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Macro Economic Growth Possible w/o Population Growth Long Term?
Posted on 6/7/18 at 9:53 am
Posted on 6/7/18 at 9:53 am
I have wondered about this from time to time - lately while pondering sustained 3% GDP growth.
Could a country/region experience long term (5+ years) economic growth without population growth over the same period? Would minimal housing starts be offset by another economic driver?
The presence of a precious natural resource might allow a country to do so. Also, unchanged/steady population while populations decrease in other countries across the globe might..?
Could a country/region experience long term (5+ years) economic growth without population growth over the same period? Would minimal housing starts be offset by another economic driver?
The presence of a precious natural resource might allow a country to do so. Also, unchanged/steady population while populations decrease in other countries across the globe might..?
3
Posted on 6/7/18 at 9:59 am to SwatMitchell
Fix the trade deficit.
Sell something the world needs better than they can do it themselves.
Easier said than done when other countries have cheaper labor and state sponsored enterprise.
But there is your GDP output without relying on housing.
Sell something the world needs better than they can do it themselves.
Easier said than done when other countries have cheaper labor and state sponsored enterprise.
But there is your GDP output without relying on housing.
Posted on 6/7/18 at 10:00 am to SwatMitchell
I wonder this kind of thing too. Is economic growth infinite on a finite earth?
I would think you could test by checking out countries that haven’t had much population growth and see if their gdp has grown over the same period.
I would think you could test by checking out countries that haven’t had much population growth and see if their gdp has grown over the same period.
Posted on 6/7/18 at 10:12 am to TheIndulger
quote:
I wonder this kind of thing too. Is economic growth infinite on a finite earth?
This exactly...do we have to keep adding people for extended $$$ growth?
It's tough to test in reality with all of the factors to control for.
Posted on 6/7/18 at 10:49 am to SwatMitchell
We have too many fricking people in this country as it is. The real problem is half of them or more are fricking worthless and living off the other half. Get rid off all the dead weight and we would really have something.
Posted on 6/7/18 at 11:12 am to GREENHEAD22
Yeah but at this point it’s cheaper to keep them quiet than a revolution/civil war. Unfortunately.
Posted on 6/7/18 at 11:15 am to GREENHEAD22
quote:
We have too many fricking people in this country as it is. The real problem is half of them or more are fricking worthless and living off the other half. Get rid off all the dead weight and we would really have something.
You must be of some German descent with this philosophy.
Posted on 6/7/18 at 12:12 pm to SwatMitchell
quote:
The presence of a precious natural resource might allow a country to do so.
not likely
you'd need something to cause productivity to boom
Posted on 6/7/18 at 12:17 pm to meansonny
quote:
Fix the trade deficit.
Sell something the world needs better than they can do it themselves.
Easier said than done when other countries have cheaper labor and state sponsored enterprise.
But there is your GDP output without relying on housing.
Yep.
Plus housing still matters - normal wear and tear (not broken windows but routine usage) can generate demand, and existing houses have to be retrofitted (houses didn't have high speed Internet 20 years ago or air conditioning 50 years ago).
Posted on 6/8/18 at 11:55 am to TheIndulger
quote:The issue in that exercise is isolating which low-GDP/low-population growth economies are that way because of population, and which are that way due to idiosyncratic elements of their economies.
I would think you could test by checking out countries that haven’t had much population growth and see if their gdp has grown over the same period.
The best recent historical (and ongoing) example of a developed economy with economic stagnation and low population growth is of course Japan. They've been at sub-0.3% annual population growth for essentially 3 decades and are now negative. They're now one of the slowest-growing developed economies - but how much of that is because the rest of Asia caught up in a lot of their core manufacturing competencies and the service industries they've shifted into are super competitive globally? Obviously population is a big factor, just hard to analyze the magnitude of the contribution as the world isn't in a vacuum.
I think inevitably technology and potential overpopulation will force a decoupling of the textbook GDP/population growth rate inter-linkage.
This post was edited on 6/8/18 at 11:58 am
Posted on 6/8/18 at 8:28 pm to SwatMitchell
The economy can continue to grow without a growth in consumers if the rate of technological progression can continue to result in an increased in productivity per capita AND if that translates into people consuming more per capita. The problem after that becomes a question of what do we consume once resources start to run out. Ultimately, we will have to change our views on growth someday.
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