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re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets
Posted on 12/20/18 at 3:33 pm to Doc Fenton
Posted on 12/20/18 at 3:33 pm to Doc Fenton
1800 SPX target on this first big leg by Spring is exactly what I think too, Doc
It just boggles my mind how people don't want to trade what they see right in front of them and instead want to catch a falling knife while hoping.
Makes no sense. But cognitive dissonance and recency bias are strong habits to break for some.
It just boggles my mind how people don't want to trade what they see right in front of them and instead want to catch a falling knife while hoping.
Makes no sense. But cognitive dissonance and recency bias are strong habits to break for some.
This post was edited on 12/20/18 at 3:34 pm
3
Posted on 12/20/18 at 3:45 pm to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
Hopefully Tesla does not survive as an added bonus.
I read a few days ago that Tesla has a $1 billion bond due date approaching soon....I believe in February or March, 2019.
If TSLA's stock price is at least $359/share (I'm pretty sure that's the strike price but I'm relying on my memory) by the due date, then Tesla has to repay the bonds with cash in full. If TSLA exceeds $359/share then the bondholders can be repaid with shares of stock.
It makes a huge difference in the impact on Tesla's liquidity position.
As of the date of the article I was reading, Tesla was not projected to have enough cash-on-hand to pay the bondholders with cash and would have to re-finance the debt at what would likely be even a higher risk rate, and Tesla's current debt is already paying junk bonds interest rate.
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:06 pm to LSURussian
Wow, and yet this company is trading at a what, 50B market cap?
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:13 pm to Hussss
quote:
1800 SPX target on this first big leg by Spring is exactly what I think too, Doc
Lemme get this straight. You’re predicting the s&p to drop 40% off its high, correct?
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:14 pm to Hussss
If we hit 1800 I’m eating pbj sandwiches to free up capital. That would be a ridiculously low PE level.
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:15 pm to leoj
I’ve got lots of dry powder that’s allocated for other things that would be getting dumped into the market post haste
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:16 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
Total? Absolutely not. MUCH more
60% minimum by the end of 2020.
If I had to put an ultimate target, it would be 1300 SPX
60% minimum by the end of 2020.
If I had to put an ultimate target, it would be 1300 SPX
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:17 pm to Hussss
You’re either off the rails or hitting some gigantic rails
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:20 pm to leoj
We were not THAT far from 1800 when Trump was elected.
The froth since his election has been mostly tax cuts
The froth before him was debt and leverage after the GFC was papered over with debt and leverage instead of fixing the fundamental issues which are still here but now with much more debt and leverage.
The froth since his election has been mostly tax cuts
The froth before him was debt and leverage after the GFC was papered over with debt and leverage instead of fixing the fundamental issues which are still here but now with much more debt and leverage.
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:27 pm to Hussss
Just to be fair, I need you to understand what you’re saying
You are talking about the largest market collapse in history
You are talking about the largest market collapse in history
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:32 pm to Hussss
quote:If by "not THAT far" means almost a 20% margin of error then I agree with you.
We were not THAT far from 1800 when Trump was elected.
The last time the S&P500 was at 1800 you have to go back almost 5 years to February 11, 2014.
We learned yesterday you don't know anything about U.S. history. Today we learned you suck at math.
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:34 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
I don't think you understand just how big of an artificial bubble the housing market, stock market and bond market have been in.
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:35 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
Go through his post history. He's... interesting. 
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:37 pm to Hussss
quote:
I don't think you understand just how big of an artificial bubble the housing market, stock market and bond market have been in.
Bro
Stock market drops of 10-20% are normal and happen on average every 2-3 years
This correction is based mostly on fear. Remember what our ole buddy Dub-Buffs said about fear
This post was edited on 12/20/18 at 4:39 pm
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:40 pm to Hussss
Spell out those details
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:44 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
I traded the dot com bubble, the 2008 GFC, May 2010 flash crash, 2011 sovereign debt crisis and the 2015 Chinese devaluation / commodity crash. I know what price action and volume tells me. Of course markets go up on greed and drop on fear. Listen to Buffett all you want and read his annual letter to shareholders, I actually enjoy the letter but WATCH what he does, not what he says.
This post was edited on 12/20/18 at 4:48 pm
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:48 pm to Hussss
quote:
I actually enjoy the letter but WATCH what he does, not what he says.
Are you insinuating that the head of one of the largest companies on the market manipulates the markets? I’m pretty sure the SEC and FBI would have something to say about that
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:55 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
No, he is sitting on a huge cash hoard so watch for him to finally do some deals and once he is wanting to deploy capital, you will know the worst is behind us.
He is normally a great market timer except for tech mainly.
He is normally a great market timer except for tech mainly.
Posted on 12/20/18 at 4:56 pm to Hussss
quote:
No, he is sitting on a huge cash hoard so watch for him to finally do some deals and once he is wanting to deploy capital, you will know the worst is behind us.
So he’s following his advice to a T, correct? He never said to buy on the way down
Posted on 12/20/18 at 5:06 pm to Hussss
quote:Buffett never, ever, never tries to time the market. Never. He gets criticized for NOT trying to time the market. (See his recent tripling of his Apple holdings near Apple’s all-time high price.)
He is normally a great market timer
He sometimes has the opportunity to buy at distressed prices such as his BAC and GE transactions durung the Great Recession simply because he’s got the money available when companies knock on his door looking for a white knight investor.
He even has an investing principle on the topic: “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
You continue to make a complete fool out of yourself.
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