re: So when do we buy Boeing?

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Announcement of grounding here in the US and whispers of a controls malfunction. Liable to see a nice little dip.

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FYI............
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2019 (737 Max 8)
The new, larger engines and other design features left the aircraft [7378 Max] with a tendency to stall in certain situations, a problem Boeing fixed with software that would force the nose of the airliner down.
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2008 (Airbus 330) Qantas Airlines Flight 72 4 minute video
Final report: After detailed forensic analysis of the FDR data, the flight control primary computer (FCPC) software and the air data inertial reference unit (ADIRU), it was determined that the CPU of the ADIRU corrupted the angle of attack (AOA) data. The exact nature was that the ADIRU CPU erroneously relabelled the altitude data word so that the binary data that represented 37,012 (the altitude at the time of the incident) would represent an angle of attack of 50.625 degrees. The FCPC then processed the erroneously high AOA data, triggering the high-AOA protection mode, which sent a command to the electrical flight control system (EFCS) to pitch the nose down. LINK
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After the Quantas Flight 72 accident, the investigators discovered there were 2 similar prior incidents (nose-down). My money's on the software and not the integrity of the aircraft itself.

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I really wish I understood what you are talking about.

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Just selling a put. If you're content buying a stock at a certain price ($325, for example) by a certain date, selling a put allows you to collect a premium ($640/contract in that example) while you wait for the option's expiration date (June 21, 2019). If it doesn't hit below the strike price, you keep the full option premium. If it does ($324.99 or lower) and you get assigned, then you could be forced to buy the stock at that price ($325), even though it might be trading well below that price ($300 or $250, etc.). You can also buy the option contract back (at a gain or a loss) if you want to exit the trade.

IV is implied volatility (the higher the IV, the higher the premium generally is). Delta is the amount an option price is expected to move based on a $1 change in the underlying stock, and it's frequently used synonymously with probability in the options world. So using that measure, a 16 delta put would have a *roughly* 16% probability of finishing in the money (a loser) vs. an 84% probability of finishing out of the money (a winner) when I wrote that post. The actual in the money calculation was closer to 20% as best I recall. Delta doesn't always match up exactly to the probabilities - but it's close enough for a quick assessment.

Several guys that used to post here (maybe still lurk) were also active in the options market. I just tossed that out for anyone else who might be considering BA at a certain price level - like I said, I'm not recommending that anyone do that play. I generally stick with weekly options. I'm not comfortable going out that far in something like this that has so much potential event risk.

I haven't followed Boeing closely longer than 5 years; but did the 787 issues result in 330 or so deaths?

I would think this is a pending liability in a different stratosphere than the comparison. I mean they are going to be dealing with the lawsuits from these people forever.

But the point that the bad perception was overcome is valid I guess. Just not sure if the problem results in so many notable fatalities.

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I've been trying to figure out options. I listen to that show "option action" sometimes in the afternoon on Fridays on CNBC and they might as well be speaking another language but it's still interesting. Not really interested in having a second job as a "trader" but it's fascinating to me.


I think I get the overall basics of what you want and don't want to happen when you make each type of option trade, but the details still elude me. Is the 6.40 price based on buyer demand of the same option, some formula, or like a brokerage is setting "odds" using whatever methods they individually use. For example, could you shop around and get different contract prices?

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Not really. You can pull up the CBOE site or app and the bid/ask pricing is going to be the same as what's on most broker platforms. If you get into thinly traded or illiquid securities, things might get a little weird. But I wouldn't mess with that stuff.

Let me recommend a really good site and podcast for you here and then maybe I'll start another thread that deals with options since this isn't Boeing specific (we used to have one, but it's been awhile).
The site is Option Alpha. The app is in the Apple App store and Google Play. There are several others, like Tasty Trade, etc. But I think this site's owner, Kirk Du Plessis, does a great job of teaching people the basics, plus his site has LOADS of free information and tutorials... and Kirk does what I do: primarily sell premium. I generally only buy options to form the protective wings on credit spreads if it's not a naked position. I'm familiar with Options Action. Like most things on CNBC (and all the rest), it's entertaining, but not all that informative or useful, IMO. I promise you, you'll get a lot more out of Option Alpha.

It is fascinating investment area. And if you stick with it, it can be VERY profitable. With stocks, I have to be directional. With options, I don't. Good luck.