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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 10/12/25 at 1:05 pm to BottomlandBrew
Posted on 10/12/25 at 1:05 pm to BottomlandBrew
And another postmortem.
quote:
While we cannot definitively prove coordination, the evidence creates reasonable suspicion. The precision, timing, venue-specificity, and profit patterns align too perfectly with what a coordinated attack would look like.
Whether through brilliant opportunism or deliberate planning, someone turned Binance's transparency into vulnerability and extracted nearly a billion dollars in the process.
The crypto industry must now grapple with an uncomfortable question: In our interconnected, 24/7 markets, has transparency itself become a weapon that sophisticated actors can wield?
Until we have definitive answers, traders should assume that similar vulnerabilities exist across all exchanges. The October 10-11 event may have been many things, but one thing it wasn't was random.
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Posted on 10/13/25 at 8:23 am to BottomlandBrew
Btc trading like a complete dog. Everyone has moved on to all alts and leverage for the rest of the year. Crypto community going to crypto I guess.
This post was edited on 10/13/25 at 10:15 am
Posted on 10/13/25 at 1:30 pm to beaverfever
While I agree with you, I think something everyone should keep in mind is at any point Trump could tweet about the US buying BTC or taking a harder look, whatever it may be. When/if that happens BTC will be 175k before any of us have time to buy it.
Posted on 10/14/25 at 5:09 pm to thatguy777
You could about feel the trading volume under btc today. It was skipping as it moved along the chart. There is some serious tension that wants to be let out. Hope it’s in our favor.
Posted on 10/17/25 at 10:08 am to beaverfever
Not looking good. The markets are getting crushed.
Very bad timing for the tariff sell off, it may have actually killed the bull run.
The only silver lining here is the fed starting QE. It’s possible the markets are being manipulated for one last big dip before the one last big run Q1/Q2 2026.
Dropping below 100k on BTC here would make me very sad.
The thought here is that the long wick from 10/10 would get filled as a re-test. We need to close above 102-104.
Very bad timing for the tariff sell off, it may have actually killed the bull run.
The only silver lining here is the fed starting QE. It’s possible the markets are being manipulated for one last big dip before the one last big run Q1/Q2 2026.
Dropping below 100k on BTC here would make me very sad.
The thought here is that the long wick from 10/10 would get filled as a re-test. We need to close above 102-104.
This post was edited on 10/17/25 at 10:11 am
Posted on 10/19/25 at 10:07 pm to Hateradedrink
I flipped bullish on Friday and I'm ready to roll. The marginal retail trader (us) just doesn’t move the needle anymore. Most have sold and sellers will get exhausted soon. It’s kind of depressing but it will pay off for those that hold the line.
We might have to shake off another few weeks with liquidity dragging but we’re headed higher. We’re going to break through cycle theory and start a bull run for the ages when the fed gets on board.
We might have to shake off another few weeks with liquidity dragging but we’re headed higher. We’re going to break through cycle theory and start a bull run for the ages when the fed gets on board.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 9:12 am to beaverfever
Haven't shared my thoughts in a bit, so here's an updated take on Bitcoin.
In the short term, BTC remains wildly unpredictable.
It wouldn't shock me if we saw a plunge next month amid ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, like the strengthening gold market but many people think the capital rotation back into btc has already started (i don't have an opinion on this)
On the flip side, a surge to $140,000 isn't out of the question either, especially if ETF inflows continue at their blistering pace or if we get favorable rate cuts.
Long term - onchain metrics paint a clear picture: Veteran holders who've been in the game for 10+ years are cashing out substantial gains at record rates.
For instance, longerm holder supply has dropped by over 300,000 BTC since June, with daily realized profits hitting $1.7 billion recently as older coins flood back into circulation.
(this also means there will never be a "supply shock")
The average coin age is rising, signaling this isn't panic selling but strategic profit-taking from early adopters finally able to exit.
Sure, it's a bit annying to watch these OGs ride off into the sunset, but I get the rationale the market's maturity means they can unload large stacks without tanking the price, thanks to deeper liquidity from institutions and retail alike.
This redistribution is actually super bullish over time: As BTC moves from concentrated whale wallets to more diverse holders (including TradFi scooping up supply), it reduces single-point risks and promotes price stability.
The elephant in the room is the 4 year cycle. Do we finally break the 4 year cycle this year or will history repeat itself? I don't think we will have an answer to that question until at least June of next year.
If the 4 year cycles are over for Bitcoin (which i think they are) then that means it is up only.
In the short term, BTC remains wildly unpredictable.
It wouldn't shock me if we saw a plunge next month amid ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, like the strengthening gold market but many people think the capital rotation back into btc has already started (i don't have an opinion on this)
On the flip side, a surge to $140,000 isn't out of the question either, especially if ETF inflows continue at their blistering pace or if we get favorable rate cuts.
Long term - onchain metrics paint a clear picture: Veteran holders who've been in the game for 10+ years are cashing out substantial gains at record rates.
For instance, longerm holder supply has dropped by over 300,000 BTC since June, with daily realized profits hitting $1.7 billion recently as older coins flood back into circulation.
(this also means there will never be a "supply shock")
The average coin age is rising, signaling this isn't panic selling but strategic profit-taking from early adopters finally able to exit.
Sure, it's a bit annying to watch these OGs ride off into the sunset, but I get the rationale the market's maturity means they can unload large stacks without tanking the price, thanks to deeper liquidity from institutions and retail alike.
This redistribution is actually super bullish over time: As BTC moves from concentrated whale wallets to more diverse holders (including TradFi scooping up supply), it reduces single-point risks and promotes price stability.
The elephant in the room is the 4 year cycle. Do we finally break the 4 year cycle this year or will history repeat itself? I don't think we will have an answer to that question until at least June of next year.
If the 4 year cycles are over for Bitcoin (which i think they are) then that means it is up only.
Posted on 10/20/25 at 9:44 am to I Love Bama
I agree with you and beaverfever. I'm pretty sure the 4 year cycles are done. Also do like it that whales are diluting their holdings at the expense of short/mid term gains.
The only slight disagreement is the comment on Supply Shock. I think we will see a supply side shock at some point.
Here's the latest AI response on exchange balances...
"Exchange balances for Bitcoin have plunged to a six-year, four-month low, signaling growing investor accumulation. Since the start of October, roughly 45,000 BTC—worth over $4.81 billion—has been withdrawn from exchanges."
The only slight disagreement is the comment on Supply Shock. I think we will see a supply side shock at some point.
Here's the latest AI response on exchange balances...
"Exchange balances for Bitcoin have plunged to a six-year, four-month low, signaling growing investor accumulation. Since the start of October, roughly 45,000 BTC—worth over $4.81 billion—has been withdrawn from exchanges."
Posted on 10/20/25 at 8:58 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
This redistribution is actually super bullish over time: As BTC moves from concentrated whale wallets to more diverse holders (including TradFi scooping up supply), it reduces single-point risks and promotes price stability
I agree with most of this. This went from a seriously threatening event to a healthy leverage shakeout. The double bounce from 102-104 means buyers still have a lot of faith.
For the 4 year cycle, it won’t be “dead” until we get to Q2 2026 and no real pivot of capital. COVID and the FED may have thrown everything off.
What everyone thought was a “4 year cycle” may have just been a QE/QT cycle….and QT is just now winding down.
If some major alts haven’t breached their 2021/2022 ATHs by Feb/Mar 2026, it’s probably donezo.
This post was edited on 10/20/25 at 9:00 pm
Posted on 10/20/25 at 9:02 pm to beaverfever
quote:
We might have to shake off another few weeks with liquidity dragging but we’re headed higher. We’re going to break through cycle theory and start a bull run for the ages when the fed gets on board.
I’m really interested to see what happens when QE starts.
Posted on 10/21/25 at 6:05 am to I Love Bama
quote:And the new holders are normies. They just buy shite snd leave it there. I got my sister into IBIT and she’s liked it obviously. I thought “oh she’s gonna panic” and I realized I was projecting a bit. The average person just looks at the balance once a month and if it heads in right direction more often than not, they just leave it. The new holders aren’t staring at charts and reading about the fed all day. It’s conviction through emotional distance.
This redistribution is actually super bullish over time: As BTC moves from concentrated whale wallets to more diverse holders (including TradFi scooping up supply), it reduces single-point risks and promotes price stability.
You start getting millions of coins that are owned passively like that and the circulating float just falls off a cliff. This taps in to btc’s reflexivity and on and on we go.
This post was edited on 10/21/25 at 6:07 am
Posted on 10/21/25 at 10:28 am to beaverfever
The corn is hostile today.
Posted on 10/21/25 at 11:33 am to beaverfever
Profits from gold and silver going into crypto today?
Posted on 10/21/25 at 12:04 pm to BottomlandBrew
I closed silver yesterday. I closed short term long BTC trades (volatility). Not sure when to plunge more capital into long BTC physical.
This post was edited on 10/21/25 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 10/21/25 at 12:34 pm to Iowa Golfer
We’re almost exactly at the Power Law trend. I’m trying to buy around PL or under. If I could be disciplined with it, I think it would be a killer framework.
Posted on 10/21/25 at 12:38 pm to BottomlandBrew
quote:I think the trader pool is definitely getting more mixed with all three of these. When two have RSIs at 97 and one is at 40, pretty easy call. It felt like something flipped Friday. Then yesterday gold went parabolic again (3%+ up in 2/3 sessions) but didn’t convincingly clear last week’s high. I am not a technical trader but that feels like the makings for a local top.
Profits from gold and silver going into crypto today?
This post was edited on 10/21/25 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 10/22/25 at 8:07 am to beaverfever
quote:
We’re almost exactly at the Power Law trend.
I'm still not a real believer in the power law but its hard to argue with it so far. Way better than stock to flow
Posted on 10/22/25 at 5:19 pm to I Love Bama
The BTCD chart really might be the best chart for tracking liquidity. When you see a sharp dip, you probably want to start saving cash. When it starts climbing aggressively again, you’re probably good to start deploying cash.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 12:02 pm to beaverfever
Trump making an announcement today and a bunch of 40x leverage shorts appeared for btc. Lmao.
Posted on 10/23/25 at 1:16 pm to beaverfever
quote:That's the exact opposite of my strategy. I buy incrementally throughout Bitcoin dips and protracted deeper pullbacks. I sell incrementally throughout price appreciation and recoveries/uptrends. That way I am buying when prices are lower and selling when they are higher. I never have to worry about timing the market. Often my BITX purchases end up temporarily (days, weeks or months) in the red when there is blood in the water and I am buying into a falling knife like a dive bomber. But I never worry and just wait it out until every trade turns profitable.
The BTCD chart really might be the best chart for tracking liquidity. When you see a sharp dip, you probably want to start saving cash. When it starts climbing aggressively again, you’re probably good to start deploying cash.
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