re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

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How long have I been saying on here how this stock is so inconsistent. Long term as a hold for 5 plus years, maybe. But anything else is not going to be worth the headache and the volatility in my opinion.

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Not 5 years. Remember, it was $20 8 months ago. A nearly 400% profit is nothing to sneeze about. Eventually, $8B in revenue with the lowest in class debt rate, plus all of the subsidiaries is going to get noticed. Right now, all of the AI stocks are taking a big hit.

Again, I say that it isn't this stock, it's the AI sentiment. If you think AI is going to wither on the vine, then now is the time to get out. If AI spending is the future, then this stock is probably going to have another explosion.

I don't know what the future holds. I'm betting on AI.

Did anyone see where the federal government is looking to hire 1000 AI engineers?

When will they do 8b in revenue?

Down to 78 overnight

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When will they do 8b in revenue?

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I'm not an expert, so I'm taking my numbers from other posts in the past.

At $80/share, It's trading at about 20x revenue, which is ARR of about $1B. That is fairly average, but let's say you think it should be 10x, to be conservative. That would make $40/share a fair price, based on 10x valuation, right now. Note, it was trading at over 30x at one point.

Let's also say that ARR for the end of 2026 is $6B, which is basically what they already have on the books: current ARR plus the MSFT/META contracts. Remember, NBIS guidance is $7 to $9B, so this is a lowball estimate. $6B is 6 times the current revenue, which would put the share price at $240/share at the end of 2026. Even if you factor in a 10% dilution, you're still over $200/share by the end of 2026. That's at an ultra-conservative 10x valuation.

If NBIS meets their expectations of $8B, then a fair price is over $300/share by this time next year. Remember, that's using parameters that price it at $40/share right now (10X earnings), so that is very conservative.

None of this factors in the values of Avride, Clickhouse, Toloka, and TripleTen - companies that NBIS owns all or part of. Collectively, they are probably worth over $10B.

Right now, the AI sector is taking a beating and stock prices are down across the board. Investors fear that the "bubble" will burst and that the companies are overvalued. Once the sentiment turns around, I believe NBIS will be a star in the sector.

Investors are also looking for the return on all the investments into AI, and they aren't seeing it, yet, so they think that MSFT, GOOGL, META, etc, are going to start cutting their spending goals for AI. The recent formation of the Tech Force by the Trump administration reinforces the idea that AI is not only important, but also absolutely necessary in order to compete with China economically and militarily. Nobody is going to turn the spigot off.

If China wins the race to AGI, they can hack our systems, turn our nukes against us, screw up our banking system, or anything else they want to do. I think the world war of the future won't be won by having the most nuclear weapons, but by simply turning off the electricity of our enemies and forcing them to choose between surrender or starvation. that's why it is important to win the race to AGI.

If you are wondering what all the people are going to do for a living after AI makes their jobs obsolete, I would venture to say that there will be an incredible market for off the grid products, at some point. Would you buy an old fashioned ICE vehicle that has no computer chips in it, or would you prefer an electric vehicle that AGI can switch off or take control of at any time?

I don't know how I went from NBIS valuation to World War III....

Interesting times.

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DawgCountry

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You're speechless, right?

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I enjoyed the write up

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Thanks. Total oversimplification, but I think it's mostly correct.

Futures pointing to another down day. I'm not going to let my mood be ruined because a stock went down a few bucks. I believe it will turn around, soon and we'll have big days ahead. I don't have any options right now, and I don't need the money right now, so that may have something to do with it...

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Few bucks? Down over $40k

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I was referring to the people complaining that it is down 3 bucks, pre-market.

I dont care about that. The market has reset the price. Where does it go from here? Either you believe it will go up in 2026 or it won't. If you dont believe it will, the you should probably sell. If you think its going to double, then keep it.

I have made a lot of money trying to predict what stock prices are going to be next week or next month. I've lost a lot, doing that, too. I do better picking an undervalued stock for a solid company and not getting to emotional when it goes up or down on a daily basis - especially this stock. I'm confident that it will end up where it should be, eventually. Not this week, but by the end of the year...

I’ve lost pretty much everything here, I cannot believe how far these ai stocks have fallen.

frick this, Im out. GL fellas