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Posted on 8/4/11 at 2:57 pm to LSURussian
Last week you were talking about getting into the VIX, do you still have it or did you sell?
Posted on 8/4/11 at 3:05 pm to TheDirty1
The carnge will continue tomorrow. Next week you ight see some rebound buying but this trend will last awhile.
Prob. drop another 200 on unemployment numbers.
Prob. drop another 200 on unemployment numbers.
This post was edited on 8/4/11 at 3:06 pm
Posted on 8/4/11 at 3:16 pm to Tiger JJ
quote:Over 33 at the close.
VIX at 27 - does that mean it's time to get in?
If Warren Buffett is correct and the time to be greedy is when others are fearful, it might be a good time to go "all in" because today scared the shite out of me.....
Posted on 8/4/11 at 3:16 pm to tmoney
Are you just throwing a number out there? Market is expecting 75-100, so 200 would be a pretty huge miss given that its 100-125% higher than expected.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 3:18 pm to kfizzle85
quote:Read his post again, kfizz.
Market is expecting 75-100, so 200 would be a pretty huge miss
"What we have heah, is a failuh to communicate!" - Cool Hand Luke
Posted on 8/4/11 at 3:38 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
Market is expecting 75-100,
What was the "market " expecting today?
Dow will open lower on sales pressure that didn't get throug today then bounce back a little then finish with a controlled, non panic, slide. Remember "markets" are people.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 3:41 pm to tmoney
quote:
What was the "market" expecting today?
Yall are talking about two different things. He misread and thought you were talking about 200k new jobs and he was saying the market is expecting 75k new jobs. But you are talking about being down 200 points if bad numbers come out.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 3:42 pm to LSURussian
quote:
If Warren Buffett is correct and the time to be greedy is when others are fearful, it might be a good time to go "all in" because today scared the shite out of me.....
I went "all in" when we were still down around 320. I am starting a new job on Monday where I will not be allowed to actively trade in a personal account, so it didn't leave me much of a choice. I have a bad feeling about what I did
This post was edited on 8/4/11 at 3:45 pm
Posted on 8/4/11 at 3:42 pm to tmoney
quote:I think you two guys are referring to different numbers. kfizz thinks the "75-100" is the forecast increase in non-farm payrolls which will be announced Friday morning.
Market is expecting 75-100,
What was the "market " expecting today?
You think he's referring to the Dow Jones average.
At least that is what it looks like to me.
If I'm wrong, both of you can GFY.....
Posted on 8/4/11 at 3:43 pm to LSURussian
That explains it! Thanks for the clarification!
yes i was referring to the DOW.
yes i was referring to the DOW.
This post was edited on 8/4/11 at 3:44 pm
Posted on 8/4/11 at 3:49 pm to tmoney
Yeah I thought you were referring to the unemployment numbers. I see the market going somewheres between 800 down and 900 up tomorrow, not sure yet.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 3:55 pm to kfizzle85
quote:Is there a fat or skinny "tail" on that prediction?
I see the market going somewheres between 800 down and 900 up tomorrow, not sure yet.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 4:00 pm to LSURussian
Nah I just want to cover my bases so I can come back tomorrow and show my prediction prowess.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 4:06 pm to kfizzle85
quote:I know you don't follow the Poli Board so I'll tell you of a prediction "Rex" made today.
I just want to cover my bases so I can come back tomorrow and show my prediction prowess.
When the Dow Jones was down about 300 points this morning and people were naturally blaming Obama for it (go figure!), Rex chimed in and predicted the DJ would rally and close only
down 145 points today.
He's catching hell in that thread now for his forecasting ability.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 4:20 pm to LSURussian
Today was ugly times ugly.
Tomorrow will just be ugly.
Tomorrow will just be ugly.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 4:23 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Over 33 at the close.
It's important, though, to not be tricked by these VIX prints. The VIX is actually a sneaky complex number. It's not like at the money vol just spiked to 33. I mean, I'm sure it spiked some, but the more dominant effect is simply rolling down to a lower strike where the vol was already higher.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 4:27 pm to Tiger JJ
I was off a bit on the "33" statement. It closed at 31.66 today, up 8.28 for the day.
Posted on 8/4/11 at 4:36 pm to Dr Rosenrosen
I really see absolutely no reason why it would continue to fall tomorrow, especially at this clip, other than purely momentum. Even if the unemployment numbers come in terrible, people are pre-conditioned to that now. I'm not saying it won't go down, I just don't see a basis of reasoning for it in the short term, so I wonder why people now have this feeling. Why do you think it will be down tomorrow?
Posted on 8/4/11 at 4:41 pm to kfizzle85
Seems like the story is Europe now.
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