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re: There are some major issues lurking in the US financial markets

Posted on 12/27/18 at 3:26 pm to
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
36544 posts
Posted on 12/27/18 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

First of year will be very telling if we actually found a bottom yet but I believe so




Started from the bottom, now we here
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
8850 posts
Posted on 12/27/18 at 3:30 pm to
Nobody liked the Homeward Rebound link?

Damnit... that was set up to be my post of the year.

Just here for the upvotes:
Page 16
This post was edited on 12/27/18 at 3:33 pm
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11847 posts
Posted on 12/27/18 at 4:44 pm to
quote:

The bulls let the bears run into a trap and then mowed them down.



ya that was a healthy ramp today wasn't it?
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 12/28/18 at 11:20 am to
quote:

President Trump himself just jumped on the bandwagon and advised people to "buy the dip" (on Christmas Day, no less)


Some new hints on this story from CNBC: " Trump administration asks top investor for advice on markets amid wild ride for stocks."

quote:

A high-ranking Trump administration official reached out to at least one well known investor for advice on markets after a recent drubbing for stocks, sources told CNBC.

The call took place after a sell-off on Christmas Eve, the worst day of Dec. 24 trading ever.


Carl Icahn would be my guess.
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 12/28/18 at 11:20 am to
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 12/28/18 at 11:22 am to
I kept getting confused from the lack of volume, but it was pretty funny once I watched the whole thing.
Posted by CajunTiger92
Member since Dec 2007
2860 posts
Posted on 12/28/18 at 11:43 am to



BTW. It was more than one positive day.
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 12/28/18 at 11:51 am to
I know.

I just got lost in Reddit threads after following that link from LSUcam7 and had to share.

Anyway, in terms of short-term movements, I do think the Trump story is significant, because I don't think he would have gone out on a limb like that unless he had a plan to give the markets a nice bump. My best guess is that he will do something going into those U.S.-China trade talks the week of 1/7 - 1/11 that could easily lift the S&P 500 by over 100 points. I'm still very bearish on what happens after that wears off though.
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11847 posts
Posted on 12/28/18 at 12:07 pm to
quote:

My best guess is that he will do something going into those U.S.-China trade talks the week of 1/7 - 1/11 that could easily lift the S&P 500 by over 100 points.


This is the lock of the year. However, news will break a week later about negotiation issues again and the momo dies. When the markets keep falling we will see the Fed balk on raising rates, reverse and boom, the Yellen put continues.
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
8850 posts
Posted on 12/28/18 at 12:29 pm to
I fell out of my beanbag chair when GE (Shadow) appeared.

Market fluctuations aside we have to keep our Comitas in check!
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 1/2/19 at 8:30 am to
The game begins...

CNBC: " US Trade Rep. Lighthizer thinks more tariffs could be needed to get meaningful China concessions"

Look for comments going in the opposite direction either later today or tomorrow.

Then, Powell will give some remarks on Friday, and it's probable that he will try to walk back the tone of his "autopilot" remarks from December.

Then I think the markets take a big leg down. It may have started already today, but I think the rally might last a few days longer.
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26715 posts
Posted on 1/2/19 at 8:46 am to
This is such a weak rally. A LOT more pain to come, and it will be shortly
Posted by Hussss
Helena, AL
Member since Oct 2016
7777 posts
Posted on 1/2/19 at 9:21 am to
2525-2550 SPX is critical resistance to get through. My bet is one more leg down to re-test 2350 before a big rally back up to 2600-2650 area. Look out below after that (my SPX 1800 call this Spring).
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 1/2/19 at 10:01 am to
So you see another big rally after this one, eh? We'll see.

In other news, the 1-yr yield on UST just inverted ( LINK) with the 7-yr yield, and is now only 0.06% below the 10-yr yield.

1-yr yield = 2.613%
10-yr yield = 2.673%
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 1/2/19 at 10:15 am to
Also, if you're interested in anecdotes from the rumor mill, I spoke with a hedge fund guy at a NYE party who seems sure that GE will go into Chapter 11 this year. GE opened 2017 with an adjusted price of $29.36/sh, but dropped to as low as $6.66/sh on 12/11/2018. It has since rallied to where it is now at $8.10/sh, but may not be out of the woods yet.
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26715 posts
Posted on 1/2/19 at 12:34 pm to
Nice
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 1/2/19 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

“We had a little glitch in the stock market last month, but we’re still up about 30 percent from the time I got elected,” says Trump. “It’s going to go up once we settle trade issues and a couple of other things happen.” ( LINK)


That's about as explicit as you can possibly get in the realm of "I'm going to do something with trade soon to make sure that the stock market receives a bounce."

Once it comes, then "sell the bounce."
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26715 posts
Posted on 1/2/19 at 4:28 pm to
What a con artist. Also, every president tries to tie themselves to something they cannot really control. Trump chose quite possibly the worst entity for that: financial markets!
This post was edited on 1/2/19 at 4:29 pm
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11847 posts
Posted on 1/2/19 at 4:42 pm to
Who is your serial downvoter? lmao definitely a long FANG in December
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26715 posts
Posted on 1/3/19 at 12:34 pm to
quote:

That's about as explicit as you can possibly get in the realm of "I'm going to do something with trade soon to make sure that the stock market receives a bounce."

Once it comes, then "sell the bounce."


I think Apple ruined that possibility. People will soon find out that "low P/Es" during a bear market are fallacious.
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