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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 7/23/21 at 6:54 pm to Tiguar
Posted on 7/23/21 at 6:54 pm to Tiguar
Most of those graphs don't consider the amount of money pulled away from other assets it would take for BTC to reach those levels.
At 200K thats around a 4 trillion market cap. That money has to come from somewhere.
You cant just slap all time highs of 18k and 200k on a graph and treat them the same.
ETA: Im not saying BTC wont ever get to 200k, I am investing in it in hopes that it does, but it would need to take major market cap from other assets, when that wasn't the case for the previous ATH.
At 200K thats around a 4 trillion market cap. That money has to come from somewhere.
You cant just slap all time highs of 18k and 200k on a graph and treat them the same.
ETA: Im not saying BTC wont ever get to 200k, I am investing in it in hopes that it does, but it would need to take major market cap from other assets, when that wasn't the case for the previous ATH.
This post was edited on 7/23/21 at 6:58 pm
2
Posted on 7/23/21 at 7:03 pm to James11111
quote:
At 200K thats around a 4 trillion market cap. That money has to come from somewhere.
gold (10T) and bonds (100T) in the near term and then real estate (eventually)
Posted on 7/23/21 at 7:07 pm to Tiguar
quote:
meaningful bullrun may occur around next halvening where we reach what we thought we were supposed to be getting now.
If we are waiting until mid-2024 for all time highs that is a brutal winter and maybe the longest ever
Posted on 7/23/21 at 7:08 pm to James11111
Hence why retarded projects need to die off.
This market cap issue you’re describing is a big part of why we only get 60k so far.
Market cap increased very similarly to 2017/2018 but BTC did not.
This market cap issue you’re describing is a big part of why we only get 60k so far.
Market cap increased very similarly to 2017/2018 but BTC did not.
Posted on 7/23/21 at 7:14 pm to DallasTiger11
That would actually be what we’ve always seen- ATHs are typically separated by 3.5 years.
Posted on 7/23/21 at 7:22 pm to Tiguar
pumping Friday night after low volume into the daily close lol
Posted on 7/23/21 at 7:32 pm to DallasTiger11
quote:
If we are waiting until mid-2024 for all time highs that is a brutal winter and maybe the longest ever
Bitcoin mainstream acceptance will be a far more important driver than the next halving.
This post was edited on 7/23/21 at 7:34 pm
Posted on 7/23/21 at 7:46 pm to Tiguar
quote:
It’ll run to 35-36 again
I haven't had much luck with my "trade portfolio" on CBP. I currently have a sell order at $36,300. Im trying to get 15% per trade; maybe that's a little greedy and I should try for 10% or lower with more trades.
Posted on 7/23/21 at 10:04 pm to Tiguar
quote:
So I am toying around with some different tools
What does this mean for long term accumulators who are using DCA? Is there a year to double down? What if the low target it doesn't come? What percentage chance do we have at seeing another ATH?
Posted on 7/24/21 at 6:50 am to down time
It means anything below 30k is a good dca for the time being if you’re itching to spend now. Can’t be sure it won’t go lower until it drops well below 30. We already sort of knew that but 31-32k is the 350d moving average and death crossing that will send it lower.
As far as if there’s gonna be another ATH, you really have to decide that for yourself. Half the indicators said we really undershot our ATH and should go higher, the other half say we’re done.
As far as if there’s gonna be another ATH, you really have to decide that for yourself. Half the indicators said we really undershot our ATH and should go higher, the other half say we’re done.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 8:06 am to Tiguar
This weekend has been juicy. Bull trap or signs of life? The pessimist in me thinks bull trap.
I'm just using the profits to take some extra usdc aave loans.. I don't want to buy right now
I'm just using the profits to take some extra usdc aave loans.. I don't want to buy right now
This post was edited on 7/25/21 at 8:08 am
Posted on 7/25/21 at 8:28 am to Hulkklogan
On chain analysis is saying this is likely just the beginning of a run up. Feels like we just need a catalyst for it to rocket again
Posted on 7/25/21 at 8:31 am to Hulkklogan
It’s not a bull trap until it flirts with 36k. Two weeks ago was a bull trap.
Last week was a bear trap flirting with 29k.
Right now it’s just volatility. But going to 36k again after that heavy dip will be a sign of strength- capping out around 34.5-35 is meh.
Last week was a bear trap flirting with 29k.
Right now it’s just volatility. But going to 36k again after that heavy dip will be a sign of strength- capping out around 34.5-35 is meh.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 9:51 am to Tiguar
First down day all week so far. Can’t complain too much I suppose. However, every time this week that is has dipped 2% it followed up by finishing ~2% up for the day. Good rebounds
This post was edited on 7/25/21 at 9:58 am
Posted on 7/25/21 at 9:58 am to Tiguar
quote:
That would actually be what we’ve always seen- ATHs are typically separated by 3.5 years.
Not gonna happen. If 64k was the macro top we are in a new paradigm and all past cycles are mostly irrelevant
Posted on 7/25/21 at 10:03 am to DallasTiger11
I don't think it would influence the timeline THAT much- wind was just sucked out of sails + the natural logarithm of BTC.
That website I was spamming earlier had a neat little graph showing BTC making "lower highs" and "lower floors" through each cycle into the future which would be commensurate with what we're seeing now.
Alt coins are the future of big gainz until BTC hits a bigger adoption phase.
That website I was spamming earlier had a neat little graph showing BTC making "lower highs" and "lower floors" through each cycle into the future which would be commensurate with what we're seeing now.
Alt coins are the future of big gainz until BTC hits a bigger adoption phase.
This post was edited on 7/25/21 at 10:04 am
Posted on 7/25/21 at 10:40 am to Tiguar
LINK
this graph is interesting. Hashrate vs. price.
Hash rate pretty clearly looks like a pseudo-cap for price. I'm trying to figure out the rationale of this. Is it because less people mining means miners are willing to sell for less? Whereas if more people mine, then they get a smaller chunk of the pie and want to sell for more to make it worth their time?
Don't know, but you can see when we pinged off 60k multiple times, it was at the hash rate logarithm.
this graph is interesting. Hashrate vs. price.
Hash rate pretty clearly looks like a pseudo-cap for price. I'm trying to figure out the rationale of this. Is it because less people mining means miners are willing to sell for less? Whereas if more people mine, then they get a smaller chunk of the pie and want to sell for more to make it worth their time?
Don't know, but you can see when we pinged off 60k multiple times, it was at the hash rate logarithm.
Posted on 7/25/21 at 11:08 am to TigerTatorTots
the end of the month options expiry is typically where we see some downward pressure. that's wed so we will see. a lot of shorts right now that might get squeezed if big buyers come
Posted on 7/25/21 at 6:33 pm to rocket31
Helluva week
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