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re: Tellurian: A Potential Hundred Bagger?

Posted on 5/28/21 at 10:51 am to
Posted by TenLittleIndians
The Oaks
Member since Feb 2020
115 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 10:51 am to
quote:

quote:
i'm riding this one to early retirement or $0.


Grabbed 15k shares this morning. I will be back later to thank you or shun you like AntiqueTiger


1 month update, up 83.80% and still holding
Posted by ChasinTails
USA
Member since Oct 2017
162 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 11:20 am to
quote:

1 month update, up 83.80% and still holding


frick yeah. Diamond hands.
Posted by Clint Torres
Member since Oct 2011
2832 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 11:42 am to
quote:

1 month update, up 83.80% and still holding


Ha.. I've been wondering when you'd drop back by this thread
Posted by METAL
Member since Nov 2020
1544 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 11:56 am to
166.24%.

Not selling. Just gonna roll the strike price up.
Posted by TenLittleIndians
The Oaks
Member since Feb 2020
115 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

Ha.. I've been wondering when you'd drop back by this thread


I owe you a beer or 10 or some Pappy Van Winkle
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 12:54 pm to
Just hit $4.19, blew past the $4.13 high from yesterday.
Posted by SkinnyTestaverde
Fort Lauderdale
Member since Dec 2009
401 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 1:58 pm to
So do they ever actually build a plant?
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
14453 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 2:55 pm to
Holy shite what a finish!
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 3:11 pm to
Huh we talking TELL or STLHF? Haha. I actually think TELL might be the lower risk option right now. Driftwood is gonna be built boys, no way they just did that one deal in isolation. Damn that STLHF JV needs to get done...
Posted by Delacroix22
Member since Aug 2013
4537 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 3:13 pm to
Bought 50 shares of TELL for $3.92

Thanks for the advice. In on this one!
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 3:14 pm to
I’m in for 50K shares now. Sold some July $8 covered calls and starting to get worried they might get exercised!
Posted by Clint Torres
Member since Oct 2011
2832 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 3:18 pm to
quote:

I’m in for 50K shares now.


Damn.. wish i was holding that.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 3:22 pm to
Honestly I think in 10 years TELL will have a higher market cap than Cheniere. My main concern is management killing the momentum too soon by doing a big offering.
This post was edited on 5/28/21 at 3:24 pm
Posted by ChasinTails
USA
Member since Oct 2017
162 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

Honestly I think in 10 years TELL will have a higher market cap than Cheniere. My main concern is management killing the momentum too soon by doing a big offering.


Interesting.. can you elaborate? Genuinely curious.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 4:36 pm to
It’s going to be a much newer, more ESG friendly, and larger capacity facility than Cheniere’s. And with their vertically integrated model they are going to control their own gas supply from the Haynesville wells all the way to the Driftwood terminal.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23479 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 4:40 pm to
quote:

Interesting.. can you elaborate? Genuinely curious.
I don’t know you nor do I know how much you know about the market.

With that said, if you’re asking him to elaborate on the “offering” he’s worried that the company, in order to raise money, will issue new shares of stock.

The downside of this is that you and everyone who already owned shares would then own a smaller portion of the company.

In a word, your shares are being “diluted.”
So when the market cap increases, your shares won’t increase as much as they would have before the offering.
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 4:43 pm to
Yeah they have a $200M shelf offering that they can start using at any time. So that’s about 10% dilution at current market cap. Hopefully they are smart enough not to use it until all the deals are announced and price is much higher.
Posted by ChasinTails
USA
Member since Oct 2017
162 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 4:50 pm to
Ok, yes the offering is exactly what i was worried about and it’s something I’ve never thought about. Hopefully they will not have to fire the bullet of another offering unless it’s necessary.

Does Charif have a history of doing this? He’s the reason why I bought in early and will continue to buy.
Posted by SkinnyTestaverde
Fort Lauderdale
Member since Dec 2009
401 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 5:09 pm to
And the first time I actually sell the news it doesn’t go down. Never god dam fails LOL

Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13945 posts
Posted on 5/28/21 at 5:26 pm to
Yes and no. Outstanding shares were roughly 250m pre COVID and are now roughly 400M. They had do to most of that to survive. Charif and his family are massive shareholders so alignment is good there. But Driftwood is gonna cost $17B to build and not all of that can be financed with debt. They will probably use most of $200M offering to expedite pre FID construction and acquire more Haynesville assets if I had to guess.
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