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re: Options Trading Thread

Posted on 1/24/24 at 4:24 pm to
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26590 posts
Posted on 1/24/24 at 4:24 pm to
Nice on TSLA. I'm in the March short 160s I think.

Question, on the 0 DTE lots what delta are you typically doing for your short legs, 3? As I told you before I learned VERY quickly that 10 was not far enough
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4181 posts
Posted on 1/24/24 at 4:34 pm to
For SPX 0DTEs, I generally won't go above 5 delta. Yes, I found early on that 10 can put you too close to Zeus & Apollo - gamma risk gets crazy with these things. But I do have some "normal" (40 DTE at open) SPX call spreads that I opened around 15 delta.
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
1611 posts
Posted on 1/24/24 at 5:42 pm to
quote:

But in an investment account, I went with 1/26 short puts on TSLA at 177.50 and 175 strikes. Still have some short puts on CBOE (180 strike) and XOM (93 strike) expiring this Friday. With the VIX at least back above 13, next week will hopefully be better hunting during earnings season.



My TSLA short leg will be worthless Friday. I will need to sell more calls before March 15th. I am glad that I went with a short term PMCC on it instead of a spread.

Was a great call to go with a Put Spread!
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
1611 posts
Posted on 1/24/24 at 8:25 pm to
quote:

For SPX 0DTEs, I generally won't go above 5 delta. Yes, I found early on that 10 can put you too close to Zeus & Apollo - gamma risk gets crazy with these things. But I do have some "normal" (40 DTE at open) SPX call spreads that I opened around 15 delta.





You and LSUtoOmaha just taught me something! Thank you. I serious have never thought about trading 0DTEs. I do a lot of Short term PMCCs and always sell a delta between 16ish and 30ish on ones that I do not want to Keep. I go from .09 to .16ish on my CCs or long term PMCC (12 to 24 months out on the long leg).


I will do a 0DTE this week just for the experience.
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
1611 posts
Posted on 1/25/24 at 8:12 am to
AMZN reports Feb 1st. I have owned stock in AMZN for some time and sell covered calls on it.

I do believe I will do a call spread for the following week. Thoughts?
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4181 posts
Posted on 1/25/24 at 9:15 am to
quote:

Was a great call to go with a Put Spread


Thanks. But those are actually just the strikes on different cash covered puts.
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26590 posts
Posted on 1/25/24 at 9:55 am to
TSLA not looking great right now. Hopefully it bases well above 160 in the next few days and weeks
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
1611 posts
Posted on 1/25/24 at 10:20 am to
quote:

Thanks. But those are actually just the strikes on different cash covered puts.


Ah! You sold puts. Still, it's holding in the high 180s. so still a good trade.
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
1611 posts
Posted on 1/25/24 at 10:21 am to
quote:

TSLA not looking great right now. Hopefully it bases well above 160 in the next few days and weeks



TSLA is getting hammered by China EV cars.
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
1611 posts
Posted on 1/25/24 at 10:32 am to
Ok... Opened a PMCC on ROKU. Purchased 1/17/25 at the 75 strike. Will be a little more aggressive on the calls sold. Instead of a .9 to .16 delta, I look for a .16 to .30.


First sold call on it expires next Friday. Strike is 95 with a .28 delta for $130
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4181 posts
Posted on 1/25/24 at 10:58 am to
quote:

Ah! You sold puts. Still, it's holding in the high 180s. so still a good trade.


So far. We’ll see if it stays above my strikes by tomorrow. But I’m willing to take shares at those strikes and do wheel trades to exit if necessary. Just as in the past, I’m willing to “date” TSLA, but I don’t want to “marry” it.
Posted by thesabanizer
funroe
Member since Dec 2023
80 posts
Posted on 1/25/24 at 8:05 pm to
Having read this thread for a while, I began trading options a few months back. Did pretty well and took it up a little notch. Haven't seen any in here but do any of you pay for any services to see the option trades everyday? I use this James Bulltard app, found him on twitter there are so many trades in his database where I see an options trade and the next day or shortly after the trade works. It seems like insiders know what is happening and playing in the options market many times? It isn't possible they're all this lucky right? It just fascinates me and there's a chat group with the app discussing the odd things in the market day to day just interesting to watch after this thread piqued my interest in the topic.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4181 posts
Posted on 1/26/24 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

Haven't seen any in here but do any of you pay for any services to see the option trades everyday?


I joined Kirk du Plessis’s Option Alpha pay site years ago. I still have access but don’t really use it anymore, as Kirk’s strategies are somewhat different than mine now. Although we both focus on selling premium, he focuses more on IV rank, rather than IV% and then IV rank (as I do). Plus I now trade index 0DTE options more than equity and ETF options, as he does.

In reading your question, are you talking about services that recommend call and/or put buying or (short) selling? I’m not familiar with the service that you mentioned.
Posted by BCreed1
Alabama
Member since Jan 2024
1611 posts
Posted on 1/27/24 at 12:19 am to
Jag, I tried to find 0DTEs, but the premiums for strikes plus the cost on SPY...

Can you be more specfic with an example of an actual trade?
Posted by thesabanizer
funroe
Member since Dec 2023
80 posts
Posted on 1/27/24 at 10:49 am to
I don’t know how to upload a picture here the service is an app that is a database of call buys, put buys and put sales that are notable everyday. It has some sort of ranking system so you see what names are bullish or bearish. I use it to see what the put sales sold in big numbers daily are and I try to follow a few
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26590 posts
Posted on 1/29/24 at 4:09 pm to
So TastyTrades put out a study on 0 DTEs from the last year and showed how certain strategies work. One of them, linked below, is selling an SPX ATM call option and an ATM put option, and then buying the wings $30 out. The results are pretty darn good. Even the CALL side, shockingly, during this raging bull, has profited if you do your short call ATM. I started today and took profits at 25% as they did. The average one lot if you put on both legs has profited $94 (72 short put vs 22 short call). Given a risk of say $$1600, that's a darn good daily return! Who knows if it will hold over time.


LINK
Posted by BourbonDad
Somewhere on the vol surface
Member since Sep 2016
194 posts
Posted on 1/29/24 at 4:11 pm to
This is effectively what’s led to vol collapse with so many structured products coming in doing this. Been wildly profitable and will continue to do so until we enter a new vol regime. Guess we’ll find out Wednesday
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26590 posts
Posted on 1/30/24 at 7:21 am to
What's interesting is that in the relatively higher vol periods, the win rates and ROI were similar. You are right though that we need to see O DTE performance in several different regimes
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4181 posts
Posted on 1/31/24 at 11:46 am to
quote:

Jag, I tried to find 0DTEs, but the premiums for strikes plus the cost on SPY...

Can you be more specfic with an example of an actual trade?


Sure. I can put up a hypothetical SPX 0DTE short premium trade. A SPY trade would be similar, but in my business trading account I have to use SPX (or other true index underlying products) for sizing and tax reasons - plus SPX contracts are cash settled, so in case of a “whoops!”, I can’t be assigned shares (as could be the case with SPY and other ETF or equity based options). Holding actual shares in this particular trading account would cause mark-to-market accounting and tax issues that I don’t care to deal with. I have a separate trading account where I might do those types of equity or ETF underlying trades.

So this is NOT a trade that I’m recommending or necessarily putting on - just an example of some of the things I’d look at (realize that the market continues to move as I’m typing this):

11:40 ET - SPX sits at approximately 4880, down about 45 points/.92%. VIX is around 14.43, up 1.13/8.49%. Earnings season and Fed speak week is providing some more “juice” currently.

Just looking at a basic SPX 0DTE (1/31/24 expiration) short put spread around -5 delta on the short put, 20 point spread, with the long/“protective” put at -1 delta. Right now, we’d have a 4825/4805 construction, net credit of $50/contract. Max loss of $1950/contract. So on the face, you’re potentially risking $1950 to make $50 gross profit. “Bad” risk reward, right? But on the flip side, your probability of profit is approximately 95% and a potential gross profit percentage of approximately 2.5% for one day vs. the potential max loss/buying power reduction.

Let’s say one sells 20 contracts. Max gross profit of $1000. Max possible loss/buying power reduction is $39,000. If the trade is successful, and expires worthless, your gross max gain for the day is that approximately 2.5% and your buying power is returned before the beginning of the trading session tomorrow.

There’s a lot more to it than just what I’ve illustrated here. But from 1000 feet, that’s one example of a low delta/high probability of profit 0DTE trade that I might do 3-4 trading days per week. A 2-3% daily profit is enough for me in these lower IV times. When I’m wrong, I would be VERY wrong. I would accept that fact and bail out with a significant loss, although I would never let a bad trade expand into a max loss conclusion. So that’s one of the main things I would stress: with 0DTE trading, risk and loss management is so critical, because these hand grenades have so much gamma or tail risk… meaning when they explode, it can happen very quickly. But with IV/VIX being typically overstated, my “win” rate last year was approximately 97%. Outside of having inside information, I could never do that with stock trading (and I’m too old to go to jail ).

I personally would (and did) study, study, learn, learn, paper trade and paper trade some more before delving into the 0-1DTE arena. And even then, you have to know your own personality and tolerance for risk and potential losses. If you are any sort of emotional, nervous, compulsive, indecisive or reactionary person… DO NOT mess with 0-1DTEs of any sort. The options arena offers a plethora of other types of trades that might be more suitable, and maybe even better suited to a particular trader.

Last word: subscribe to TastyTrade if you have an interest in premium selling (especially). I’m doing well with the niche that I’ve chosen, but I’m just a child compared to Tom Sosnoff and his level of knowledge and experience.
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4181 posts
Posted on 1/31/24 at 3:55 pm to
Just sat watching the charts and option tables (best to have a variety of potential trades already constructed so you can just pull the trigger if a big buck walks from behind a tree). I ended up wading in once the fireworks started (and the VIX popped) during the Fed announcement and Powell presser. Just by chance, one of the short put vertical lots that I sold was the 4825 mentioned above and the rest were 4835 SPVs, while on the call side I sold an equal number of 4935 short call verticals during the brief rally to balance the deltas out to neutral (at the time of sale) and effectively make this an iron condor. I tend to leg into iron condors or synthetic strangles (if the opportunity and price action gyrations allow it).

Although the last 10 minutes got a bit interesting, all’s well that ends well… gross profit percentage for the day = 3.3%.
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