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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

Posted on 12/24/24 at 1:02 pm to
Posted by boomtown143
Member since May 2019
9407 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

Where are the hex bros at?


He seems really worried!

sike

give this a listen....
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Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
2632 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 1:45 pm to
@Iowa, I've closed one volatility trade at a nice gain, and still have two others with significant unrealized losses. But I'll just keep those trades open until Bitcoin gets closer to $110K and then they will be nice gains and I will reverse them then. In the meantime, I will open more trades on any decent pullbacks.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38319 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 2:32 pm to
Amazing that a dude wanted all over the world is dropping youtube videos. LOL
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38319 posts
Posted on 12/25/24 at 6:37 am to
LINK

When is trad fi going to wake up and see what is happening? Holy shite.

This is what happens when you block USD and swift. That was such a huge mistake politically.
Posted by tenderfoot tigah
Red Stick
Member since Sep 2004
11231 posts
Posted on 12/25/24 at 5:08 pm to
Richard Heart spoke up about freedom too many times. Big government is going after him. Richard's lawyers made the SEC look like fools with their "time machine" comment. Now they are going after him for taxes.

If Richard were a Democrat, he would already have been on the cover of Time magazine.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
81720 posts
Posted on 12/25/24 at 7:54 pm to
quote:

If Richard were a Democrat, he would already have been on the cover of Time magazine.

Speaking of, does Denyd post here? He owe's me $1k if Richard isn't on the Time cover in a few weeks
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38319 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 9:26 am to
We are still buying.
This post was edited on 12/26/24 at 9:27 am
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
81720 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 9:46 am to
Whale alert!
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38319 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 10:12 am to
I’m expecting big moves for bitcoin in 2025.

Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
3188 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 5:55 pm to
people are calling this as the top for btc this cycle but I think that’s copium.

we are 6m+ out from true alt szn imo.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38319 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 6:09 pm to
quote:

people are calling this as the top for btc this cycle but I think that’s copium.


Anything is possible but I think we are just getting warmed up. Top will be around 175k i think. That is when I may start exiting some of mine.
Posted by tenderfoot tigah
Red Stick
Member since Sep 2004
11231 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 6:26 pm to
I just want to eat lunch on Denyed's dime.
Posted by BottomlandBrew
Member since Aug 2010
28471 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 6:55 pm to
quote:

people who have never looked at a BTC chart are calling this as the top for btc this cycle


Fixed it for you.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
3188 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 7:32 pm to
I’m probably exiting around 150~
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
2632 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 9:25 pm to
More companies around the world are starting to copy cat MicroStrategy, continued ETF growth from retail, pension plans, countries and state governments starting Bitcoin reserves. BlackRock alone has been averaging 9X in Bitcoin purchases daily versus Bitcoin mined daily.

Bitcoin supply can't keep up with the tidal wave of demand that should occur in 2025.

This post was edited on 12/26/24 at 10:27 pm
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 12/27/24 at 11:22 am to
quote:

@Iowa, I've closed one volatility trade at a nice gain, and still have two others with significant unrealized losses. But I'll just keep those trades open until Bitcoin gets closer to $110K and then they will be nice gains and I will reverse them then. In the meantime, I will open more trades on any decent pullbacks.


I just went long calls on IBIT. IBIT price $53.23 and BTC spot price about $93,550. Long $57 calls.

I have until 1/17/25.
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
2632 posts
Posted on 12/27/24 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

I just went long calls on IBIT. IBIT price $53.23 and BTC spot price about $93,550. Long $57 calls.

I have until 1/17/25.


You should definitely come out well on those.

The volatility has been pretty good this week. Frequent several thousand dollar price swings make great opportunities especially if Bitcoin also slowly trends upwards.

I'm still making more trades. I still have two "stuck" open trades with significant unrealized losses when Bitcoin was approximately $104.5K, but I will close them when they have nice gains when Bitcoin tops $107.5K or higher. I'm never phased when I have significant unrealized losses on several trades. Bitcoin has never let me down. I just wait it out and eventually profit on every trade.

I only commit 5% to 10% of my volatility trading cash on any given trade (depending on the size of the pullback), so that allows me to continue to open more "falling knife" trades if Bitcoin continues falling. Most traders think I am stupid buying into a falling knife.
I look at it like I am dollar cost averaging into lower prices. When I eventually reverse/close any trade with nice gains I put the gains in more BITO shares and recover the original cash ready to open the next trade.

This strategy has really worked well for me. I imagine I could make a lot more if I traded options like you do, but it is hard for me to stop doing what I do since I have been successful doing it going on 1 year now. I think my New Year's resolution will be to continue what I am doing but also start trading some options in smaller amounts until I get the hang of it.


This post was edited on 12/27/24 at 2:01 pm
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 12/27/24 at 2:50 pm to
Yeah, patience is a virtue. I've switched to long equity options becuase I didn't want to have to micromanage margin on future's contracts. I missed several swings, but the thing about this trade is it always appears the next time I'm paying attention. One day BTC is either going to trade sideways, or go straight up or down, and both of us will end up losing that last trade. But if your long BTC like we are, and have been making the volatility trade around it, it's not going to matter in the bigger picture.
This post was edited on 12/27/24 at 2:51 pm
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
2632 posts
Posted on 12/27/24 at 2:56 pm to
Exactly. Well said.
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
2632 posts
Posted on 12/27/24 at 3:34 pm to
Here's a snapshot of some Year-To-Date data.

Bitcoin + 117%
IBIT + 101.58%
FBTC + 101.81%
BITO (share price only) + 8.21%
BITO (reinvesting compounding dividends) + 110.36%
BITX + 133.92%

Notes:
1. None of the Bitcoin Spot ETFs or 1X derivative (BITO) are keeping up with Bitcoin's YTD % gain. However, they are still outstanding for retirement and brokerage accounts to hold and accumulate.

2. BITO (1X Bitcoin derivative) has earned about 7% more than the Spot Bitcoin ETFs year to date as long as you reinvested it's large dividends. Add 1.5% to IBIT and FBTC ETF year to date gains because they didn't start trading until 1/11/24 and Bitcoin rose approximately 1.5% between 12/31/23 through 1/10/24.

3. BITO should only be held and traded in IRAs and HSAs or similar accounts. It is a mistake in my opinion to hold or trade BITO in a taxable Brokerage account because you have to pay significant taxes on large ordinary dividends in the tax year you earn the dividends.

4. BITX (2X Bitcoin derivative) is not earning anywhere close to 2X because of futures decay. However it is great for short term volatility trading.
This post was edited on 12/27/24 at 10:53 pm
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