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Started By
Message
re: US Q2 GDP -0.9%
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:03 pm to notiger1997
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:03 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Some of y’all are hysterical like kids with crazy excitement as we head down this path. It’s just strange.
Exactly. It's funny and sad at the same time. The typical posters know who they are, but they'd rather be right and watch the world suffer just so they could say 'I told you so'.
0
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:09 pm to slackster
quote:
It’s definitely a weird recession though
Not going to pretend to know as much as y'all in this thread. But doesn't it seem to be a little early in this recession to call it a weird recession?
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:10 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
Jjdoc
Enough of the layoff talk. For anyone with a brain it holds no water. It's for headlines only. Companies layoff employees every single day. Show the % of workforce laid off with each of these posts. When it gets close to 10% of the total workforce for these major companies, then you can panic.
The headlines love to show you raw numbers. Oh look, Ford laid off 8K employees! Fear porn. They employee almost 200K worldwide.
Next, start showing how many open positions these companies have at the same time. I bet you'll be surprised. So layoffs may happen but they'll be targeted and specific to certain low value areas, while higher value areas they can't fill fast enough and will have thousands of job openings.
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:17 pm to grizzlylongcut
quote:
But doesn't it seem to be a little early in this recession to call it a weird recession?
It’s absolutely a weird start. It may/will turn into a traditional recession, but if you’re claiming 1/1/2022 as the start date, it will be tough to find an analog in history that had improving employment numbers for the first 6 months of the recession.
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:19 pm to slackster
quote:
It’s absolutely a weird start. It may/will turn into a traditional recession, but if you’re claiming 1/1/2022 as the start date, it will be tough to find an analog in history that had improving employment numbers for the first 6 months of the recession.
Wouldn’t that have a lot to do with the pandemic though?
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:28 pm to slackster
quote:
It’s absolutely a weird start. It may/will turn into a traditional recession, but if you’re claiming 1/1/2022 as the start date, it will be tough to find an analog in history that had improving employment numbers for the first 6 months of the recession.
Add in getting Oil/Gas lower than that helps but i believe it started dropping due to Recession talk we shall see.
Posted on 7/28/22 at 3:23 pm to slackster
Considering there is probably no corollary in the modern US economy for the situation of the past few years, I guess we shouldn't be surprised how weird everything has been including this.
Posted on 7/28/22 at 3:56 pm to Bard
quote:
I felt a bit lazy about not looking up any debt information before posting that (my work expects me to do my job sometimes).
CNBC, July 26, 2022
You do realize that actual article is using 4Q2019 data, right?
Probably not. Credit card debt is currently $841B. Pretty nice drop from 2019.
Posted on 7/28/22 at 4:02 pm to slackster
You a damn sunshine pumper for responding like this. LOL
This post was edited on 7/28/22 at 4:37 pm
Posted on 7/28/22 at 4:34 pm to slackster
quote:
For example, 2021 GDP is irrelevant.
It's relevant when looking at how off today's Q2 number appears to be. I reference the increase in 2021 from Q1 to Q2 to underscore how bizarre only a .9% drop in GDP is in the Q2 environment of 2022 (when backdropped by Q1 being -1.6%).
GDP increased from Q1 to Q2 in 2021 by .4%. We didn't have the economic woes then that we see now. GDP for Q1 2022 dropped by 1.6%, which makes sense when looking at the skyrocketing inflation and fuel prices leading up to and then through Q1. Considering that prices have only continued to rise throughout Q2, we should have seen at least a drop of ~1.4-1.6% for Q2 as these are YoY numbers.
My point is that, considering our economic environment now compared to last year, we should see at least the same amount of drop for Q2 as we did for Q1 as nothing improved in the quarter to account for such a smaller drop. We can say people went harder on their credit cards, but that much? I mean, it could happen but if so then that should frighten the frick out of the credit card companies, mortgage companies, etc.
Posted on 7/28/22 at 5:00 pm to Bard
quote:
My point is that, considering our economic environment now compared to last year, we should see at least the same amount of drop for Q2 as we did for Q1 as nothing improved in the quarter to account for such a smaller drop. We can say people went harder on their credit cards, but that much? I mean, it could happen but if so then that should frighten the frick out of the credit card companies, mortgage companies, etc.
I don't think you can directly compare them though. Q2 2021 we were still just coming out of Covid fear. We are well past that now. While the economy itself may be in similar shape, the social lives of people is very different today than 1 year ago. Similarly, global logistics are objectively better today than 1 year ago. There are still severe issues, but things like port and container backlogs are not as bad as they were in Q2 2021.
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