want to be in gold.
As far as anyone knows we could have a market like Japan's LINK
or the NASDAQ LINK
The NIKKEI was 38,900 in DEC 1989. Today it is 8,000. Anyone that employed a buy and hold strategy in the NIKKEI lost lots of CASH if they had a chance to go to cash in 1989. It's been 20 years and still no recovery.
The NASDAQ was about 5000 in 2000 now it is almost 1600. 9 years and no "recovery". Anyone that employed a buy and hold strategy in the NASDAQ lost lots of cash if they had a chance to go cash in 2000. With our nation incurring so much debt and adding to it in large amounts we really don't know what will happen.
The S&P500 was 815 on 7/1/2002. That's probably right where we should be. That's close to the time the market started going up due to people buying homes they could not afford. There are people in homes they will never afford even if the interest rate was 0%. Millins of people have tremendous debt and can't buy anythng because of it. That would lead one to believe that the S&P should drop below 815 eventually, then bottom out. The market went up from mid-2002 with fantasy cash. Cash people would never be able to repay. Lowe's, Home Depot, etc. benefitted from it. That cash is gone for good,and will never return.
Earnings will be down for a while, and stocks are based on earnings. The S&P500 could go to 1000 or 600, so a person may want to play it 50% cash and 50% invested. It's a gamble until stability returns.

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long dated euro options are worth far less than american options, I'm pretty sure.

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try to buy one though. Yowzaa. Not easy to find.

I thought this post would ruffle some feathers.

I dont care how smart you think you are, your not going to outsmart the market.

I have come to realize that some of you are better off doing this stuff on your own

Some posters on here know enough to think they know what they are talking about

I really think my point of view, no matter how reasoned, has seriously screwed up the do it yourself love fest on this board

Parliment, if im a douche, then your a tool. Debate the issue, not me

I think this board rules. I do not agree with 95% of what you guys say, but I love debating my view vs. yours

Please give the index mantra a rest. For every index you show me, I can show a fund that runs circles around it.

I hope you guys continue to give me a hard time. I havent had this much fun in a long time.

I am staying fairly diversified although I have gone more to cash and muni bonds over the last year. I have grabbed a few gems in LA as far as muni bonds go.

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Please give the index mantra a rest. For every index you show me, I can show a fund that runs circles around it.

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One that will run circles around it, or did in the past. Hindsight is fun but it doesn't pay very well.

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For every index you show me, I can show a fund that runs circles around it.

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I specifically requested this, and I didn't see the response. I'll start a new thread just for this.

Again, fizzle let me rephrase. I Disagree with 95% of your opinions, not the news, which I would agree is not debatable.

And nope Im not an alter. As to what specifically you think Im arrogant of ignorant about please enlighten me.

What I cant stand about some of the posters here is they would rather take shots at me than my take. I do not remember ever shying away from a direct comment or opinion.

You guys are something. I write a post on cash, timing and the SP500 and few if any of you want to debate it.

your response is: must be a commisioned advisor haha. Now I know his words must be tainted. Only do it yourself tigerdroppings posters know this stuff

or you respond: Its sad he actually believes this stuff, its not funny any more. Must be an alter. He may hold several industry licenses and certifications on financial planning, but what does he know? I listen to jim cramer every night and read the black swan so im smarter

or respond with other ridiculous opinions that hold absolutley no weight.

Next time, you cant debate the issue, I will go ahead and chalk that one up for me