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Started By
Message
Predict the Dow Jones’ bottom
Posted on 5/20/22 at 11:44 am
Posted on 5/20/22 at 11:44 am
I’m thinking we hit around 26K(ish) before the year is up.
18
Posted on 5/20/22 at 11:45 am to Eli Goldfinger
24ish before we start bouncing back. Not even the Covid bottom.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 11:47 am to Eli Goldfinger
I don't know about the number, but I think it will hit bottom just before the midterm elections with a boost afterward and in January with the new Congress.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 11:47 am to DaTruth7
We already did this guy
Posted on 5/20/22 at 11:55 am to ThermoDynamicTiger
Yep
I started a thread may 11
Here’s what I predicted then
I call it-
Nasd- 10,900
S&P 3,800
Dow 29,400
I started a thread may 11
Here’s what I predicted then
I call it-
Nasd- 10,900
S&P 3,800
Dow 29,400
Posted on 5/20/22 at 11:58 am to SlidellCajun
You don't think breaking 30 causes a drop below 29k?
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:03 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
midterm elections
Forward looking market. It’ll move months ahead of any news you think is coming.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:04 pm to Eli Goldfinger
I can't believe we are actually about to go below 30k but I think it's happening
My guess is 28k the bottom
My guess is 28k the bottom
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:05 pm to DaTruth7
quote:
You don't think breaking 30 causes a drop below 29k?
Why wouldn't breaking 29k lead to breaking 28k, and so on?
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:06 pm to DaTruth7
We're getting close to capitulation here. I think a hard break below 30k and there is no support at all. 26.5k?
Probably higher, but I don't know. The scary thing is the notion these weaknesses are semi-permanent. The COVID crash had a huge bounce back. There was some built-in resilience. There was some confidence in the government response (at least through the Summer).
I don't think we have that here. I think we're down for some weeks/months until something pops (gas prices, break in inflation, resolution of Russia-Ukraine), otherwise, we'll see what happens with the mid-terms.
Probably higher, but I don't know. The scary thing is the notion these weaknesses are semi-permanent. The COVID crash had a huge bounce back. There was some built-in resilience. There was some confidence in the government response (at least through the Summer).
I don't think we have that here. I think we're down for some weeks/months until something pops (gas prices, break in inflation, resolution of Russia-Ukraine), otherwise, we'll see what happens with the mid-terms.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:09 pm to Ace Midnight
The need to raise rates is going to bring it below 30 by itself. We are basically there. The drop after that, who knows.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:14 pm to DaTruth7
quote:
The need to raise rates is going to bring it below 30 by itself.
Yeah, they wisely telegraphed that so I do think that is largely priced in now. At least 2 more .5 bumps are baked in for this year (and it could end up being more). Unprecedented, but most will agree that rate increases are well overdue.
The effect on the housing and retail markets will be the thing to watch as we go forward. Inflation alone should tamp down consumer spending. Increased interest rates should put the brakes on excess spending on either retail or housing.
But, frankly, they can raise rates all they want and it will do little until the energy prices get under control. And the only thing that can do that is, really, an increase in supply.
This post was edited on 5/20/22 at 12:15 pm
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:32 pm to Eli Goldfinger
25,000
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:35 pm to sawtooth
Seems like it needs to get close to there to right the ship. No real hard analysis. It was just way too hot after all the Covid stimulus.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:37 pm to Eli Goldfinger
When dat bank account gets very low.
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:54 pm to Eli Goldfinger
Under 5k. Might cease to exist. The nation is about to implode and we have a govt working to destroy it.
I predict we end up with massive food and gas shortages, rolling blackouts, businesses closing all over. People will riot. War breaks out and cities burn. Dollar will be worthless. Govt sends in military and the people fight back, nation may actually split up.
The days of kicking the can down the road are over. This isn’t the crash right now. This is the buildup to it. The crash comes this fall. I think America as we know it is almost over, who knows what it will be when it’s over. Could be better or worse depending on who wins control
I predict we end up with massive food and gas shortages, rolling blackouts, businesses closing all over. People will riot. War breaks out and cities burn. Dollar will be worthless. Govt sends in military and the people fight back, nation may actually split up.
The days of kicking the can down the road are over. This isn’t the crash right now. This is the buildup to it. The crash comes this fall. I think America as we know it is almost over, who knows what it will be when it’s over. Could be better or worse depending on who wins control
Posted on 5/20/22 at 12:56 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
But, frankly, they can raise rates all they want and it will do little until the energy prices get under control. And the only thing that can do that is, really, an increase in supply.
And govt won’t do that. Not under Biden. They’ll keep canceling leases and shuttering refineries.
We won’t see any relief until 2024 at best, if things don’t burn down completely before then
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:03 pm to Eli Goldfinger
I’m thinking 19k
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:04 pm to deltaland
quote:This seems like the most likely thing to happen in the next 3 months.
Under 5k. Might cease to exist. The nation is about to implode and we have a govt working to destroy it. I predict we end up with massive food and gas shortages, rolling blackouts, businesses closing all over. People will riot. War breaks out and cities burn. Dollar will be worthless. Govt sends in military and the people fight back, nation may actually split up. The days of kicking the can down the road are over. This isn’t the crash right now. This is the buildup to it. The crash comes this fall. I think America as we know it is almost over, who knows what it will be when it’s over. Could be better or worse depending on who wins control
Posted on 5/20/22 at 1:09 pm to deltaland
quote:
Under 5k. Might cease to exist. The nation is about to implode and we have a govt working to destroy it.
I predict we end up with massive food and gas shortages, rolling blackouts, businesses closing all over. People will riot. War breaks out and cities burn. Dollar will be worthless. Govt sends in military and the people fight back, nation may actually split up.
The days of kicking the can down the road are over. This isn’t the crash right now. This is the buildup to it. The crash comes this fall. I think America as we know it is almost over, who knows what it will be when it’s over. Could be better or worse depending on who wins control
Jesus, some of you need to turn off the cable news, stop reading the fake Facebook articles your idiot friends send you and get some fresh air.
Literally none of that will happen.
This post was edited on 5/20/22 at 1:10 pm
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