re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

Disclaimer: I have a high tolerance for risk, so I am probably NOT a good advisor for newbies.

If I were you, I would put the $10K you have in cash in Bitcoin and purchase from your new Coinbase account. You could put it in the Coinbase Vault, which is in their offline cold wallets. Then if you want to your eventually move it to a Cold Wallet of your own once (and if) you feel confident with those. Once you buy actual Bitcoin, just hold it at least until you retire.

If you have $250K in a Roth and/or Traditional IRA, I would dedicate 10% of that to Bitcoin related investments. You could purchase and hold one of the ETFs such as FBTC or IBIT. I hold and trade BITO instead and reinvest the large dividends. BITO earns much less than the Spot ETFs based on stock price but it historically slightly out earns them if you reinvest the dividends.

If you are brave enough you could dabble in volatility trading. Maybe buy $20K of FBTC and just hold it very long term. Take $5K in cash and wait until you see Bitcoin pullback several thousand dollars or more. Then buy BITX (which is a 2X Bitcoin derivate that you buy and sell like a stock). Wait for Bitcoin to recover the several thousand dollars (that could be in hours, days, weeks, or months). Sell the BITX, recover your $5K trading cash, and put the gains (maybe 5% or more gain) into more FBTC. You will need ice in your veins, if you buy BITX and Bitcoin keeps falling.

Volatility trading is not for everyone. Many people can see one of their trades with significant unrealized losses and sell low, locking in losses. I have made a fortune volatility trading. I have done this trading between BITX and Cash almost continually for the past year, and have been accumulating Bitcoin and related investments since 2016. I make money volatility trading whether Bitcoin trends up, down or sideways, since Bitcoin reliabily has price swings regardless of the trend in price. I keep buying BITX into a "falling knife" as Bitcoin continues to fall more thousands of dollars and I reverse those trades as Bitcoin recovers. If Bitcoin has a massive pullback, like 50% or more, you can basically lose your entire investment in BITX, so any money you invest in BITX could be a complete loss.

Even if Bitcoin falls to $85K, I think it eventually rises way higher this year, so I have no concerns. Biden could gash the price short term if he instructs the DOJ to sell some or all of the current US stockpile of Bitcoin. But when you consider all of the upcoming cumulative demand shock from nations, states, pension funds and companies planning to create Bitcoin reserves, there's a high probability of parabolic moves upward in price.

Just understand what you are buying. If you are buying BTC because someone told you it is going up forever you are not going to do well in this space.

You have to actually understand what it is.

Read the Bitcoin Standard

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Macro environment has me a little spooked, which is probably a good thing.

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Same

Just won't make any meaningful moves as long as the DXY is rocketing like it is lately (IMO)

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Would we rather have BTC @ $100K and DXY @ 100 than BTC @ $95K and DXY @ 110?

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No doubt 95k @ 110 DXY. A lot more runway to the upside if/when DXY starts correcting

Trump isn't wasting any time on keeping his Bitcoin promises and he hasn't even been sworn in yet.

If the Bitcoin Act gets passed in the first 100 days, expect Bitcoin to take off regardless of a strengthening dollar. Imagine a majority of states and other countries and numerous companies following suit.

Bitcoin Act

Trump and his AI/Crypto Czar are already working with industry leaders with one of the primary objectives of creating the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

Trump and David Sacks Select Key Figures for Crypto Advisory Council

The Senate Banking Committee led by Tim Scott and soon to be Crypto Subcommittee leader Cynthia Lummis are already working on creating much needed positive crypto regulations and legislation.

Senate Takes Action to Regulate Cryptocurrencies

I think there are at least a few pro crypto Democrats that will jump on board. With crypto and Bitcoin adoption growing if they and any possible Republican defectors out there that want to get in the way, they stand a great chance of getting steam rolled in their next primaries or general elections because there will be many more crypto and Bitcoin investors in the US, plus the Crypto Industry Super PAC will spend even more than the $131M they spent electing more pro crypto Congressmen/Congresswomen.

Well, even if the US just creates a reserve with the current Bitcoin, many other nations, at least some states and probably lots of companies worldwide (maybe ones like Amazon, Microsoft, etc) are likely going to want lots of Bitcoin as it will finally have regulatory clarity as an approved asset class. The demand should go through the roof on top of still being in the normal 4 year bull run.

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Even if we get to $1mil per BTC thats a 10x from here and no telling how long it will be til we get there

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It was 3k six years ago. I think you’re sleeping on how fast this is happening. And if you’ve got a 10x play in the stock market let me know.

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It was 3k six years ago

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It was also 17k 7 years ago and 60k 3 years and 9 months ago

If you think it’s over then dump it.