re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

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I'm not liking the pullback prior to market opening.

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just stretching her legs, that's all. Gotta touch stretch down and touch your toes before you go runnin' Good day in the making

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No kidding. It’s not like we haven’t seen this before. Clear the morning action and then let’s go!

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yea, those weekly $125 for $4 look spicy right now...if it pulls back over the next hour into that $113 range, could have fun with those

Shits getting old, this action is very surprising

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Shits getting old, this action is very surprising

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If you're not surprised before earnings then your holding General Mills. I see this is a last ditch effort to pile in.

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Given their debt situation who knows how the market will react.

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Guidance could be key. They need to show at least a plan of reducing debt, going forward.

If excess debt drags CRWV down, then it could be a plus if NBIS has a much better debt forecast. I am interested to see if NBIS gives guidance as to when they expect a net profit.

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Eerily quiet on here. Like everyones futures depend on something Tbh.. Im scared crapless. May buy some puts for insurance

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I did that last week. Then it bumped up. It was like a double reverse. I’m just holding tight to my shares and my 12/21 120s.

We will see.

Grok:

Yes, the expected EPS decline from **-$0.38 in Q2** to **-$0.52 in Q3** (a ~37% worsening) is **not** due to deteriorating operations — in fact, the core AI infrastructure business is accelerating. The drop is driven by **aggressive, front-loaded investments** to capture explosive demand. Here’s the breakdown:

### 1. **Massive Capex Ramp (Primary Driver)**
- **Q3 capex is projected to spike** as NBIS deploys the first wave of GPUs into the **Vineland (NJ) data center** and scales other clusters (Finland, etc.).
- FY25 capex guidance: **$2 billion**, with **~60–70% weighted to H2** (i.e., Q3 + Q4). This means **Q3 alone could see $500–$700M in spending**, up sharply from Q2.
- Capex hits the P&L via **depreciation** and **R&D/operating expenses**, directly pressuring EPS.

### 2. **Hiring & Operational Scaling**
- Headcount grew **~50% QoQ in Q2**; Q3 likely adds another **30–40%** (engineers, data center ops, sales).
- Stock-based compensation (SBC) also rises with new hires and the post-IPO vesting cliff.

### 3. **Timing of Revenue vs. Costs**
- **Revenue recognition lags capacity build-out**: GPUs ordered in Q3 may not generate **full-run-rate revenue until Q4/Q1 2026**.
- Example: Microsoft’s $17.4B deal ramps gradually; Q3 likely sees **partial contribution**, while **100% of capex hits immediately**.

### 4. **Interest & Financing Costs**
- NBIS raised **$4.2B** in equity + convertibles. While mostly non-dilutive in EPS terms short-term, **interest expense** on converts and **foregone interest income** (cash deployed to capex) add ~$0.05–$0.08/headwind.

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### Bottom Line
| Factor | EPS Impact (Q3 vs Q2) |
|--------|------------------------|
| Higher capex/depreciation | **-$0.18 to -$0.22** |
| Hiring & SBC | **-$0.06 to -$0.08** |
| Revenue lag | **-$0.03 to -$0.05** |
| Financing costs | **-$0.05** |
| **Total** | **~-$0.14 worse ? matches consensus** |

**This is a classic high-growth story**: EPS dips **temporarily** as NBIS sacrifices short-term profitability to lock in multi-year AI cloud contracts. Analysts view this as **investment, not impairment** — hence the stock’s **121x TTM P/E** despite negative earnings.

**Watch tomorrow’s call** for:
- Updated **capex phasing** (is Q3 the peak burn quarter?)
- **Vineland utilization trajectory** (early revenue ramp = EPS upside in Q4)
- **EBITDA inflection** (core business already positive; group-level breakeven in sight?)

If NBIS raises **2025 ARR guidance again** (currently $900M–$1.1B) and confirms **Q4 EBITDA positivity**, the EPS dip will be dismissed as noise.

Damn. That’s impressive. Thank you BB8….err Grock

Just got to the bar. Starting my 15 hour cheerleading session