re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

If we are entering a new phase of BTC where we don’t see 50%+ drawdowns then I agree there. Hard to imagine that though. I could easily see where we run to 150k this year then drop down to 60k again at some point waiting on the next halving in 2028. Hard to believe that since it’s never happened. The upside to me just isn’t what it once was as we sit currently. I Certainly am not selling all my btc or anything. Just pointing that out.

Yeah I agree but I really only need it to 2x -3x from here for me to hit my generational wealth number and clock out for good.

At 125k I hit my retirement number.

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I just think that the r/r has dropped significantly.

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I think you're not understanding (or forgetting) the risk associated with BTC back in the day.

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I think it hits low to mid 200s.

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Bitcoin gained approximately 125% in 2024. If Bitcoin does just as well in 2025 as it did in 2024 then you are right on target.

Here's what I think will happen in 2025 for Bitcoin's peak price. I could be wrong but it's just my opinion.

I think Bitcoin will do MUCH better in 2025 compared to 2024, due to all of the companies, nations, states and pension funds that are increasing their interest in starting their own reserves. We are going to hear more and more about this. Same for increasingly more retail investors who will want a portion of their portfolios invested in ETFs. The demand will spike significantly and the supply won't be able to keep up.

Bitcoin trades on the margins and at some point this year a critical point is reached where Bitcoin in the exchanges reaches a very low level while demand turns into FOMO from numerous major buyers and retail as well.

So Bitcoin will beat the pants off of the 2024 gains later this year. I'm thinking about $500K peak, maybe higher.

Regardless of how high Bitcoin flys this year, it will be volatile like it always behaves with price swings of varying amplitudes. I plan to.make plenty of money off of the volatility, just like I did all year in 2024 regardless of which way Bitcoin is trending in price. Bitcoin can trade sideways and trend down and I will still make money off of price swings during the trend.

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Yeah I agree but I really only need it to 2x -3x from here for me to hit my generational wealth number and clock out for good.

At 125k I hit my retirement number.

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Will you sell it all then? I remember you saying 115k previously.

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Wow. 500k is outside of the “rainbow” chart, isn’t it? You think it’s going to break convention that much?

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I just see a US government for the first time ever that is pro Bitcoin and pro crypto. No more anti Bitcoin sentiment and hatred of Bitcoin after January 20th by the likes of leaders in control (but not for long) like Gensler and Pocahontas. There are even some pro crypto Democrats. The Crypto Super PAC is a threat to any politicians, (Democrats and Republicans) that get in the way. They gave $131M to elect quite a few pro crypto Congressmen in 2024. That amount will only go up in 2026, so look for more and more politicians to fall in line with pro Bitcoin, pro Crypto regulations and legislation or be on a list to be replaced.

The rest of the world follows the US and that is already getting started. $500K is approximately a 5X of where we are now. Almost every day, there's another country or company that talks about establishing a Bitcoin reserve. It's going to be non-stop in 2025.

There are going to be some really potentially huge buyers like the country of Bhutan, for instance who mentioned acquiring 1M Bitcoin in the future. On an average day over the last year, Blackstone alone was acquiring an average of 9X daily the amount of Bitcoin being mined. There are some giant cash piles held by companies such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, META and many many more companies who will consider (or reconsider) adding Bitcoin to their reserves and that is just in the US.

Once more and more companies, countries, states, etc. announce that they have or are buying Bitcoin, I see the FOMO taking hold in a big way. Bitcoin could go parabolic with some face melting gains. Best case for Bitcoin and related Bitcoin investment holders is that my $500K estimate is way too low.

This is simple supply and demand. If there are numerous significant buyers worldwide as I believe there will be, where are they going to get all of the Bitcoin they desire? They will fight over increasingly scarce Bitcoin, so a 5X estimate may be too conservative.

What price do you see BTC at this year?

I'm going to sell off a part prob 1/4th of my stack at 150k and think it may run as high as 175k.

I see 50-60k as the post-cycle floor. That puts a top at 150-200kish if you anticipate a 60-70% dip as is customary.

it’s really nothing outside of the norm for this phase.

Pretty solid rejection of 90k so far. Hope it holds.

Nope. Not outside the rainbow. 691k is top I believe.