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re: Options Trading Thread
Posted on 5/17/23 at 6:31 pm to Jag_Warrior
Posted on 5/17/23 at 6:31 pm to Jag_Warrior
Jag, what is the minimum IV you're willing to sell SPX 30/45 dte on
2
Posted on 5/17/23 at 8:20 pm to LSUtoOmaha
Sold 2 puts on baba for next week at the 83 strike.
It's a price I am willing to enter it at.
It's a price I am willing to enter it at.
Posted on 5/17/23 at 8:28 pm to Jjdoc
Sounds like a good play. With earnings coming out tomorrow before the bell, decent IV now, decent premium at about the 17 delta and you’re OK with owning it at 83 if it hits your strike. Do you plan on selling calls against it or just content to hold it for awhile?
Posted on 5/17/23 at 9:18 pm to Jag_Warrior
I will sell calls. It's temping to keep them.
Maybe I sell on Wednesday the samenweek calls... to reduce exposure. Maybe even Thursday. Less premium but that time decay.... surfing the wave... lol.
Maybe I sell on Wednesday the samenweek calls... to reduce exposure. Maybe even Thursday. Less premium but that time decay.... surfing the wave... lol.
Posted on 5/17/23 at 9:19 pm to Jag_Warrior
Did you check out SOXL?
Posted on 5/17/23 at 9:31 pm to Jjdoc
quote:Too much risk for me and most here if I had to guess.
Did you check out SOXL?
Posted on 5/17/23 at 9:35 pm to Jjdoc
Yes, but leveraged products aren’t really in my wheelhouse. Thanks though.
Posted on 5/17/23 at 9:54 pm to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
Jag, what is the minimum IV you're willing to sell SPX 30/45 dte on
I’m either going to show my age, yours or both.
Remember the lyrics from the old Huey Lewis and the News song, “Working for a Living”? I’m takin’ what they’re givin’, cause I’m workin’ for a livin’. Right now we’re stuck between 15-20 on the VIX, so I’m just dealing with it on the 45DTEs and staying relatively small. Per our Sensei (
), Tom Sosnoff, rather than seeking an ideal IV level, I always trade (kinda have to now), but for my 45 +/- DTE trades I follow the TastyTrade allocation rules: VIX between 10-15 / 25% max account allocation
VIX between 15-20 / 30% max account allocation
VIX between 20-30 / 35% max account allocation
VIX between 30-40 / 40% max account allocation
VIX greater than 40 / 50% max account allocation
Posted on 5/18/23 at 10:41 am to Jag_Warrior
A sell off seems to be gaining steam in Consumer Staples as tech is exploding again. KO, MCD, GIS
I like the risk/reward of a skewed 29 day iron fly to the downside.
Here's an example of what I'm talking about with General Mills, where I've already made money twice recently on Put Debit Spreads. I think it has peaked after decent earnings from $80 to $90. So, here's the Iron Fly:
I like the risk/reward of a skewed 29 day iron fly to the downside.
Here's an example of what I'm talking about with General Mills, where I've already made money twice recently on Put Debit Spreads. I think it has peaked after decent earnings from $80 to $90. So, here's the Iron Fly:
Posted on 5/18/23 at 7:28 pm to bayoubengals88
Going net long on a stock that only has 18% IV, with $213 max profit and only $37 max loss. I’m not up on long options strategies, but to me, it looks good. The other guys on here can speak to this with more knowledge and experience than I have on net longs/debit trades though.
Only question I have is on that screen shot, what does the “Expected Profit and Loss” -$22.00 represent? Is that what Tasty and ToS represent as probability of profit (POP)?
Only question I have is on that screen shot, what does the “Expected Profit and Loss” -$22.00 represent? Is that what Tasty and ToS represent as probability of profit (POP)?
Posted on 5/18/23 at 7:49 pm to Jag_Warrior
Might be a dumb question, but am I net long if I receive a credit for opening the trade?
The expected loss moves with that line on the graphic. It was just showing that if GIS stayed at 89.95 I’d lose $22.
It finished the day at 88.50 so just $1 away from max profit now.
If it gets to that area earlier than expected I’ll probably just take the small gains and move on.
I probably went too far out with this particular trade. I’m still very much learning what kinds of strategies I like and don’t like.
The expected loss moves with that line on the graphic. It was just showing that if GIS stayed at 89.95 I’d lose $22.
It finished the day at 88.50 so just $1 away from max profit now.
If it gets to that area earlier than expected I’ll probably just take the small gains and move on.
I probably went too far out with this particular trade. I’m still very much learning what kinds of strategies I like and don’t like.
Posted on 5/18/23 at 10:20 pm to bayoubengals88
If you receive a credit, it’s more likely that you’re net short or possibly neutral. Usually debit trades produce net long positions. But with calendars, inversions, etc., that may not always be true. I should have worded that post better.
And hey, no such thing as a dumb question, especially with options. With the different types of option structures and strategies, any question is a good question.
I wasn’t pulling your leg before. I think that you’ve definitely picked up on this and you obviously have a passion for it. As you build your account and get comfortable with strategies that suit your style, you’ll almost feel guilty telling your friends about the $ or percentage gains you’re making. I mean, buy a stock and you basically have no better than a 50/50 shot of being directionally correct. But we can be directionally wrong 10 days in a row and still make money… as long as we get the range right.
And hey, no such thing as a dumb question, especially with options. With the different types of option structures and strategies, any question is a good question.
I wasn’t pulling your leg before. I think that you’ve definitely picked up on this and you obviously have a passion for it. As you build your account and get comfortable with strategies that suit your style, you’ll almost feel guilty telling your friends about the $ or percentage gains you’re making. I mean, buy a stock and you basically have no better than a 50/50 shot of being directionally correct. But we can be directionally wrong 10 days in a row and still make money… as long as we get the range right.
This post was edited on 5/18/23 at 10:24 pm
Posted on 5/19/23 at 8:35 am to Jag_Warrior
LOL>... BABA getting CLOSE that 83 strike!
Posted on 5/19/23 at 11:02 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Long IC on FL?
Looks like that would have been a major winner. FL is being destroyed today because of weak earnings and guidance. It’s down over 27% right now. Did you do a long IC on FL?
Posted on 5/20/23 at 8:12 am to Jag_Warrior
quote:No I did not. A good idea wasted
Did you do a long IC on FL?
Posted on 5/20/23 at 8:14 am to Jag_Warrior
quote:
As you build your account and get comfortable with strategies that suit your style, you’ll almost feel guilty telling your friends about the $ or percentage gains you’re making.
Did the Doberman get you this week with that wild movement led by QQQ?
I was short the Q’s but so was Sosnoff
Posted on 5/20/23 at 8:59 am to Jag_Warrior
Thanks Jag, that VIX range allocation is really helpful
Posted on 5/20/23 at 10:47 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Did the Doberman get you this week with that wild movement led by QQQ? I was short the Q’s but so was Sosnoff
I think Thatguy had a long call position on QQQ. Hopefully he’ll update us when he gets time. Were you able to get out of the QQQ trade OK, or is the trade still alive?
Zeus and Apollo didn’t get me this week.
I haven’t had a losing trade on SPX options since early March, so “sequence of returns” says that I’m long overdue for a smack. 
But if I’d had syn.strangles/ICs on SPX when that rip rally happened on Thursday(?), that one would have definitely gotten me on the short call side. I traded SPX options with different strategies all week. I happened to have only short put spreads on that day. The way the S&P has stayed so strong in the face of this debt ceiling battle has really surprised me. Because of short puts, I did get tagged with DIS (@ 95) and PYPL (@ 67) shares last week though. I’m not too bothered by DIS, but I’m not thrilled to be long PYPL shares. I had some short puts on TSLA, LAC and IBM and short calls on LAZR and RIOT that all expired worthless yesterday. Overall, a very good week.
Posted on 5/20/23 at 11:33 am to LSUtoOmaha
quote:
Thanks Jag, that VIX range allocation is really helpful
Yep. I’ve been using those guidelines faithfully. The temptation is to go heavy when vol. is low. I’ve been tempted to double the number of SPX contracts sold because the range has been so tight lately. But the probability of the VIX reverting to the mean (suddenly!) says that’s a painful way to get unexpectedly gut punched. So I’ve followed “the rules”.
What did you get up to this week? Is the Trade Machine still working well for you?
Posted on 5/21/23 at 7:03 pm to Jag_Warrior
Actually, Trade Machine surprisingly did NOT work for me. I made 45 trades over a few months, about $40,000 total capital risked, and lost about $1,000 (so -1 "unit" or so). I'm going to review the spreadsheet and look at what I could tweak, but I think the main thing is to take fewer, higher quality trades.
Last weeek though I just bought common stock.
Last weeek though I just bought common stock.
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