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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

Posted on 9/5/24 at 7:23 pm to
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
3147 posts
Posted on 9/5/24 at 7:23 pm to
quote:

Does BITO really pay a dividend if the price drop equals the payout?


Well if you put it that way, there's no such thing as a dividend stock as 100% of all dividend stocks drop the stock price by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date.

I trade with BITO because year to date it still beats the Spot Bitcoin ETFs returns as long as you include reinvested dividends. I also only trade BITO only in IRAs and an HSA so I don't have any same year taxable events
Posted by Buck_Rogers
Member since Jul 2013
2073 posts
Posted on 9/5/24 at 7:41 pm to
I've been holding bitcoin and ether for a while now, so the price swings don't make me lose any sleep. Like you, my BITO trades are all done from my IRA, so I don't have to pay short term gains on all the trades made back and forth.
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
3147 posts
Posted on 9/5/24 at 9:30 pm to
I can relate to your experience with price swings not phasing you. I've been through much more amplified price swings, especially huge pullbacks and run ups, compared to what we have seen this year.

I invested in Bitcoin and GBTC back in 2016 and accumulated and held since then, at least until the Spot ETFs became available in January. I immediately traded my GBTC for several Spot ETFs before soon discovering BITX and BITO and have been trading them since then tweaking my strategy along the way.

If you convert your IRA to a margin account you can basically day trade between BITX and BITO. Or if you hold enough settled cash in your account you can "day trade" daily within the limits of your settled cash. A Fidelity broker told me about that. Once I got a handle on that, my opportunities for more trades really improved. I've look learned to trade on the trends never trying to time tops and bottoms and never feeling bad that I could have bought lower or sold higher. I just want to open and close as many trades as I can, incrementally gaining more BITO each time.
This post was edited on 9/5/24 at 9:49 pm
Posted by kung fu kenny
Birmingham
Member since Sep 2017
2152 posts
Posted on 9/5/24 at 9:48 pm to
How long do you typically have a trade open? I bought at 57.5 a few days ago so I’ve been holding since
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
3147 posts
Posted on 9/5/24 at 9:58 pm to
quote:

How long do you typically have a trade open? I bought at 57.5 a few days ago so I’ve been holding since


That's my exact last open trade. You never know how long it might take. Right now, I want a $1K gain in Bitcoin, so I need to see Bitcoin get above $58.5K to reverse it. I've seen a recovery in the same day, and sometimes several weeks worst case. I'm probably going to open another trade tomorrow if Bitcoin opens around $56K. If so I will reverse it when Bitcoin gets above $57K. So in that case I will expect to reverse it sooner than the prior trade. I've had as many as 5 open trades simultaneously in extended downtrend/sideways Bitcoin price action racking up wins in the lower price trades while having the higher price trades stuck for a while. It's hard to say on average but several days on average. Once I had several open trades and Bitcoin spiked and I reversed them all at the same time.
This post was edited on 9/5/24 at 10:02 pm
Posted by TheOcean
#honeyfriedchicken
Member since Aug 2004
45274 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 4:06 pm to
ETH taking a beating today. So bought another 2.5 eth
Posted by beaverfever
Arkansas
Member since Jan 2008
35559 posts
Posted on 9/6/24 at 4:08 pm to
Volatility right now is wild.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 9/8/24 at 8:47 pm to
article on cointelegraph saying we may retest 53k but then it’s nothing but up for 2 years

probably complete bullshite but inject that shite straight into my veins

I’m watching 55.5k. If btc rejects from that then we prob see 53k again and maybe lower. That said, alt coins dropped to/near their cycle low already and I’m not sure they’ll go below that.
This post was edited on 9/8/24 at 8:49 pm
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:39 am to
Would love to see a 4H candle close above 56k here.
Posted by Odinson
Asgard
Member since Apr 2014
2863 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 1:42 pm to
It’s all about the M2 global money supply. We may/may not test ~45k but the money printer is just warming up.
Posted by BottomlandBrew
Member since Aug 2010
29373 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:05 pm to
quote:

Would love to see a 4H candle close above 56k here.


Ask and you shall receive. It was a pretty solid candle.

Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:39 pm to
wen lambo?
Posted by kung fu kenny
Birmingham
Member since Sep 2017
2152 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 3:56 pm to
Eagle, I’ve been meaning to ask you - why do you always hold BITO rather than cash? I understand riding BITX up but I’m just wondering why you hold (and ride down) BITO. Just for the dividend?
Posted by BottomlandBrew
Member since Aug 2010
29373 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 4:07 pm to
I'll be happy with an M3.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:36 pm to
Stalled out from the 57.8k resistance. Too bad but not surprising.

Regardless of what happens over the next few weeks from a price standpoint, I think the new BTC floor is 45-50k. Barring a true black swan event, I dont think we will see BTC below 45k again. If it does, it won’t be for very long.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82089 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 9:51 pm to
quote:

I'll be happy with an M3.

Not happy when my Tesla smokes it
Posted by BottomlandBrew
Member since Aug 2010
29373 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 7:59 am to
It'll be a good race. Lap times on several tracks are close enough that driver skill will come in to play.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82089 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 9:38 am to
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
3147 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 10:36 am to
quote:

Eagle, I’ve been meaning to ask you - why do you always hold BITO rather than cash? I understand riding BITX up but I’m just wondering why you hold (and ride down) BITO. Just for the dividend?


I have been taking BITO's dividend in cash since March and growing BITO shares monthly using my trading strategy. Now I have way too much cash which is okay because I am retired and we live off of it. So I am switching to reinvesting BITO dividends since I don't need to grow my cash stockpiles which are actually in Fidelity SPAXX earning just under 5%.

The reason I trade back to BITO from BITX is because of my strategy of trading between 1X and 2X Bitcoin tracking investments. That's how arbitrage works for me to generate more shares. Now that I don't need more cash, I could trade between BITX and FBTC or between BITX and IBIT if I wanted to.

The reason I don't trade between BITX and cash and just increase cash instead of BITO is because I don't want to miss Bitcoin's move upwards. It usually moves very quickly and I don't want to miss upwards moves and especially parabolic moves. So I believe I need to have a lot of shares in Bitcoin related investments at all times. The majority of Bitcoin's rise in a year can be attributed to maybe a half dozen days. If I were trading between BITX and cash directly, there is a good chance I could miss some or most of the big gains.

I'm out hiking, fishing and boating and doing other stuff a lot so I can't watch my investments super closely. I just check on them occasionally usually daily at a minimum and make my trades. Yesterday I left early AM to go fishing with one of my friends and I missed the opportunity in the morning to initiate another one of my trades. Not a big deal to me, but if I would have been home paying more attention, I would have initiated a BITO to BITX trade when the market opened and I would have reversed it later same day after the very quick rise.

I still have that open trade where I traded a chunk of BITO for BITX last week when Bitcoin was at approx $57.5K and then Bitcoin proceeded to quickly plummet below $54K. That happens fairly frequently, although that drop is more than the average drop after I initiate trades. That didn't phase me at all. I just wait for the inevitable recovery to above my trigger price point which should happen sometime in the near future.

Bitcoin volatility is pretty dependable. I don't know when it's going up or down and how much, but I just trade on price points as they materialize and I am available to trade. I don't pay much attention to news and charts. I use that time to enjoy retirement.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 10:54 am
Posted by kung fu kenny
Birmingham
Member since Sep 2017
2152 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:42 am to
This is great thinking - thanks for sharing.

Do you use any metrics or triggers for identify when to buy BITX or do you truly just look for a 1-2k drop in a certain timeframe and go from there?
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