re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

Good chart. Looks like we’re basically on track.

Some articles are suggesting a drop to 42-45k if buyers don’t step in. I think the play here is deploy some capital now but save most of it incase there’s a dip to that range. Really can’t see the market dropping much more than it has without an actual black swan event. Maybe another 10% at the most?

Not financial advice

I’d be happy with it closing above 54k as that would basically complete the wyckoff

Check out those wicks on the day chart for eth and btc. Pretty strong rejections of those lows.

Newbie crypto guy here. Should I be buying bitcoin today?

Now we have potential recession and Middle East war.

I was trying to get my head around BTC resistance and support levels today.

No idea. What’s everyone else’s thoughts on this?

I need to take some time and understand your volatility trade. My preference would be doing your trade with options rather than a find or ETF so reasons I’ve touched on here previously. The BTC options market has changed quite a lot, so the instruments you’re using might very well be the most efficient way to accomplish what you’re doing. I know you explained the trade a few pages back. I’ll look for that again. I like the idea of generating income and using that income to purchase the asset.

People also say buy and hold. I rarely read buy, hold and rebalance.

They like BRK stock. A guy who loves to buy dividend payers, but doesn’t really like to pay dividends. An owner who has knowingly lied to his shareholders in an annual report at least one. Knowingly lied and misrepresented the tax code for political purposes. And I own BRK.

People on here talk about cutting edge stuff, and often talk about having a small percentage of their portfolios in speculative plays. Then two paragraphs later absolutely make fun of BTC. Contempt prior to investigation. .

People say a lot of stuff. The goal is to make money and maybe help someone else along the way.

For the most part the crypto thread doesn’t have a lot of that crap.

I usually just ask some questions. Sometime I telegraph what I’m going to do. I’m never critical of anyone. But there are some so called experts on the MB where I’m pretty well served to do the exact opposite of tier regurgitated text book crap and stuff they make up.

Sorry Iowa Golfer, I must have accidentally down voted you. My wife called me to dinner when I was reading your post. I thought I hit the upvote button and came back to respond and I saw you have two down votes.

Concerning my strategy, my goal is to increase the number of BITO shares I have every month, and do that without investing any new capital. I do that by simply trading between BITX and BITO. If I perceive a $1K pullback or more in Bitcoin, I incrementally sell part of my BITO position (maybe 5% on average depending on the pullback) and immediately buy BITX. Then when Bitcoin recovers to at least $1K or higher when I made the original trade, I reverse the trade and end up with more BITO shares than when I started.

If Bitcoin is on an extended down trend, I will initiate this trade potentially multiple times and each trade has it's own reversal trigger price that I gain more BITO shares in making it.

I never will have outstanding trades that amount to more than 25% of my BITO. I simply stop and just wait until my trigger prices are reached. By the end of every month, if I have any open trades, I will reverse those even at a loss as long as my successful trades that I closed offset any loss such that I still gained shares.

This strategy will also work between any 2X derivative and a corresponding equity that tracks at 1X of the same asset. So trading between BITX and IBIT would work, or between NVDA and NVDL would also work.

What's hard is if there is a downtrend with a recovery that takes a couple of weeks or longer, or if there is a really big drop like last Friday and today and you have open trades. I was very lucky recently. I didn't have any open trades last week as I was just holding my max BITO shares going into BITO's ex-dividend date last Thursday. Plus I had to travel last week to another city to help a friend build a handicap ramp and I was not even paying attention to Bitcoin or making trades. Otherwise I would now be sitting on some 35% or so losses to wait out for Bitcoin to recover.

So there's definitely risks in my strategy. At times I need diamond hands. April and May this year were great. April was a down month, May was an up month but both had nice up and down swings that had relatively quick recoveries. June had very little volatility in comparison so I didn't gain as many new shares. I just got started this month. After the big pullback from Friday and this morning, where I luckily avoided a big loss right out of the gate, I traded about 10% of my BITO for BITX this morning since this trade was started after such a significant drop. Bitcoin's price was approximately $53K when I made the trades. If I would have been available to trade right at the open, my trades would have been better when Bitcoin was at approximately $51K.

If Bitcoin continues to fall from here, I will initiate more trades and wait on their recovery trigger prices. If Bitcoin starts trending up, I will close out today's trade at $55K or higher and wait on my next perceived $1K pullback. I would normally reverse my trade today at $54K or higher, but this has been such a big drop today, that I doubled my normal 5% trade and I doubled my normal $1K or higher recovery trigger price point.

It's a very simple strategy. It has it's risks. I will abandon this strategy when I think this cycle's bull run is over potentially early to mid next year.

I. don't trade options. I assume a similar strategy using options may be better and less risky.

That's pretty nice that I could already reverse my trade from this morning. My only problem, which could turn out to be a plus, is that I have to wait until the 2nd business day (until this Wednesday morning) before I can sell the BITX on this trade or Fidelity will warn me with a Good Faith trading violation. This does happen fairly often when Bitcoin recovers above my reversal trigger price point before the 2nd trading day begins. Often I end up gaining more shares when this happens, but I have also experienced another downturn before I can reverse my trade. Also often I am busy and miss an initial trade after a $1K drop or the reversal trigger point. Those also sometimes work in my favor with a better trade, or worse like today when I could have bought BITX at $51K instead of $53K.

Also in an extended down trend if I had several open trades of approximately 5% each of my stack, as long as my prior open trades have been open at least 2 trading days, my last trade could be reversed immediately. So I could make a new trade for BITX and if Bitcoin gained $1K or more in the next minute, I could immediately reverse the trade and sell the amount of BITX that I just purchased, because I had more than that amount of BITX already in that same account.