Property Investing - Flooded homes in Central area?

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Take your emotions out of your investing or you gonna get fuuuuuuucked

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It's an added benefit, not a reason to invest.

If Comite Diversions Canal becomes a reality, the BFE in the Southern Comite and lower Amite Basins will definitely lower. So in a sense they may not ever flood as badly.

But if August of 2016 happens again, it will Flood. No way around an event like that.

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hawkeye007

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stay far away from this type of investment. The market for 130k redone flooded homes is super small. Oneal place in baton rouge took 4ft of water. Gutted homes went for 30-50k they now have over 20 homes for sale in that subdivision in the 130-150k price range and they are not selling. I live in Central and was lucky not to flood. The sub 150k housing market in Central is very small and not a super hot range.

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Or just let Zillow sell it?

I was about to buy one yesterday until I got the elevation certificate. It’s 2.5 feet below BFE. I decided to pass. Flood insurance for the buyer would be 3 grand a year. I don’t think I’d ever sell it.

Right, but they want too much for the house

I live in the central area and i am a mortgage loan officer . You are buying homes even if they flooded at the height of the market right now. The greater Baton Rouge market is a high priced market at the moment due to the lack of supply. The supply is picking up and the market is slowing down slightly. That is not the case in central the supply is still very low. The demand for homes in Central is new homes between 250-350k. My brother in law is selling a home in Wisteria Lakes for 375k for a 6 year old custom built home. His problem is the brand new subdivision across the street selling at 330-350k . His house is nicer, bigger but people are buying new right across the street. rent is high in central so a long play rental is a good idea. The quick fix and sell i think is a bad idea.

The ascension market is great . I don't due a lot of livingston parish but i know the markets are strong. Central and Ascension are the 2 best outside of BR markets right now. Homes that didn't flood are a personal taste item. I have had some customers who want touch them and customers who don't care. The flood insurance cost is the overall determination for most customers. I just had a deal fall through when the customer saw that the house he had a contract on was 4ft below base elevation. the flood insurance was 4k a year on a 190k house. Houses that are grandfathered in a the dangerous part. those homes will only see increases in already expensive flood insurance.

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ScottieP

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Beware of what you read on the Comite Diversion. The majority of the rain that fell in Aug 2016 was below the diversion. I've seen some reports that the diversion would have had minimum effect in Aug 2016.

Case in point.. I live off S Harrells Ferry about 1 mile from the Amite. The diversion would have lowered the peak water levels by 6 inches for the Aug 2016 flood.

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Scottie...did you just not read the rest of my post where I typed out...

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But if August of 2016 happens again, it will Flood. No way around an event like that.

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The Comite drainage impact to the lower Comite River Basin as well as the Amite River and its Basin-which are almost entirely located in Livingston and East Baton Rouge parishes-is ridiculously impactful.

As I said, August of 2016 is the sum of all fears. The perfect storm, literally. There is no plan or method of mitigation that prevents that event from causing devastation.

But Central, Live Oak, Northern Denham and South Baton Rouge flood because of the drainage issues that plague the area near the very end of the Comite Basin at the confluence of the Amite and Comite near the 190 Bridge over the confluence that leads to Baton Rouge.

This image should help. The Comite is on the Left. The Amite is on the Right. The Comite is a tributary but its basin and the Amite's include all of South Baton Rouge, LP, all the way up into Baker and Zachary.



When Comite's levels are elevated, it flows at a higher rate into the Amite as a tributary. This slows the flow rate and increases water surface elevations correspondingly as a result all the way up the Amite north towards Watson, etc.

This is a pic of the confluence from overhead flipped around compared to the 1st image. Now we are pointing towards I-12. The bridge is again Florida Boulevard running between Denham and South BR.



With the slower flow rates and increased elevations, this means water that would normally drain off from those areas has nowhere to go, or if it can get there, it can't get where it wants to go as quickly. When that happens, you experience flooding backing up into low-lying areas which-thanks to continued demand for housing in these areas-puts pressure on these low-lying yet developed areas that would have in the past functioned as a way to hold water during events before slowly letting it drain out. IE-FLOODED RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOODS.

If the project is implemented, most of the modeling done on H&H studies in the Southern part of East Baton Rouge Parish area-along with Flood Insurance Studies, their corresponding FIRMS, etc-would become outdated overnight. The hotspots in Southern Denham and the rest of LP, along with South Baton Rouge, Central all the way up past Zachary would need new engineering to account for the project's impact in lowering the BFE.

I'm not sure if your intent was to downplay the impact of the project or not, but it changes the cost of home ownership, takes pressure off zoning and land usage concerns, redefines future growth patterns across the 5-parish metro Baton Rouge area, impacts real estate trends, etc, etc etc. The impact of the project is really sort've difficult to put into context.

But no, it's not a panacea. It's not a cure-all. You're quite right. Which is what I stated in my post.

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When Comite's levels are elevated, it flows at a higher rate into the Amite as a tributary. This slows the flow rate and increases water surface elevations correspondingly as a result all the way up the Amite north towards Watson, etc.

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This is just not true. The Amite is the dominate river. When the Amite reaches moderately high levels it slows the flows of the Comite all the way up to just above Joor Rd. The Amite causes the Comite to go into backwater even before it gets close to 29ft. I'm not saying it reverses flow but it does slow it down.

Because of the backwater effect the diversons lowering of the river levels actually reduces with the increase magnitude of the event. I cant seem to find the report but I believe the diverson will lower the Comite River at Joor approx. 5 ft for a 10 yr event but only 3.5 ft for a 100 year. Aug 2016 was said to be close to a 500yr event so that number would have been reduced further. I'd have to look up what a10 year event on the Comite at Joor is but Id be willing to bet no one in Central floods during a 10 year event.

As for areas on the Amite near Denham and in lower EBR (below I-12) the diversion will have little impact on water levels. About 1.5 ft and 0.75ft respectively for any sized event.

I'm not against the diverson if they can get it rolling but I believe the impact is oversold to many people who have been paying taxes for its construction for over 10 years.