re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

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I'm really having a hard time with the cycle theory going forward. History says it is real, but we have never had adoption levels like this nor have we seen BTC integrated with trad fi.

I'm still trying to process this but my gut says we are going to follow the path of what gold did after it was launched in ETF form.

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As long as we don’t get too hot too soon we should be ok. Hopefully we hang out between 115 and 125 for a couple months and then go for 130-140. The floor is rising quickly which is what we want. I don’t think everyone will freak out and call a cycle top if we’ve slowly crawled to $140k at Christmas.

I am still shocked at the lack of BTC threads here and the OT with us going 120+. Tells me the euphoria is not even close to where it was at the beginning of the year

For TA enjoyers, 130k was the cup and handle target.

140-150k was the Fibonacci target.

I guesstimated 150k as the ceiling when I bought in a couple years ago.

I expect a ton of profit taking in the 130-150 range.

I also think the cycle is still there, but it appears severely muted at this point.

In 2017, Bitcoin was up like 23X at the cycle peak before a significant pullback.

In 2021, Bitcoin was up like 6X at the cycle peak before a significant pullback.

Now in 2025, Bitcoin is up like 0.27X. My thoughts are that massive demand from the ETFs, improved regulatory clarity and increasing Bitcoin reserves created by nations, states, companies, pension funds, etc. that Bitcoin should top out at about $500K at the cycle top. We are nowhere near that, but I still won't be surprised if Bitcoin hits $200K to $300K for this cycle top. The increasing demand is just too great in my opinion. It will cause a supply squeeze resulting in big gains at some point this year.

Starting to see euphoria/top signals

LINK

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But it also contains confusing terms such as ETFs, blockchains and cold wallets, that can make the topic somewhat tricky to navigate. Worry not. If you're hearing these for the first time, or simply need a refresher, here are a few key terms and what they mean.

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Not at the top as long as I can still trade paper for btc.

I haven’t heard my parents or wife or anyone talking about Bitcoin yet It’s not the top When people start asking how to buy bitcoin. It’s getting close

Probably going to see a sweep of liquidity at 114000-115000.

Might see a test of 108k before continuation. I imagine traders want to see confirmation of support before buying at these prices.

ETH treasury companies are doing some serious buying as well as marketing.

I just bought a stack of BITX when Bitcoin was at $116.9K. If Bitcoin keeps falling, I will buy more stacks of BITX. It's my buying into a 2X falling knife strategy to average into BITX incrementally at progressively lower prices while seemingly making a mistake with all of the blood in the water. If Bitcoin instead quits falling and recovers to at or above $119.9K, I sell and pocket the profits, reset and wait for the next significant enough pullback that I perceive.