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re: Man it sure is quiet in here when Market goes up for a few days
Posted on 10/26/22 at 8:49 am to FLObserver
Posted on 10/26/22 at 8:49 am to FLObserver
quote:
Do we really have this many bears in here?
I think it's more people just being realistic than pessimistic.
Some here love to mention that the economy and the market being different things. The economy has influence over the market and vice versa, so they are deeply interconnected. There's some warping with trader expectations, but the stronger the economic movement, the more likely it is the market will trend with it eventually. The economy is in the shitter (and has been all year) so it shouldn't be surprising that the market has trended downward since the end of 2021 (the Dow is currently down 12% YTD, 10% over the last 12 months). Most of the fundamental drivers (lack of workers, continued high inflation, continued high fuel prices due to lack of supply, lessening refinement capacity, etc) are not only still in place, but there's little being done to correct them.
Until they are corrected, what's going to continue to drive the market upward?
2
Posted on 10/26/22 at 8:53 am to Bard
quote:It works the opposite most often. Markets are forward looking and typically drop quicker than the economy and rebound before the economy recovers.
the stronger the economic movement, the more likely it is the market will trend with it eventually
Posted on 10/27/22 at 12:40 pm to Bard
My take on this recent market bounce is that it’s primarily due to speculation that we’re near the point of interest rate hikes coming to an end. Somewhat premature IMO. Again underlying economic conditions have not improved. In fact I’m surprised that the market hasn’t dropped today with the GDP reported as positive. Seemed like we would be in the good news is bad phase since that gdp may encourage further rate hikes. And for those ridiculing the bears, re-check where the broader market indices are compared to the peak earlier this year
Posted on 10/28/22 at 3:29 pm to minister of truth
quote:
In fact I’m surprised that the market hasn’t dropped today with the GDP reported as positive.
To be honest, I was a bit surprised by that as well. With these rallies, I’ve continued selling call spreads on SPX, seeing the income as a sort of hedge against potential downturns going into December. And I sold more with less than a minute to go today. We shall see.
Course those initial positions have gone from a 10 delta average to roughly 28 or so now! Great day overall for my trades and investments, but SPX was like a Bruce Lee kick to the face.
Posted on 10/28/22 at 3:57 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:Raises hand.
How many of these alleged bears are positioned differently or have changed their portfolio since last year?
... and a bunch of my money got caught on the sideline. I'm still betting bear market rally, but if not, this will be my worst miss since going "all in" in Feb2009. At least the recoup came quickly then. If this rally continues, it will take a while to deploy all the sidelined cash.
This post was edited on 10/28/22 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 10/28/22 at 5:08 pm to NC_Tigah
This post was edited on 10/28/22 at 5:17 pm
Posted on 10/28/22 at 6:04 pm to notiger1997
What we have witnessed over the past 20 months puts us in course for a massive fall. Luckily people have wised up and looks like repubs will take over house and Senate. Have a lot to repair
Posted on 10/28/22 at 8:50 pm to NC_Tigah
I’ve come to the realization that whoever said the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent was a smart person
Posted on 10/29/22 at 7:43 am to Kipsgto
quote:
I’ve come to the realization that whoever said the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent was a smart person
Probably a good reason to always be invested in a diverse portfolio of stocks, etfs, bonds etc...instead of trying to time getting back in. Never would have thought Amzn and Goog would be my two worst stocks in my portfolio
This post was edited on 10/29/22 at 7:51 am
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