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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

Posted on 7/5/24 at 7:41 pm to
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
3147 posts
Posted on 7/5/24 at 7:41 pm to
quote:

I snagged 1k shares of FBTC in retirement account


Good move. I believe that is likely very good timing, and I agree by 1Q 2025 Bitcoin should be significantly higher. There is an order of magnitude more institutional investment on the way (compared to the current ETFs) that is still in due diligence phase. Vanguard is going to eventually see it is missing the boat also
Posted by thatguy777
br
Member since Feb 2007
2506 posts
Posted on 7/5/24 at 7:50 pm to
Yep I didn’t realize vanguard wasn’t in the game til I tried to go buy another 1k in my wife’s Roth and vanguard said nope. Been holding btc eth etc since 2017 but don’t follow it extremely closely. After 7 years im ready to ring the register on crypto but I have targets I’m waiting on, realistic ones. I’ll always be involved in crypto but I am ready to cash in the majority and wait for the next dip to re evaluate, I’ve said this every cycle though lol..
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38431 posts
Posted on 7/6/24 at 9:39 am to
I wished I shared your thoughts. I could see a dump down to 45k. This is a ton of new supply coming online.

We are in unchartered waters until at least October.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 7/6/24 at 12:15 pm to
Pretty strong rebound today across the board.

BTC needed to close above 57k for the week to keep a bullish setup from a technical aspect and it sort of did that.

Still channel-bound. 54k-62k is the descending channel.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 7/6/24 at 3:51 pm to
SEC and Mt Gox FUD gone in the same month.

Crazy stuff.
Posted by finchmeister08
Member since Mar 2011
39817 posts
Posted on 7/6/24 at 4:31 pm to
is that a good thing?
Posted by boomtown143
Member since May 2019
9407 posts
Posted on 7/6/24 at 5:36 pm to
quote:

is that a good thing?


Yes.

BTC maxi's hate it though. (hence the downvote)
This post was edited on 7/6/24 at 5:37 pm
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 7/6/24 at 5:48 pm to
It’s a pretty big deal.

If any token was going to be a security, it was gonna be BNB.
Posted by boomtown143
Member since May 2019
9407 posts
Posted on 7/6/24 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

It’s a pretty big deal.



Yep!
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
3147 posts
Posted on 7/6/24 at 11:39 pm to
I just have a different mindset. When the Germany and Mt. Gox news came out, I had a feeling there would be overreaction by the herd. I think yesterday was the turning point. Now there is news that Germany is buying Bitcoin. You can get whipsawed by ever changing positive and negative news. That's why I trade and profit from Bitcoin volatility.
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 7:04 am
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82091 posts
Posted on 7/7/24 at 12:08 pm to
Germany didn’t buy, the coins they had for sale yesterday did not all get sold so the remaining returned to their wallet

I don’t see how price improves until Germany is done selling. They have a frickload left and price has been very correlated to when they sell their batches
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
3147 posts
Posted on 7/7/24 at 12:21 pm to
German Government Surprises Market with 1,915 Bitcoin Buyback, Fuels Crypto Recovery

Also since 2023, Bitcoin has seen $223 Billion added to the market. The US and German governments have confiscated $9 Billion in that same timeframe. That represents approximately 4% of the new market cap. It's really insignificant in the big scheme of things, especially since there are tens of trillions of dollars on the sidelines waiting for more worldwide financial institutions to finish their due diligence and unleash their financial advisors and advertisements. So when we see over 20% plus pullbacks on US and Germany and Mt. Gox FUD the herd goes crazy selling and overdoes it.

I think this pullback is likely done and people selling now are selling at or near the bottom. If Bitcoin drops further like many believe it will, then I will still profit with my trading strategy where I profit whether Bitcoin goes up or down. I just need volatility whether Bitcoin is generally going up, down or sideways. The more frequent and higher amplitude pullbacks and recoveries, the better. I'm not trading Bitcoin or Spot ETFs. I just trade Bitcoin volatility between BITO and BITX and as a result gain more BITO shares every month plus take their large dividends in cash every month.
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 12:48 pm
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82091 posts
Posted on 7/7/24 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

German Government Surprises Market with 1,915 Bitcoin Buyback, Fuels Crypto Recovery

I saw that

I also saw where someone smarter than me pointed out that it was not them buying and that the exchanges were returning the coins to their wallet. Shortly after that "buyback" they started selling again.
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38431 posts
Posted on 7/7/24 at 2:17 pm to
Yep. Not a buyback.
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
3147 posts
Posted on 7/7/24 at 2:40 pm to
Okay, it's not a buy back. The point is, there is always competing good and bad news for Bitcoin that people, particularly weak handed newbies react emotionally to and that drives their panic selling or panic buying. I guess if the Fed news this week is more dovish for a rate cut, then we will see panic buying. People have overreacted on this news in my opinion and this is a good buying point or a good trading point for volatility traders like myself. Regardless, anyone paying attention to what Bitcoin does with regard to news and volatility has seen this same rollercoaster type behavior over and over again.

I guess anyone scared of the German government and Mt Gox news should just sell out and hope for lower prices to get back in. That's more risky in my opinion. There's never a worse feeling than selling low at the wrong time only to see Bitcoin rise back significantly and then jump back in after missing the boat. Traders can also hedge their bets and open some short positions if that makes them feel better.

In the meantime, I am almost certain I'll be executing small incremental volatility trades again this week starting tomorrow. Whether Bitcoin climbs, drops or trades sideways afterwards, I have my plan to capitalize on it.

What are y'all planning to do or what have you done as a result of the recent US & Germany government news and the My Gox news? If the Germans and Mt Gox sellers continue to sell large amounts of Bitcoin, don't you think at some point that buying pressure takes over, or do you see the market dropping and trading sideways indefinitely until Mt Gox and the Germans are gone or until Bitcoin is obliterated?

Looking at the big picture, Bitcoin is basically a new asset class still in it's infancy on an ever growing larger scale. FIAT is on life support in comparison and governments around the world don't seem to care and will keep spending and printing money until it does. Germany and Mt Gox are just a hiccup in this cycle.
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 3:12 pm
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82091 posts
Posted on 7/7/24 at 3:14 pm to
Planning to not do much. Taking advantage of this dip to purchase the first spot BTC since my last purchase in January. Have mainly been buying various miner stocks and options over the past 6 months instead of spot but as long as we bounce under $55k I’ll be adding spot
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
3147 posts
Posted on 7/7/24 at 3:24 pm to
Holding and buying the dips like what you are doing is a very good plan in my opinion. Definitely a lot better than what many of those who trade on fear are doing.

Another point about Good News, Bad News.

The US and German governments have approximately $9B between them in confiscated Bitcoin.

Mt Gox is also going to pay out approximately $9B in Bitcoin.

The end of the 3rd quarter this year, the distribution of $16 Billion in cash by FTX could propel Bitcoin. It's funny that almost no one is talking about this. But they will before long. This news will be used to manipulate the market. You can count on it.

It's almost like they cancel each other out ($18B versus $16B). It's unlikely that the two governments will sell all of their Bitcoin. It's unlikely that all Mt Gox Bitcoin payouts will be sold. It's unlikely that all FTX cash payout recipients will buy Bitcoin, but they all purchased Bitcoin before.

So who knows, but it looks like those 3 things are a wash this year. More good news and FUD to follow. That's for sure. It's non-stop. The best part of this cycle's bull run is also ahead.

One last point about bad news. Once the Spot Bitcoin ETFs started trading on January 11th, GBTC has shed about $35 Billion in market cap which is equivalent to $35 Billion in Bitcoin selling pressure. That's about twice the amount of the worst case 100% sell that would be possible for Mt Gox, Germany and the US confiscation sales combined. GBTC was a hiccup and so are these new worries for many investors.

In the meantime, more lemmings have jumped off the cliff.
This post was edited on 7/7/24 at 4:44 pm
Posted by boomtown143
Member since May 2019
9407 posts
Posted on 7/7/24 at 4:17 pm to
Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10676 posts
Posted on 7/7/24 at 7:55 pm to
Never trust holiday weekend price action…
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