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Message

re: The Great Recession of March 3,2025

Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:13 am to
Posted by Boss
Member since Dec 2007
1749 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:13 am to
So that's a no. You litereally provided no actual studies.
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
6428 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:15 am to
quote:

This is a lie.


No it isn't.

quote:

Becoming a manufacturing nation again isn't the solution. This will cause massive inflation as cost of goods skyrockets due to increased labor charges.


Studies show that to be wrong. What people do not count is the wages that increase.

This was done with washing machines in Trump's 1st term. 2018-2023 washing machine tariffs stimulated investment in domestic production and led to no long-term price increases. Washing machine prices are now below pre-tariff levels, and prices have risen less than consumer inflation.

Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
6428 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:18 am to
quote:

So that's a no. You litereally provided no actual studies.


In other words, you were not serious. It's ok. The names of the studies are there for anybody to look up.

Posted by Boss
Member since Dec 2007
1749 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:21 am to
I pulled your study since you are too laze to do so
Study

Following receipt of the Secretary’s report, President Trump imposed an additional 25 percent ad
valorem tariff on steel articles imported from all but a select number of countries. These tariffs went
into effect on March 23, 2018. The investigation of aluminum imports reported similar findings and recommendations. The President subsequently imposed a 10 percent additional tariff on aluminum imports, which also went into effect on March 23, 2018.4 Since the imposition of the steel and aluminum tariffs, several countries have been fully or partially exempted from the tariffs, with many top U.S. suppliers—including Canada and Mexico—fully or partially exempt from the tariffs for much of the life of the tariffs. In most cases, the specifics of these alterations differed across countries and the two tariff actions. Numerous steel and aluminum products were also granted exclusions on a case-by-case basis.



And then this from the same study....

This implies that a 10 percent ad valorem tariff
raised the price of U.S. imports from China by about 10 percent. This nearly complete pass-through
(meaning that prices received by exporters were largely unaffected and prices paid by U.S. importers
increased by the same amount as the tariffs) is unusual but has been similarly found by other recent
studies, which conclude that U.S. importers have borne almost the full burden of section 301 tariffs.



This is 5 minutes of me reading the study you failed to provide. Tell me how is the cost not passed through?
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4030 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:24 am to
There are so many variables here missing from the discussion. Not every benefit is economic.

I could write a novel here but suffice to say, all of these actions are part of a greater “globalization” plan from Trump and the Tech Bros.

It’s easy to bring manufacturing home when “home” is north and Central America.

Trump wants an “EU” type deal that includes the U.S.

This is a good idea. It’s just funny because most of Trumps base are “bill gates one world government antichrist George bush did 9/11” types, but are completely oblivious to the end goal here.

Democrats aren’t even trying to meaningfully fight this because it’s what they’ve wanted for years as well.
This post was edited on 3/4/25 at 11:25 am
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:25 am to
quote:

What people do not count is the wages that increase


So more inflation. Yay! Manufacturing wage increases mean price of goods increases.
Posted by Boss
Member since Dec 2007
1749 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:25 am to
And again from your study....but prices didn't increase???

Prices of imports from China in 2021 are estimated to be higher with the tariffs in place—up to 22–25 percent for Semiconductors and Other Electronic Components, Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen
Cabinets, and Audio and Video Equipment. Prices of domestically produced goods are estimated to have increased by up to 3–4 percent in some industries. On average, across both imports and domestically produced products, prices in these sectors increased by up to 7.1 percent for Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinets in 2021.
Posted by NoMercy
Member since Feb 2007
4686 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:29 am to
There is enough savings in fraud, waste, and abuse in the government to basically pay the interest. After that is to start making money to pay down the debt which tariffs may or may not be one of the avenues. We are not quite at the point of no return yet. You start slowly shrinking this crap over time, we know we can run the country at those levels and the markets everyone are crying about will flourish back and beyond.

Now idiots like throughout this board will have a hissy fit at the slightest pain and vote in retards, and we will never get the decades of running competently that we need to to get back close to no debt like we need. But it has to be attempted or it will all fall apart. Do you think it all falling apart completely and establishing some new type of system is going to magically transfer over your current wealth especially as the common Joe?


Also I fully expect to never get the wasteful cuts through because of politicians because they are all arse. I loathe politicians which was the #1 reason I started voting for Trump back in 2016. F all politicians for their bullshite.
This post was edited on 3/4/25 at 11:34 am
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
6428 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:30 am to
quote:

I pulled your study since you are too laze to do so
Study


No no. I told you I only had it in PDF form. Since you want to take to a being a dick, the word is lazy not laze.


quote:

This is 5 minutes of me reading the study you failed to provide. Tell me how is the cost not passed through?


Read it.

quote:

The President subsequently imposed a 10 percent additional tariff on aluminum imports, which also went into effect on March 23, 2018.4 Since the imposition of the steel and aluminum tariffs, several countries have been fully or partially exempted from the tariffs, with many top U.S. suppliers—including Canada and Mexico—fully or partially exempt from the tariffs for much of the life of the tariffs.


So glad you highlighted that. You don't see it do you? Think about that for a few minutes.

quote:

This implies that a 10 percent ad valorem tariff
raised the price of U.S. imports from China by about 10 percent. This nearly complete pass-through
(meaning that prices received by exporters were largely unaffected and prices paid by U.S. importers
increased by the same amount as the tariffs) is unusual but has been similarly found by other recent
studies, which conclude that U.S. importers have borne almost the full burden of section 301 tariffs.


is unusual

Interesting. Now continue on with the whole thing.


Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
6428 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:31 am to
quote:

There are so many variables here missing from the discussion. Not every benefit is economic.



True.

Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
6428 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:33 am to
quote:

So more inflation


LOL! Bless your heart VA. I thought you better than most in conversation.

Again.. If tariffs raised prices and the studies suggests (which is .02% to.7%) but wages increase 5.7% what is the net of that?
Posted by JoylessMurderball
Member since Sep 2024
190 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:36 am to
quote:

So more inflation. Yay! Manufacturing wage increases mean price of goods increases.


What is that percentage of increase? I do believe there is an understanding that with a larger American production force that their would be slight price increase for some goods made here. Do you not believe that given the choice some Americans would prefer to "buy American". Isn't it the same idea as supporting local businesses in all of our local communities?
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
6428 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:36 am to
quote:

Prices of imports from China in 2021 are estimated to be higher with the tariffs in place—up to 22–25 percent


Not worried about China. They are losing manufacturing big time. Second, you are quoting from a time when Trump was not in office. Try again.


quote:

Prices of domestically produced goods are estimated to have increased by up to 3–4 percent in some industries. On average, across both imports and domestically produced products, prices in these sectors increased by up to 7.1 percent for Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinets in 2021.


And again, you are talking about a different president with a different policy.

Keep digging. You will get there at some point if you are an honest broker.
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:38 am to
I'm looking to be reasonable but all the name calling and labeling gets me off-kilter sometimes.

And I know that bless your heart isn't a compliment in the south.

BTW, I was referring wages going up in manufacturing which will only result in prices going up. There isn't a clear win in this situation. More manufacturing in the US will take years to occur but the status quo isn't a rosy image either.
Posted by Boss
Member since Dec 2007
1749 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:38 am to
Ok, you are purely political and actually don't want to talk about economics at all. Cool, I just know to ignore you from now on.
Posted by VABuckeye
NOVA
Member since Dec 2007
38283 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:39 am to
quote:

Isn't it the same idea as supporting local businesses in all of our local communities?


That went away in most communities when Walmart started building on the edge of town in small town America. Some are recovering but it's taken a long, long time.
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
6428 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:46 am to
quote:

I'm looking to be reasonable but all the name calling and labeling gets me off-kilter sometimes.


I'm not name calling...

quote:

And I know that bless your heart isn't a compliment in the south.


No, but not an insult either.

quote:

BTW, I was referring wages going up in manufacturing which will only result in prices going up. There isn't a clear win in this situation. More manufacturing in the US will take years to occur but the status quo isn't a rosy image either.


Truth.

The issue here, for me and me alone, is this:

- We have killed our middle class for no real gains. Our welfare systems have greatly increase in part due to this.

- 1955, family average wage $4400, 3 bedroom house $7900. Today, average pay is 62K and the average home sold is 512K. We should work to get back to that.

- That does not mean we have to forego tech, services, etc. It's not an either or.

- We can't even produce alot of our own meds. That's dangerous.


Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
6428 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:49 am to
quote:

Ok, you are purely political


This is not about political parties. This is about policies.


quote:

actually don't want to talk about economics at all.


That is what we are talking about Boss. Free Trade is not the end all of economics. We have the results and there is no denying them if you are honest.

quote:

Cool, I just know to ignore you from now on.


That's strictly your choice to make.

Posted by JoylessMurderball
Member since Sep 2024
190 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:49 am to
quote:

That went away in most communities when Walmart started building on the edge of town in small town America. Some are recovering but it's taken a long, long time.


I don't disagree. I think locally you see it more with services (sanitation, lawn care,etc). I may be naive but I just believe that there is a large group of Americans that are okay with spending more for American made goods ILO of products from overseas. It also would probably lead to those American manufacturing workers spending more money with local services due to the increased wages.
Posted by hikingfan
Member since Jun 2013
1757 posts
Posted on 3/4/25 at 11:50 am to
quote:

Again.. If tariffs raised prices and the studies suggests (which is .02% to.7%) but wages increase 5.7% what is the net of that?

Bro, we get it. The tariffs are good. Yes it will make inflation worse. Yes that means the fed won’t lower rates. Yes that means interest payments on our debt will balloon.

But once Bill Cletus in Oklahoma learns how to build GPUs and we discover rare earth metals in America, the economy is going to rip.
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