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What factors determine the price of crude?
Posted on 8/30/13 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 8/30/13 at 12:54 pm
There's a fair bit of volatility and the market seems highly complex. I'd like a discussion here about the factors or just recommended articles you might know of.
Of course there's traditional supply and demand factors as with any industry, there's government regulation (or just he fear of it), accidents like Deepwater Horizon cause spikes etc. How much role do OPEC nations really have in determining the price?
I guess this is the time when I say that I'll hangup and listen.
Of course there's traditional supply and demand factors as with any industry, there's government regulation (or just he fear of it), accidents like Deepwater Horizon cause spikes etc. How much role do OPEC nations really have in determining the price?
I guess this is the time when I say that I'll hangup and listen.
4
Posted on 8/30/13 at 1:14 pm to ClydeFrog
I'm curious to read this discussion as well 
Posted on 8/30/13 at 2:08 pm to CQQ
OPEC countries used to have a lot more influence. They still hold a great deal of reserves, but with things like shale oil happening and the U.S. becoming a net exporter, OPEC's influence has been lessened. I will add that over the past couple years there has been a gigantic spread between WTI and Brent due to stranded oil in places like the Bakken. That spread has really tightened up as of late due to increased infrastrucure being developed all across North America. Transportation and infrastructure has a strong influence.
This post was edited on 8/30/13 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 8/30/13 at 2:44 pm to raw dog
quote:
I will add that over the past couple years there has been a gigantic spread between WTI and Brent due to stranded oil in places like the Bakken.
Can you expand on that? When you say stranded oil, are you talking about the Bakken region blowing up as we realized reserves were sky high but then estimations came back down when those reserves were harder to recover?
Found some interesting graphs:
Posted on 8/30/13 at 3:12 pm to ClydeFrog
quote:
When you say stranded oil,
I think he's talking about places that don't have the infrastructure to bring the oil to the world market very easily (lack of pipelines to distribute)
Posted on 8/30/13 at 6:06 pm to ClydeFrog
go read up about what happened with Brent and WTI this past summer when they had severe flooding in Canada. pretty interesting and illuminating IMO.
Posted on 8/30/13 at 6:14 pm to acgeaux129
quote:
go read up about what happened with Brent and WTI this past summer when they had severe flooding in Canada.
Will do, thanks for the recommendation.
Posted on 8/30/13 at 10:24 pm to ClydeFrog
aint for sure. but i do know that permian trust has royally fricked me. 
i'm gonna get a few more quarterly distributions then bail on energy forever.
i'm gonna get a few more quarterly distributions then bail on energy forever.
Posted on 8/31/13 at 3:01 pm to ClydeFrog
Short term price is driven by demand (summer driving season in the U.S.) and supply (Syria) expectations.
Long term price is driven by actual supply (increased oil production in the U.S.) and demand (China GDP, etc)
Eta: to be more concise, it's supply and demand and expectations of both supply and demand.
Long term price is driven by actual supply (increased oil production in the U.S.) and demand (China GDP, etc)
Eta: to be more concise, it's supply and demand and expectations of both supply and demand.
This post was edited on 9/1/13 at 1:56 pm
Posted on 8/31/13 at 6:57 pm to ClydeFrog
Supply and demand, both physical and situational read-though impacts.
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