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Posted on 6/21/22 at 7:59 pm to Grassy1
How are you valuing stocks given the Fed’s pedal-up on QE and engineering impending recession?
Posted on 6/21/22 at 8:42 pm to Grassy1
you think this is the bottom 
Maybe the of the beginning of the plunge
Maybe the of the beginning of the plunge
Posted on 6/22/22 at 8:50 am to Strannix
Recession isn't guaranteed. What happens if it doesn't materialize? All these people are too bearish and will be sitting on the sidelines forever waiting for "tHe HuGe cRaSH"
These same analysts you're listening to that are calling for S&P to go down towards 3400 are the same analysts predicting S&P to be above 4000 next year
These same analysts you're listening to that are calling for S&P to go down towards 3400 are the same analysts predicting S&P to be above 4000 next year
Posted on 6/22/22 at 12:31 pm to JimMorrison
just curious ... what signal would you need to see in order to believe we were either in a recession or that a recession was likely soon?
Posted on 6/22/22 at 2:44 pm to Grassy1
Aside from rounding out my DNN (my 401k account won't let me purchase if a stock is below $1), I'm just holding my money.
We haven't begun the real slide yet (the beginning of that will be when we see Unemployment move back above 4%). I'm considering nothing until the Dow is below 24 (I'm thinking it will go below 21, but 24 before the end of the year is my safe bet).
We haven't begun the real slide yet (the beginning of that will be when we see Unemployment move back above 4%). I'm considering nothing until the Dow is below 24 (I'm thinking it will go below 21, but 24 before the end of the year is my safe bet).
Posted on 6/22/22 at 3:19 pm to JimMorrison
quote:
Recession isn't guaranteed.
In this environment, it is. 100%.
June unemployment will be up slightly.
Tesla to lay off ~3.5% of workforce
Compass to lay off up to 10% of its workforce
Aurora to lay off around 12%
JP Morgan Chase to lay off hundreds
Netflix will have another round of layoffs
July unemployment will be up. August unemployment will be up even more. September unemployment will begin raising eyebrows and October unemployment will have people shitting themselves.
What makes me think this? Because, as I see it, there are three big drivers for our current economic dilemma:
1. O&G prices skyrocketing due to demand far outpacing supply
2. Supply chain issues (both domestic and internationally)
3. Over-liquidity in the market
Of these, only one is actually being dealt with (market liquidity) and that's too little and too late to keep inflation at bay. One is pretty much being ignored in the hopes it will just somehow sort itself out (supply chain issues) and the other is being actively made worse (oil and gas production).
Now add to this the impact of the Russia/Ukraine War (embargo on most of Russian oil, urea supply, fertilizer, etc) has dogpiled onto these issues as well as adding a very likely world food shortage and it's not hard to see that what little is being done will in no way allow us to avoid a recession. At all.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 4:16 am to Shankopotomus
quote:
just curious ... what signal would you need to see in order to believe we were either in a recession or that a recession was likely soon?
If jobless claims begin to significantly increase, then I'd say a recession is near.
Don't get me wrong, the probability of recession is high and if it does happen, then it will be a dip to immediately buy once it is confirmed.
Right now, people are extremely bearish when the market selling is weakening. Tells me we're near the bottom.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 5:17 am to SlidellCajun
quote:
I’m seeing signs of a bottom
Please elaborate. I have yet to see the typical bottom signs myself.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 6:45 am to TigerDeBaiter
Not even getting into technicals, the amount of investor cash on the sidelines is the highest since the start of the pandemic. Look at the reverse repo market.
That alone should begin to provide support for the rest of this year.
That alone should begin to provide support for the rest of this year.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 6:51 am to JimMorrison
Latest Fed DSGE model says 80% chance of a recession with negative DGP growth starting from end of July 2022 through 2023.
Not good.
Not good.
This post was edited on 6/23/22 at 6:52 am
Posted on 6/23/22 at 8:51 am to JimMorrison
Well that’s simply because we printed trillions and trillions.
You can get into the technicals if you want. They’re pretty bad, but we have not had some key bottom signals. No Vix spike, multiples still historically elevated, no typical firm implosions - meaningful ones anyway. Maybe we get this in crypto this time… we’ve had a couple crypto projects implode, but no “ Lehman moment”.
You can get into the technicals if you want. They’re pretty bad, but we have not had some key bottom signals. No Vix spike, multiples still historically elevated, no typical firm implosions - meaningful ones anyway. Maybe we get this in crypto this time… we’ve had a couple crypto projects implode, but no “ Lehman moment”.
Posted on 6/23/22 at 9:45 am to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
but no “ Lehman moment”.
You're really expecting this?
Posted on 6/23/22 at 10:36 am to JimMorrison
Yes
Posted on 6/23/22 at 11:36 am to Grassy1
quote:
Any optimism out there?
No, Call me when Bezos, Elon, etc start buying again
Posted on 6/23/22 at 2:22 pm to JimMorrison
quote:
I'm also long on the biotech sector and adding positions.
The sector has bottomed and turning bullish.
$XBI
$CRSP
$VEEV
$HALO
$VIR
What's going on here?
Posted on 6/23/22 at 2:34 pm to JimMorrison
Looks like Tech is starting to settle a little. You boys sitting on your cash should be nibbling at least a little. My Div portfolio sitting on zero for the day but my Growth is looking good 3 days in row
Only need about a week of these types of days to break even on it
Only need about a week of these types of days to break even on it
This post was edited on 6/23/22 at 2:37 pm
Posted on 6/23/22 at 5:36 pm to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
Yes
You mean outside of the crypto space?
I really can’t think of another sector that has significant leveraged risk or exposure to anything but the most severe economic downturn. But as always, I could be wrong.
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