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Set it and forget it investment? (20 yrs+)

Posted on 12/18/18 at 9:06 am
Posted by Kingpenm3
Xanadu
Member since Aug 2011
8958 posts
Posted on 12/18/18 at 9:06 am
I've been pretty disappointed with the target date funds (2045) where my retirement funds are going. Any suggestions for other long term options that I don't plan on touching for another 25-30 years? Should I put a percentage into just an index fund? TIA.

Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18887 posts
Posted on 12/18/18 at 9:22 am to
quote:

I've been pretty disappointed with the target date funds (2045) where my retirement funds are going. Any suggestions for other long term options that I don't plan on touching for another 25-30 years? Should I put a percentage into just an index fund? TIA.

I'm kind of amazed by all these posts lately complaining about mutual fund progress.

How long have you been in the market?
What's your rate of return over the past 5 years?
I'm assuming you're reinvesting dividends?

The only thing that I can find wrong with target dates are there ~35% exposure to international stocks, but just because the US has outperformed doesn't mean you don't need emerging markets, Europe, and Asia long term.

If you think you can do better try indexing. If you want to beat indexing, good luck.
Sector specific etfs can be good (VDE, VDC, VPU, VAW, etc.) but then you're trying to time the market.

TLDR; Switch from World to US stocks if you're unhappy. VTSAX
This post was edited on 12/18/18 at 9:24 am
Posted by Teddy Ruxpin
Member since Oct 2006
39553 posts
Posted on 12/18/18 at 9:31 am to
quote:

The only thing that I can find wrong with target dates are there ~35% exposure to international stocks, but just because the US has outperformed doesn't mean you don't need emerging markets, Europe, and Asia long term.


This is likely the source of the issue. No one remembers that before this recent period internationals outpaced the US.

Even on Bogleheads there is a lot of debate about international equities.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18887 posts
Posted on 12/18/18 at 10:05 am to
Cool comparison. That is a fairly significant ytd disparity when comparing enormous funds.

No need to fret though, Teddy is right about international equities. For fear of oversimplification, if you switch to all US right now, maybe the emerging markets and the rest of the world would have provided bolstered your portfolio instead of dragging it down.

It should all balance out over the long term. Rebalancing is probably a good thing once or twice a year, but making large changes between stocks, bonds, US, and global, is usually futile.
Posted by SouthMSReb
Member since Dec 2013
4412 posts
Posted on 12/18/18 at 12:27 pm to
I think it's a pretty damn good time to start buying into Chinese stocks. They are in a devastating market over there at the moment. It won't last forever.

Not saying to put it all in China equities, but it'd be a good time to start racking up some shares.

For the initial question, I'd seriously look into some REITS - specifically AMT, O, DLR.. those are proven steady performers and the dividends will be protected in your retirement account.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18887 posts
Posted on 12/18/18 at 12:30 pm to
quote:

For the initial question, I'd seriously look into some REITS - specifically AMT, O, DLR.. those are proven steady performers and the dividends will be protected in your retirement account.

I've been doing this as well, but CIM is my preference, though I like AMT and O.

Agreeing with your first point, it is a good time to buy VWO (Vanguard emerging markets etf).
Posted by Fat Bastard
coach, investor, gambler
Member since Mar 2009
72507 posts
Posted on 12/18/18 at 5:28 pm to
Target dates suck. Never been a fan of them

Do some research. Find new better funds. They’re out there.
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 12/18/18 at 6:09 pm to
quote:

Target dates suck
compared to what the majority of people are invested in, I would say this is a bit harsh.
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
20397 posts
Posted on 12/18/18 at 6:15 pm to
If you are 10 years or more away from retirement there is no reason to worry about your allocations. Target dates are fine but you pay extra for them.

It’s really not hard to do something like:
50% US large cap
10% US small cap
10% US mid cap
10% Europe
5% emerging market
5% international
10% bonds or whatever

Find someone like Vanguard, schwab, etc. that has their own ETFs or mutual funds and buy them through them as that saves you money. Save money where you can on fees and buying/ selling.

I mean that takes you 10 minutes and you are set for 40 years.

99% of the stock market is overthinking it.
This post was edited on 12/18/18 at 6:17 pm
Posted by athenslife101
Member since Feb 2013
18552 posts
Posted on 12/18/18 at 6:19 pm to
I look at emerging markets all day long. Foreign markets are a pain in the arse but I’ve never really seen hiccups due to market circumstances (not to say that doesn’t happen, I’ve just never seen it). More like on top of your initial investment, you have several further layers of operations to support you for your particular tastes. At least on the institutional level
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 12/18/18 at 6:46 pm to
Absolutely but paying 0.17% for market returns in a target date does not “suck”
Posted by Fat Bastard
coach, investor, gambler
Member since Mar 2009
72507 posts
Posted on 12/19/18 at 8:53 am to
Meh. Look I get most here can’t put together a 50 stock portfolio or manage that like a mutual fund. But if you cannot at least research and. pick mutual funds and have to instead rely on a target date fund...............well...........

They’re too conservative and not good allocations for me. Regardless of whatever expense ratio you’re paying. I can’t lazily invest like that. Not me. Maybe for average Jimmy’s and Joes.


quote:

Here’s the BIG problem. Target date funds, although easy, can sometimes eat away at your returns. Or stated just a bit more bluntly– They suck!


quote:

Target date funds were created to take away the hassle of having to research the mutual funds in your 401k and build and construct your own portfolio. But in my experience, taking the time to do the research and, essentially, build your own target date funds in your 401k, is a much better option. It’s this “a la carte” approach that can potentially give you much higher returns over your working life.


LINK
This post was edited on 12/19/18 at 9:28 am
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18887 posts
Posted on 12/19/18 at 9:27 am to
quote:

But if you cannot at least research and. pick mutual funds and have to instead rely on a target date fund...............well...........They’re too conservative and not good allocations for me.


I can agree with that, but the average person will never devote even 30 minutes to etf research over the course of their life.
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