WEAT - anyone else?

You checked a chart for WEAT? So much of what you said is priced in. It’s worth a shot on continued momentum, but you’re not gonna get massive gains like it’s had since February

I thought it was baked in 2 months ago when I contemplated it. frick me.

It’s basically where it was 2 months ago. It shot to $13 early March, settled at $10 now rising back to $12.50. Unless you looked at it in February, you didn’t miss much. Now if you bought the Russia rumor in January/February and realized Russia’s wheat exports, then you profited handsomely

I’m interested in what commodities traders, specifically wheat experts, already have projected for. They may have already projected for India cutting off exports. Commodities traders are far more knowledgeable generally than most of us retail, the divide is much wider than trading stocks

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There has been so much talk about yield problems, fertilizer/diesel costs

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This is absolutely true. Many of the major foreign competitors will struggle to maintain their yields in the coming year(s) due to the fertilizer crunch (Brazil is probably the poster child of this).

The question then becomes this: how high can food importing countries afford to bid up prices before running out of currency reserves or risking total debasement of their own? Egypt is the number one wheat importer in the world. They are not a wealthy country. They can’t afford to compete once wheat goes to fifteen, twenty, thirty dollars a bushel.

So what will these countries do? Those with no other options will go bankrupt, starve, and collapse into civil war. The U.S. and the rest of the world don’t have the food reserves to spare on aid. It’s a question of when, not if.

The lucky ones with agriculturally viable land in less calorically-intensive crops (think fruit/nut orchards and cotton) will wholesale swap to grains in an attempt to keep the grocery shelves full. Maybe they’ll make it. More importantly, though, those of us who can afford to maintain production in these niche products will make a killing in the coming years, as that infrastructure will take decades for them to rebuild (if it happens at all).