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Started By
Message
re: Went long gold today
Posted on 12/1/11 at 10:03 am to kfizzle85
Posted on 12/1/11 at 10:03 am to kfizzle85
I should say the fund potentially could be leveraged to 1 trillion and was heavily discussed early this week. The Germans beat it back again but in my OPINION, it will be coming soon.
This post was edited on 12/1/11 at 10:06 am
1
Posted on 12/1/11 at 10:09 am to LSU0358
eta: Nevermind. Still waiting BB to elaborate though.
This post was edited on 12/1/11 at 10:18 am
Posted on 12/1/11 at 2:54 pm to LSU0358
Why do MF Global, multinational banks, hedge funds, insurance companies, and others have the ability to leverage their balance sheet by factors of 3, 5 10, 20X the market cap of their entire companies?
Why are credit default, currency and other swaps arrangements in existence without regulations that limit the ability of a party to take a massive unhedged position that can wipe out the entire firm, industry, customer accounts, the market...?
Why isn't leverage limited or tied to the market cap, book value, plant, property, or cash position of the firm who undertakes a unhedged positon?
Why hasn't any meaningful legislation been passed to break up the banks to take them out of too big to fail status since the 2008 crisis?
Why has there been no legislation to limit the size of the derivatives market and the products offered?
Why were secret loans of 7.77 trillion made to banks 3 years ago only coming to light today?
Why are new dollars being printed to bail out Europe?
Why should I pay more for gas and groceries to prop up a government that has 40% of the population working as gov't employees retiring at 50?
Why would anyone hold a bond in a Eurozone country if they are expected to take a 50% haircut without an actual default?
Why would anyone buy a sovereign credit default swap to protect their Eurozone bond position if the country takes a haircut and you have no default protection?
Why should the average American have confidence in global markets?
Why are credit default, currency and other swaps arrangements in existence without regulations that limit the ability of a party to take a massive unhedged position that can wipe out the entire firm, industry, customer accounts, the market...?
Why isn't leverage limited or tied to the market cap, book value, plant, property, or cash position of the firm who undertakes a unhedged positon?
Why hasn't any meaningful legislation been passed to break up the banks to take them out of too big to fail status since the 2008 crisis?
Why has there been no legislation to limit the size of the derivatives market and the products offered?
Why were secret loans of 7.77 trillion made to banks 3 years ago only coming to light today?
Why are new dollars being printed to bail out Europe?
Why should I pay more for gas and groceries to prop up a government that has 40% of the population working as gov't employees retiring at 50?
Why would anyone hold a bond in a Eurozone country if they are expected to take a 50% haircut without an actual default?
Why would anyone buy a sovereign credit default swap to protect their Eurozone bond position if the country takes a haircut and you have no default protection?
Why should the average American have confidence in global markets?
Posted on 12/1/11 at 2:58 pm to Beerinthepocket
Gold has been money since the time of King Solomon and Alexander the Great. People attach value to the metal no matter what PhDs think.
Let's play this game: Why is the paper U.S. dollar worth anything ?? Why is the Yen worth anything?? Why is the Euro worth anything?? What happened to the Russian Ruble in 1998??
Gold will go down and enter a bear market at some point, but we should not be into picking tops. Gold is in a bull market for many macro fundamental reasons with the main one being government incompetence.
To assume that the market follows the logic that is taught in college courses is a fallacy, and lead by a bunch of charlatans. Check out the LTCM debacle. Those guys were Nobel Prize winners and their statistical model blew up.
For the record gold will go into a bear market. There is a time to own paper and a time to own hard assets.
PhD's
Let's play this game: Why is the paper U.S. dollar worth anything ?? Why is the Yen worth anything?? Why is the Euro worth anything?? What happened to the Russian Ruble in 1998??
Gold will go down and enter a bear market at some point, but we should not be into picking tops. Gold is in a bull market for many macro fundamental reasons with the main one being government incompetence.
To assume that the market follows the logic that is taught in college courses is a fallacy, and lead by a bunch of charlatans. Check out the LTCM debacle. Those guys were Nobel Prize winners and their statistical model blew up.
For the record gold will go into a bear market. There is a time to own paper and a time to own hard assets.
PhD's
Posted on 12/3/11 at 2:32 pm to LSU0358
Not liking the price action from Friday...will probably exit longs Sunday evening
Posted on 12/5/11 at 6:39 am to Beerinthepocket
Posted on 12/5/11 at 7:05 am to lsuoilengr
I agree wIth a few of those, but most of them are over simplified, especially the leverage ones.
Posted on 12/6/11 at 10:18 am to LSU0358
Got back in on the long side again this morning...we shall see if this was a significant bottom in the next day or two I think.
Posted on 12/8/11 at 12:50 pm to LSU0358
Got out about at my last entry...Gold moved down 40 dollars in about one hour this morning. Moves like that usually don't indicate good things.
Posted on 12/11/11 at 10:48 am to lsuoilengr
quote:
Why do MF Global, multinational banks, hedge funds, insurance companies, and others have the ability to leverage their balance sheet by factors of 3, 5 10, 20X the market cap of their entire companies?
A simple answer to all your questions is that the people running the world economy could not produce growth without leverage. Many of those actions were taken to keep the system from collapsing.
I wonder what the price of gold would be when you take out leverage? For that matter, I wonder what the price of any asset would be?
Posted on 12/11/11 at 11:14 am to Blakely Bimbo
I always hear gold investors talk about "printing money" and the devaluation of currency.
But if gold is driven by pure supply and demand, and demand is in large part fueled by these very aforementioned concerns, shouldn't the gold investor welcome this printing/devaluation?
But if gold is driven by pure supply and demand, and demand is in large part fueled by these very aforementioned concerns, shouldn't the gold investor welcome this printing/devaluation?
Posted on 12/11/11 at 11:38 am to RedStickBR
quote:
But if gold is driven by pure supply and demand, and demand is in large part fueled by these very aforementioned concerns, shouldn't the gold investor welcome this printing/devaluation?
Yes. That's exactly why a lot of folks invest in gold - hedging against inflation.
Posted on 12/11/11 at 4:04 pm to saltydawg
quote:
Yes. That's exactly why a lot of folks invest in gold - hedging against inflation.
Too bad gold has been a terrible inflation hedge over the last 30 years.......
Posted on 12/11/11 at 4:18 pm to LSURussian
Been an excellent one the last ten years though.
Posted on 12/11/11 at 8:46 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
But if gold is driven by pure supply and demand, and demand is in large part fueled by these very aforementioned concerns, shouldn't the gold investor welcome this printing/devaluation?
Yes, but who wants to be the dick cheering on the 2nd Great Depression? While they may make out like bandits (if they have possession of their gold), how many of their friends and family would suffer? It would be a bitter-sweet win.
Posted on 12/11/11 at 9:33 pm to Bard
Right. So either people are stupid for buying gold or gold prices really aren't driven by currency devaluation like the ads on talk radio would have you believe.
Maybe gold is a classic example of the Keynesian beauty contest.
It's not currency devaluation which drives the price of gold. It's the collective belief that currency devaluation drives the price of gold, however misplaced that belief may be.
Eventually, there's going to be a disconnect between the price of gold and the value of gold, if not already.
Maybe gold is a classic example of the Keynesian beauty contest.
It's not currency devaluation which drives the price of gold. It's the collective belief that currency devaluation drives the price of gold, however misplaced that belief may be.
Eventually, there's going to be a disconnect between the price of gold and the value of gold, if not already.
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