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Started By
Message
re: Random Walk Down Wall Street
Posted on 7/31/09 at 10:57 am to amsterdam
Posted on 7/31/09 at 10:57 am to amsterdam
quote:
I beleive this is one of the basic premises when dealing with stocks as a whole or the overall market in general. The market is still undefeated against anyone who has claimed to have the better of it. It has humbled men over and over again who thought they had it figured out.
I don't think this proves "efficiency" it just proves unpredictability.
My opinion is that the market is fairly efficient of the really long-term, but that significant "inefficiencies" exist almost all the time which can be exploited.
The best strategy is to find as many asymmetric bets as you can. Or better yet - try to set things up as "head I win, tails I don't lose". ALWAYS be on the lookout for hidden and/or cheap optionality.
It sucks that most people are limited to trading just the public equity markets. The deals and activity that I've seen and been involved with over the past year are just so utterly superior to generic equity investing that it pisses me off continually that the average investor is shut out of them by law. Oh, it's OK for the "little guy" to borrow money to trade penny stocks. But "alternative investments" - why, oh no, he's in no way fit for that.
1
Posted on 7/31/09 at 12:53 pm to Tiger JJ
We are to take this as non-Amsterdam defined "alternative investments"? 
This post was edited on 7/31/09 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 7/31/09 at 1:00 pm to tirebiter
Sure.
Posted on 7/31/09 at 3:47 pm to tirebiter
quote:
We are to take this as non-Amsterdam defined "alternative investments"?
If you take the time to look it up, my take on alternative investments is the exact same viewpoint FINRA takes, fwiw.
Coming from JT's pov, I can see why he might view RE as traditional, but for the average, everyday investor its not.
No need to beat a dead horse. We can all agree to disagree
Posted on 7/31/09 at 3:48 pm to amsterdam
Posted on 7/31/09 at 3:53 pm to amsterdam
quote:
Coming from JT's pov, I can see why he might view RE as traditional, but for the average, everyday investor its not.
I don't necessarily view RE as "traditional". The specific argument you are referencing was about publicly traded REITs being "alternatives", and I stated very clearly and correctly that they are not. In fact, there's at least one REIT in the S and P 500 ( HCN). So, I guess your clients can't even buy and S&P index fund without special approval because that would be giving them a partial allocation to alternatives.
ETA: Here's the thread in question LINK
It was amusing to see that in a 5 page thread, the ONLY post that LSURussian made was a stalker post that insulted me.
This post was edited on 7/31/09 at 4:03 pm
Posted on 7/31/09 at 4:03 pm to Tiger JJ
Don't forget the REITs that don't trade on public exchanges (but are accessible by thousands of sales people?).
Posted on 7/31/09 at 4:29 pm to kfizzle85
Damn, I was just trying for a little humor. Don't beat the man up. Wells REITs, check out the commissions on those and good luck liquidating your position later.
Posted on 7/31/09 at 4:44 pm to tirebiter
I'm ancy. I've been moving furniture all day, none of which is mine. Ready to get crunk.
Posted on 7/31/09 at 5:33 pm to Tiger JJ
From what I gather we both agree that RE is not a traditional investment.
Your beef is that a publically traded REIT is traditional because its a stock traded on a public exchange.
I view RE as non traditional regardless of the type of ownership.
Like I said we can agree to disagree. I will concede that you have a point to argue with publically traded REITs. In all other cases RE should be viewed as non traditonal.
Oh, and congrats on your Seattle guide post making the front page.
Your beef is that a publically traded REIT is traditional because its a stock traded on a public exchange.
I view RE as non traditional regardless of the type of ownership.
Like I said we can agree to disagree. I will concede that you have a point to argue with publically traded REITs. In all other cases RE should be viewed as non traditonal.
Oh, and congrats on your Seattle guide post making the front page.
Posted on 7/31/09 at 5:42 pm to tirebiter
quote:
Damn, I was just trying for a little humor
In the post Milehigh doctrine era everybody plays nice
Posted on 7/31/09 at 5:44 pm to amsterdam
quote:
In the post Milehigh doctrine era everybody plays nice
And it's EXHAUSTING me!!!
Posted on 8/1/09 at 9:37 am to foshizzle
Value investing is the way to go (Discounted cash flow model and analysis). Just ask Warren Buffet. Problem is most people don't have the patience.
Posted on 8/2/09 at 11:33 am to kfizzle85
quote:
I'm ancy. I've been moving furniture all day, none of which is mine. Ready to get crunk.
Is "ancy" synonymous with "antsy"? Did you get your crunk on? I attended a UT function Saturday that was held at a microbrewery here in ATL with a UT alum friend. Man, those UT'ers love to bash UGA at every opportunity. The beer was purty dang good as was the slide show from Dr. Bass, a renowned forensic anthropologist of "Body Farm" notoriety---nothing about football, I was almost shocked. Then it was on to the chicken wing challenge and more beer on tap.
Posted on 8/2/09 at 12:06 pm to tirebiter
quote:
Is "ancy" synonymous with "antsy"?
Yep, that why it was mis-spelled, I was over antsy. Went out to eat, but I'm still suffering some ill effects from some kind of stupid ear infection, so I get stupid dizzy after literally one beer.
Worst thing ever, and I have no clue how long it will last for.Posted on 8/2/09 at 12:22 pm to kfizzle85
I got vertigo once from river rafting once, cruddy river water in the ears, that does suck. On the other hand, you are saving beer money.
Posted on 8/2/09 at 12:47 pm to tirebiter
Yeah, and it really discourages me from going out and getting plastered, so I can focus on getting this cpa done. It has a perverse positive side, but I can't even drink a beer when I eat dinner right now. 
ETA: Same thing applies for all caffeine. WTF MATE.
ETA: Same thing applies for all caffeine. WTF MATE.
This post was edited on 8/2/09 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 8/2/09 at 12:55 pm to kfizzle85
quote:At least you're a cheap date....
I get stupid dizzy after literally one beer.
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