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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 11/13/24 at 8:19 pm to castorinho
Posted on 11/13/24 at 8:19 pm to castorinho
quote:
SBR meme coins
On Solana I'm assuming?
1
Posted on 11/13/24 at 8:39 pm to castorinho
quote:
SBR
I’m in for a lotto play
- on eth
This post was edited on 11/13/24 at 9:11 pm
Posted on 11/13/24 at 9:05 pm to mach316
quote:there's one on eth already at over 60 mil mc. The sol one is 7 mil currently. That's the one I bet on (at 1.7 mil). Think it hits a higher multiple
On Solana I'm assuming?
Posted on 11/14/24 at 7:16 am to castorinho
which ones?
only shitcoin i have a good position in is ai16z. AI play
BOBO is priming for a run
only shitcoin i have a good position in is ai16z. AI play
BOBO is priming for a run
This post was edited on 11/14/24 at 7:17 am
Posted on 11/14/24 at 7:34 am to BottomlandBrew
I suspect we will have a huge crash if Trump’s bitcoin strategic reserve does not materialize
Posted on 11/14/24 at 7:36 am to AndyJ
I'm going to trade the rumor. This said, his cabinet announcements are also poised to provide volatility and impact pricing. More than usual.
Posted on 11/14/24 at 8:51 am to I Love Bama
quote:
People are not expecting it to happen right now.
I agree with your Polymarket link that most people aren't expecting it. Most people betting against it also don't know that the new Senate Majority leader John Thune is pro crypto. Cynthia Lummis stated recently that her crypto bill that includes adding Bitcoin as a reserve currency should be up for vote in the Senate floor within the first one hundred days after Trump takes office.
This is one of Trump's promises. Trump has a very high success rate on keeping his promises. I believe that Thune will work with Lummis to get the bill approved in the Senate and sent over to the House. With Bitcoin becoming more mainstream every day by a significant percentage of voters, politicians, companies and investors in this country, why would anyone not think this bill will become law except people are just speculating that it won't because other people are speculating that it won't? The big bank backers like Pocahontas are in the minority now.
This post was edited on 11/14/24 at 8:59 am
Posted on 11/14/24 at 8:58 am to 98eagle
I'm hoping it does. Bitcoin shoots to $250,000 with the quickness if it does happen.
Posted on 11/14/24 at 9:00 am to I Love Bama
Yeah, me too. A lot of us will be much wealthier when this happens.
Here are two articles from last night and this morning.
LINK ] BTC reserve is closer than ever: Senator to push the bill in Trump’s first 100 days/link]
Crypto Community Optimistic About New Senate Leader John Thune
Thune was for a long time trying to circumvent Gary Gensler's restrictive policies on crypto....
Thune’s crypto-friendly policy history has long been in line with industry advocates. He’s long been a proponent of eliminating regulatory burdens and has pushed for the Commerce Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to be given regulatory jurisdiction over the cryptocurrency industry. Wall Street players broadly see this as a possible way around the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) more restrictive approach.
Here are two articles from last night and this morning.
LINK ] BTC reserve is closer than ever: Senator to push the bill in Trump’s first 100 days/link]
Crypto Community Optimistic About New Senate Leader John Thune
Thune was for a long time trying to circumvent Gary Gensler's restrictive policies on crypto....
Thune’s crypto-friendly policy history has long been in line with industry advocates. He’s long been a proponent of eliminating regulatory burdens and has pushed for the Commerce Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to be given regulatory jurisdiction over the cryptocurrency industry. Wall Street players broadly see this as a possible way around the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) more restrictive approach.
This post was edited on 11/14/24 at 9:19 am
Posted on 11/14/24 at 9:23 am to I Love Bama
quote:
'm hoping it does. Bitcoin shoots to $250,000 with the quickness if it does happen.
When do you think that might happen?
I'm expecting a 6 figure inheritance soon and I'm considering putting it all into BTC/crypto.
Posted on 11/14/24 at 9:37 am to Robin Masters
The clock is ticking. Once you see news that Thune is working (or even just planning) to get the Bitcoin Reserve bill up for vote and that it has Bipartisan support, the rocket engines should start warming up likely well before the bill is voted on and Trump signs it into law
Here's another article that should make Pro Bitcoin folks feel positive.
Bipartisan Support Builds For Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Support for a strategic bitcoin reserve has now crossed party lines. In a recent episode of the Unchained Podcast, Democratic Representative Ro Khanna, threw his support behind the idea: “We want to make sure that we have the openness to having bitcoin as part of the Federal Reserve and as a reserve asset because of its potential for appreciation and because of its potential to allow America to set the financial standards.”
Here's another article that should make Pro Bitcoin folks feel positive.
Bipartisan Support Builds For Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Support for a strategic bitcoin reserve has now crossed party lines. In a recent episode of the Unchained Podcast, Democratic Representative Ro Khanna, threw his support behind the idea: “We want to make sure that we have the openness to having bitcoin as part of the Federal Reserve and as a reserve asset because of its potential for appreciation and because of its potential to allow America to set the financial standards.”
This post was edited on 11/14/24 at 9:50 am
Posted on 11/14/24 at 9:39 am to Robin Masters
quote:
I'm expecting a 6 figure inheritance soon and I'm considering putting it all into BTC/crypto.
Only consider doing this if you are single without kids and/or you are already worth 7 figures.
Bitcoin is going up forever, but the swings make people emotional.
Can you stomach seeing it drop down to $40,000 and sitting there for years before shooting up to $250,000?
Posted on 11/14/24 at 4:48 pm to 98eagle
I have several questions for anyone, and I'm open to debate.
Is $87K a good level to go long again? Subjective, but this is when I'm thinking about loading up future's contracts again. The technical people's input would be valuable here.
What is the value of BTC?
Is the value the technology?
Obviously if it were to become a reserve currency my questions become moot.
If the value is the technology, and the technology can get bastardized, one way to look at this is that crypto is a derivative of a derivative. This assumes it's valued against fiat, which it largely is. I value my crypto portfolio in US Dollars. Merchants that accept crypto largely immediately convert BTC to USD.
If all of the above is true, and I'm asking, not stating, then BTC is a derivative of a derivative. USD is a derivative. BTC is then a derivative of the USD. Historically derivatives of derivatives have not fared well. This doesn't mean this time might be different, and this doesn't account for the possibility BTC becomes US reserve currency.
My unrealized gains are hedged with protective puts. On a regulated exchange which means the counter party's risk (the put seller and my strike price) is guaranteed. One of the many reasons I do this is above. The obvious reason is I lock my unrealized gains at some level in the event of a black swan event, but to me the other reasons and thought process I lay about above is worthy of some debate.
I was uncomfortable the entire last administration. The entire debate of is BTC a security, a commodity or a currency was troubling due to very educated people seemingly not being able to understand basic economics. Not the first time for those of us that remember Janet Yellen (and the posters on this board that still defend some of her nonsense).
At a minimum I'm going to trade long or short the entire reserve currency issue. I see this as an opportunity as large as the last three elections and their aftermath. The problem is the trade isn't as obvious as long VIX. long/short oil and long BTC. It's almost a trade where I'd need to be nimble enough to follow the momentum of news cycles rather than guess the outcome of the reserve currency issue.
What say everyone?
Is $87K a good level to go long again? Subjective, but this is when I'm thinking about loading up future's contracts again. The technical people's input would be valuable here.
What is the value of BTC?
Is the value the technology?
Obviously if it were to become a reserve currency my questions become moot.
If the value is the technology, and the technology can get bastardized, one way to look at this is that crypto is a derivative of a derivative. This assumes it's valued against fiat, which it largely is. I value my crypto portfolio in US Dollars. Merchants that accept crypto largely immediately convert BTC to USD.
If all of the above is true, and I'm asking, not stating, then BTC is a derivative of a derivative. USD is a derivative. BTC is then a derivative of the USD. Historically derivatives of derivatives have not fared well. This doesn't mean this time might be different, and this doesn't account for the possibility BTC becomes US reserve currency.
My unrealized gains are hedged with protective puts. On a regulated exchange which means the counter party's risk (the put seller and my strike price) is guaranteed. One of the many reasons I do this is above. The obvious reason is I lock my unrealized gains at some level in the event of a black swan event, but to me the other reasons and thought process I lay about above is worthy of some debate.
I was uncomfortable the entire last administration. The entire debate of is BTC a security, a commodity or a currency was troubling due to very educated people seemingly not being able to understand basic economics. Not the first time for those of us that remember Janet Yellen (and the posters on this board that still defend some of her nonsense).
At a minimum I'm going to trade long or short the entire reserve currency issue. I see this as an opportunity as large as the last three elections and their aftermath. The problem is the trade isn't as obvious as long VIX. long/short oil and long BTC. It's almost a trade where I'd need to be nimble enough to follow the momentum of news cycles rather than guess the outcome of the reserve currency issue.
What say everyone?
Posted on 11/14/24 at 5:44 pm to TheJunction
@Pentosh1
@BobLoukas
@ave_eli
@gammichan
@skibumtrading
@linklevosstwins
@chiefingza
@0x_zKfbg
Some bigger accounts and some smaller ones. Just depends on your risk tolerance and how new you are. Tough to get a trial by fire during a bull market.
@BobLoukas
@ave_eli
@gammichan
@skibumtrading
@linklevosstwins
@chiefingza
@0x_zKfbg
Some bigger accounts and some smaller ones. Just depends on your risk tolerance and how new you are. Tough to get a trial by fire during a bull market.
Posted on 11/14/24 at 6:10 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:It’s the fastest, hardest money that has ever existed. People struggle understanding it because it has no predecessors. It takes a while but once you see it, you can’t unsee it.
What is the value of BTC?
I’d encourage anyone that’s on the fence to get a hardware wallet and experience transacting over the network. When you toggle the value of YOUR coins to whatever currency you want, it clicks. It’s no derivative.
This post was edited on 11/14/24 at 6:25 pm
Posted on 11/14/24 at 8:53 pm to Iowa Golfer
Technically, BTC is currently just flagging above the 8day ma. Some consolidation is happening, all good and still looks very bullish. That cup and handle I was posting would measure to 100k roughly, but we all know BTC and how it can overshoot big time. I do believe BTC is starting to respect technicals more since the addition of the ETFs. When they start allowing options it could really affect vol on BTC. Flows wise, I have seen an enormous amount of bullish calls bought on MSTR even up to max strike Jan 760s for 2.6 mil. I have not seen anything to worry me at this point. Lets consolidate this move and rip through the holidays. 
Posted on 11/14/24 at 9:02 pm to thatguy777
I went long again (November contract) $87K
Posted on 11/14/24 at 11:47 pm to Iowa Golfer
I'm probably going to finally open a BITX position tomorrow during this slight dip if it stays in its current range overnight.
Also, concerning Bitcoin becoming a US Reserve asset, Bitcoin is also going to be included in individual states treasury assets.
Pennsylvania is the first state up. Bitcoin is only going up in price significantly from here as this snowball starts rolling downhill and more and more state governments align with the national trend to include Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
Pennsylvania House of Representatives Introduces Bill to Hold Bitcoin as Reserve Asset
Also, concerning Bitcoin becoming a US Reserve asset, Bitcoin is also going to be included in individual states treasury assets.
Pennsylvania is the first state up. Bitcoin is only going up in price significantly from here as this snowball starts rolling downhill and more and more state governments align with the national trend to include Bitcoin as a reserve asset.
Pennsylvania House of Representatives Introduces Bill to Hold Bitcoin as Reserve Asset
Posted on 11/15/24 at 6:08 am to Iowa Golfer
The idea that BTC is a derivative of the USD is intriguing.
You’re correct that most people still think of their crypto holdings in fiat terms, which inherently ties its perceived value back to fiat currency systems.
However, BTC’s true potential lies in its ability to decouple from fiat systems altogether, which is a long-term, paradigm-shifting scenario. The notion of BTC as a derivative of a derivative holds if you’re strictly viewing BTC through the lens of fiat valuation. But if BTC eventually becomes a unit of account on its own, that relationship could fundamentally change.
Historically, derivatives of derivatives (think of CDOs leading up to the 2008 crisis) were problematic due to leverage and opacity. BTC, on the other hand, is transparent and not inherently leveraged. It’s a bearer asset, not a claim on an underlying asset that can be rehypothecated endlessly.
You’re correct that most people still think of their crypto holdings in fiat terms, which inherently ties its perceived value back to fiat currency systems.
However, BTC’s true potential lies in its ability to decouple from fiat systems altogether, which is a long-term, paradigm-shifting scenario. The notion of BTC as a derivative of a derivative holds if you’re strictly viewing BTC through the lens of fiat valuation. But if BTC eventually becomes a unit of account on its own, that relationship could fundamentally change.
Historically, derivatives of derivatives (think of CDOs leading up to the 2008 crisis) were problematic due to leverage and opacity. BTC, on the other hand, is transparent and not inherently leveraged. It’s a bearer asset, not a claim on an underlying asset that can be rehypothecated endlessly.
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